36 years ago today:
Ireland’s World Cup anthem was released ahead of Italia 90.
Win, lose or draw, Big Jack’s Boys in Green were going to Put ‘Em Under Pressure...
@case_rsrch Philippe Sands (Respondent's apt) was just disqualified from another ICSID case - details not public - $SVB.TO tried the same as he's a known anti-western sandbagger.
P.S. Held - I have a higher val
cc: @MMichalek91
https://t.co/B5cC7So7kn
@kingfishcap@Michal16122021@JRMiningIntel From my query, none of the 108 ASX micro/nano cap goldies are at cash backing.
Worst is still at 60% premium, but on couple mil net cash.
And most ±$8m EVs (which is what LPK will be) are multiples of cash.
But that's today, time can change sentiment, time is the biggest risk...
@kingfishcap@Michal16122021@JRMiningIntel IMO there's no "if" - ICSID process is done, low $$, Peru can afford it, and have done so before (e.g. Bear Creek).
How many goldies trading below cash backing? Almost none on ASX, TSX - most x cash.
So why different here?
Obv time delay could alter macro sentiment, a risk...
@Michal16122021@JRMiningIntel@kingfishcap CVC waterfall (5th in the queue, CVR last)
Annulment deadline now passed so only collection now - sovereign collection risk zero given amount, so just time value.
Hopefully soon as with cash (32c base EV) + US gold assets could be pushing ~40c IMO.
$LPK.V
@Michal16122021@JRMiningIntel $LPK.V wins as expected - best case details & team I've seen - social licence rightly questioned by arbitors (up on YT).
Good news for pre & post CVR holders.
Latter get $8m+exp in stub value = EV >32c + gold prospect upside - time value
v Current SP 20c (even after >150% day)
$LPK.V begins collection - Peru either pays up or endures ignominy of asset seizure.
Trading at $5m vs $8m stub value + U.S. gold assets
Some idiot seller dumped from high 30s in 2 days post confirmed no annulment - should go back to it as that's FV IMO
Lupaka Gold Corp. says an ICSID Award dated June 30, 2025, is payable at about US$67M as of Oct 31, 2025. It has engaged an agency to identify assets for potential seizure if payment is not made. $LPK.V
Full release 👇 https://t.co/qyT4BNG8F4
$MYX.AX
Cosette easily sabotaging its own bid by threatening closure of manuf site so FIRB rejects it.
Not a labour government fan but how any gov accept a plant closure and loss of 200-300 jobs plus loss of business, tax, etc?
Peru drags it for 120 days but no annulment sought.
Understandable given best case I ever saw.
We're done, collection time (should be easy given S.A not Africa and Peru does settle).
$LPK.V
https://t.co/G8iBWuSw7l
@MMichalek91 IMO post CVRs looking at $8m+exp (EV ~32c + gold prospects)
Also, settlement risk is lower
- strong case
- Tanzania poor, Peru moderate
- previous similar (less egregious) ICSID case (Bear Creek) had no annulment, tho tactics can change
(BW gets 4x)
https://t.co/VPvfhYcSFg
Another pumped up NPV - seeking >$1.5bn ffs.
#pat $pat to win but claim limited by both devt stage & sunk costs (US$30m+) and JORC-compliant resource (Mahi & PM) onsold for just US$60m+ add-ons.
LF then to gobble up a decent chunk.
https://t.co/SQakFrp0qf
#PAT Panthera Resources remains my top portfolio pick. Why do I like it?
- Full exposure to the gold price
- Undervalued Mali gold asset
- A fully financed and advancing legal claim for a minimum of $1.6bn damages against the Govt of India
My base case is 10x in next 12 months, basis just the legal case advancing. Timetable set today: 1 year AHEAD of what I was expecting.
https://t.co/xz8dMMTPxN
$OMEX as expected the NPV was nowhere close.
Awarded US$37m.
But litigation funder (Drumcliff put in $20m from memory) will gobble it all up.
Final is a zero.
Puts ITM.
There's a couple more like that too...
Another pumped-up NPV is $OMEX - not even a PFS ffs.
Cost redacted too given disputed.
My research suggests low.
Comp v $100m MC 😬
Ann't soon - decision delayed so likely split decision - Philippe Sands has form and already dissented on a PN
$MON.V result is in - obv a win (TZ lolz) but only ⅓ of the pumped up NPV (again!).
US$27m gross award but let's guess that OBL takes half so US$13.5m or C$19m to company.
Equates to ~38c (ex p/tax), in line with expectations.
Early SHs pocket the win!
https://t.co/ys1QaNv77r
@MMichalek91 $MON.V 60c PT is ambitious IMO.
I was guessing mid/high 30s (quick calc).
IMO another where the NPV is pumped - but at least the equity is low and LF (OBL) cut is manageable (~US$12-15m) so there is a return.
Downside protection from TZ history (IDA,WINS) suggests bankable win.
@MMichalek91 IMO post CVRs looking at $8m+exp (EV ~32c + gold prospects)
Also, settlement risk is lower
- strong case
- Tanzania poor, Peru moderate
- previous similar (less egregious) ICSID case (Bear Creek) had no annulment, tho tactics can change
(BW gets 4x)
https://t.co/VPvfhYcSFg
@Michal16122021@JRMiningIntel $LPK.V wins as expected - best case details & team I've seen - social licence rightly questioned by arbitors (up on YT).
Good news for pre & post CVR holders.
Latter get $8m+exp in stub value = EV >32c + gold prospect upside - time value
v Current SP 20c (even after >150% day)