Boogers

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@ladoj39922 @tong_psy @Brad_Setser Flagship models have LiDAR

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser Japan is jess sui generis… they stagnated when no other East Asian economy did.

China is so far off from anything resembling Japan.

All East Asian economies have or have had demographic problems and financial crises.

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser China is becoming Japan is just about the laziest story rewritten every six months by the New York Times, WSJ, FT, Economist, WashPost, The Atlantic, The New Yorker etc for the past decade and a half.

Choose better sources, people. 🙄

https://t.co/SmBdQlWFE4

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser @tong_psy If China were to put out a “real GDP series”… 😬😬😬

It would be a $90 trillion economy (PPP).

https://t.co/1epmbOSTZp

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser @tong_psy I’ve been in this bidness for decades and was around when FAI was +20-25% for a decade. 😐

Look at electricity consumption and industrial output. Low single digit investment growth makes total sense.

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser @tong_psy I’m not commending or not commending.

I’m just saying it’s not apples to apples US (and other OECD) GDP growth.

We can either adjust China up or adjust the US down to get an accurate comparison.

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser @tong_psy And jess FYI, I am a gasoline in my veins car guy and was a self driving Luddite as well. Got the top of the line Huawei system because the waifu doesn’t really drive.

Bro… driving sucks. After you’ve experienced L2++ self driving… you’ll never want to do it again.

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser @tong_psy If China were to put out a “real GDP series”… 😬😬😬

It would be a $90 trillion economy (PPP).

https://t.co/1epmbOSTZp

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser @tong_psy Do you seriously not know the difference between fixed asset investment and gross fixed capital formation?

And why there would be a discrepancy between the two?

And which one is part of GDP and which one is not?

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser @tong_psy Average sales price of new cars in China and a few comps

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser @tong_psy Average sales price of new cars in China hasn’t changed since 2022 at about $25,000.

But the car offered is more than twice as good in 2026… as in it would sell for over $50,000 in 2022.

In GDP terms, the NBS records it as $25,000 in their conservative matched model system.

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser @tong_psy Less convenient to track is all other products and services but everyone on the ground knows it’s happening. Consumers now expect luxury hotel features at budget chains, for example.

China NBS is allergic to hedonic adjustments.

How much is left out of GDP growth vs a US basis?

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser @tong_psy I’m arguing that China’s goods and services are surging hedonically, especially after COVID.

EVs are just a convenient example easily tracked by model year, features and price… hedonically improving at 20% per annum rates...

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

😐

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser China is the first economy to hit turbocharged AI productivity growth.

You see exactly the promise and peril warned about…

Blistering improvement to products, deflation, low interest rates and unemployment.

The US’s AI pursuits have, so far, lowered standards of living.

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

😐

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@tong_psy @Brad_Setser The dude has no idea.

Tesla fanboys are wetting themselves over FSD… Americans get to choose from three models.

There are +140 Chinese EVs with L2++ city NOA self driving in China. Tesla can’t even get its system to work in China. Vision only is DOA against Chinese traffic.

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@tong_psy @Brad_Setser The dude has no idea.

Tesla fanboys are wetting themselves over FSD… Americans get to choose from three models.

There are +140 Chinese EVs with L2++ city NOA self driving in China. Tesla can’t even get its system to work in China. Vision only is DOA against Chinese traffic.

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@tong_psy @Brad_Setser It should be easy to explain to someone looking at China’s export data all day long.

Does he really think it’s because China is jess underpricing the competition?

China is absolutely out classing the competition.

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser “Haven’t changed” 😬

[Boogers @boogerscapybara]

@Brad_Setser No car is subsided $35,000.

I’m tell you dude… China’s consumer products… most visibly it’s EVs… but actually everything is running away from the global competition in hedonic improvements.

The Tesla Model 3 and Honda Pilot have changed in at least 4 years.