Bonswabi

Global macro and market observations and opinions. NFA.

I encourage thoughtful disagreement and constructive conversation.

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

NOTICE

Whilst I've been largely inactive for some time. I will now be posting global macro observations and opinions.

Note, these are just observations and opinions.

I encourage your thoughtful disagreement and conversation.

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

@Barchart I reckon he said it all just to buy out some cheap property from scared owners that didn't know he wanted their land. lol

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

@jam_croissant Hey @jam_croissant, when Trump et al say the US has been ripped off and is getting a bad deal - ie. defense spending and foreign trade surpluses - there never seems to be mention of the fact that the privilege of the USD goes a very long way to offsets this.

What do you think?

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

@willywoo You are smart. This statement is not.

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

@BeenThereCap Do you believe GLP-1 is the primary driver here and not other fundamental ongoing issues with the merger and potential split?

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

@BraVoCycles I see your point however I'm not sure I agree that those example assets can be counted when for example you'd a) need buyers for that land which seems infeasible and b) time, money, effort to extract those resources.

So you can assign a value not not collateralize.

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

@ianbremmer Vietnam War should be on this list.

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

@tailor488058 @hkuppy @TheMarketHuddle Reading it now, thank you for this!

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

@porterstansb Simply could not agree more.

Have often wondered why this is not in focus.

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

@VolumeLeaders @RedPantyNightPA This is on my to-do list. Love your work!

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

If you didn’t already understand the current White House’s approach from their budget, Bessent is telling you 🔊 loud & clear, if you care to listen👂.

This is what he is saying in plain English:

- They want to slow demand in the real economy & hence slow inflation, by distributing less 💰 to people, via slowing wage growth and less social services to American’s in the median income on down?

How?

A/ Cut Government Employment
B/ Cut Medicare
C/ Cut Snap Food assistance and School Lunches
D/ Cut Low income Housing Assistance

Then, as these cuts take hold in the next 3-6 months…

- Meanwhile, they plan to in Equal amounts Increase supply side stimulus to get ‘private Industry moving,’ this will send money to the top 0.1% of the top wage earners. Not increasing inflation, while stimulating economic growth.

How?

A/ Massive Corporate Tax Cuts
B/ Gut the IRS and corporate financial oversight to reduce taxes further.
C/ Deregulate to allow corporations to operate untethered to increase profitability.
D/ Drill baby Drill

The demand side policies take effect quicker than the supply side, So… as cyclical deflation takes hold in 6 months or so… they plan to respond quickly with:

Loose Monetary Policy switching back from QT-> QE

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

IEI/HYG

High yield corp bonds (risky) being swapped for 3-7 yr Treasuries.

Rates down/neutral, risk off, growth down?

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

XLP/SPY

They're buying defensive consumer stocks over the SPY.

20-30% corrections occurred when last this happened.

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

BTC and Stables

Not much to say here other than, red vertical lines = BTC significant top. We're back at a very notable level in Stables

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

https://t.co/YFBO2NiCo1

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

@VolumeLeaders That said, this vol could indicate offloading of positions from Aug '24.

What do you reckon, @VolumeLeaders ?

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

@VolumeLeaders Looking back, these Daily vol spikes tended to precede bull runs.

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

Market and trading wisdom - not from me but the venerable (now private) X personality, Vitruvious.

Enrich yourself - https://t.co/J8FhZJLg9g

Credit to 'TheF%^&ingGasVolumes for compiling and Capital Flows for sharing.

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

BTC and Stables

Not much to say here other than, red vertical lines = BTC significant top. We're back at a very notable level in Stables

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

Short of a flash crash, I just don't see impending recession in the near term.

All that said, there is more pointing towards a bear market than a bull market. However that evidence needs to grow atop this house of cards before we get the serious shakes.

[Bonswabi @bonswabi]

Hate to say it but I've become bullish over the past week or so.
Where I was looking for a top, I think we surge into Q2 '25.
I want to see things get really crazy. I want people to act like it's never going to stop. I want all bears to turn into bulls - not just some.