Adam

my hobbies are money. sports/options/crypto. a fun journal for my dumb journey through modern capitalism. tends to tweet at inflection points.

[Adam @boredombucks]

PSA: Yahoo Fantasy DFS is just as shark-filled as ever. Did some research of past contests, and the "Super Veteran" restriction does nothing to stop some of the best players in the industry, while targeting smaller players seemingly at random. 1/x

[Adam @boredombucks]

if you took a shot every time Kevin Warsh said TASK FORCE! your entire bloodline would have cirrhosis

[Adam @boredombucks]

tech stocks ripping on a peace deal holiday weekend

(when you finally added cheap hedges on Friday)

[Adam @boredombucks]

I just… don’t trust that for all of this, Trump just folds and gains basically nothing for wiping out trillions without driving rates lower.

Feels to me like this is a panicky, short-term political capitulation. Certainly not the *end* of a trade war.

[Adam @boredombucks]

No surprise, best trading day of my life along with… everyone.

2026/27 leaps bounced back in a huge way.

Started nibbling at like $SPX 5600 as a reference point, but kept applying put gains to rolling down strikes and shoving more chips in at 5400, 5100, 5000 points.

[Adam @boredombucks]

Today towards close I sold the ever-loving shit out of calls to turn leaps into spreads 40, 50, 80(!) points wide.

I don’t think this macro mess is over, so I get a small cushion until it is or volatility subsides.

Still have dry powder for some lower, improbable buy points.

[Adam @boredombucks]

Maybe we get too cute on Greenland and Denmark / EU puts on new trade restrictions or some sort of sanction?

Otherwise the lurking liquidity bazooka shoots us back to 6000.

[Adam @boredombucks]

Market stopped caring about inflation prints in the past two months.

It’s been all tariffs, all the time.

Telling character change that $SPX only moved about 8 points in 15 minutes after that tariff headline.

Hopefully no jinx, but it seems like risk is to the upside.

[Adam @boredombucks]

I’ve had one eye on the next shoe to drop for a month, with the thought that rates have to come down somehow (and market losses would be an efficient way to do so).

I just don’t see the risk needed to push us down 300-500 points, though black swans are surprising by nature.

[Adam @boredombucks]

@stevenplace Sending the cabinet to cable news to tell us how blasé they are about the recent decline seems pretty overt

[Adam @boredombucks]

Would the Fed freak out at 5100? What’s the magic number to destroy any recent wealth effect and ruin real consumer/business spending straight into recession? 4700? 4400?

Is my growing concern/worry a close marker for a bottom?

[Adam @boredombucks]

If everyone wants to chart $VIX bullish divergences and buy the dip… we haven’t reached a panic bottom.

But… I’m no better. Nibbling on 2027 leaps in beaten-down or enticing names like $DASH $WMT $GS $UBER $IBKR $HOOD for some eventual rubberband snap back higher.

[Adam @boredombucks]

Balancing this with wide $SPX put butterflies to hedge the hurt as I’m not convinced the lows are in (or where they’ll materialize). 5400 seems to be a mental magnet for folks.

But I don’t think that’s low enough to inspire rate-cutting panic favored by Trump.

[Adam @boredombucks]

@stevenplace Subtle warning as we play hokey-pokey with the 200-day

Overt warning when Bessent flips double birds to the camera during Power Lunch

[Adam @boredombucks]

Limping into January 2027 LEAPs in any event for the yugest of all pumps once the country is sufficiently taken down a couple pegs, which I’d anticipate being very soon. They’ve got the political capital until like June to blame it on Biden.

[Adam @boredombucks]

I’ve had a monster (for me) sized position in 3/21 5700/5400/5100 $SPX put butterflies I’ve been accumulating for the past few months.

Hedge turned directional play I’m reducing by narrowing wings by 50-75 points this morning.

200dma seemed like a fine target for now.

[Adam @boredombucks]

But March being down 3-4% in the context of potential new money flows and ok seasonality doesn’t inspire confidence.

Maybe Trump crashes us down to the early September 2024 support near 5400 (hence my short legs).

Maybe Yenmageddon August 2024 lows around 5100.

[Adam @boredombucks]

I’ve had these scribbles of an overarching thesis stuck to my monitor for months.

@jam_croissant is Biff Tannen with the almanac in hand.

[Adam @boredombucks]

Please? Pretty please?
$OKLO

[Adam @boredombucks]

Sold the last $PLTR piece I had, after rolling up/down/front/back for the last few months.

Ended with 6/20/25 100 call from 3.57 to 21.05.

I may regret it, but unit bias at 100 feels like a sticky magnet to me. And… it was 44 like three months ago.

[Adam @boredombucks]

2/4 6020 call 4.60 -> 18.10

Good enough for me, particularly with Trump social media risk in case someone dares point out how weakly he folded on tariffs

[Adam @boredombucks]

Hanging out in low ~10 delta $SPX plays pending some clarity on how Trump 2.0 operates.

2/4 6020 call
2/21 5500 put

If tariffs are weekend headline fodder, snapback gap fill on Turnaround Tuesday.

If they’re real, look out below.