bOta

Maverick - Capitalist - Investor - Trader - World Traveler - Tech Enthusiast - Futurist “I did not intend to get rich. I just wanted to get independent.”-Munger

[bOta @bOta880]

@saxena_puru Great interview! A must watch for investors.

[Yield Hunting @Yield_Hunting]

This is nonsensical. Capex is ALWAYS someone else's revenue. Spending equals income by construction, so "capex is being counted as revenue" is true of all capex in every era. Stated that baldly it is a truism, not a scandal. Every capital-goods cycle in history worked this way.

Railroads, telecom, and shale all booked supplier revenue now against buyer depreciation later. What is unusual today is the scale, the concentration (one dominant seller, a handful of dominant buyers), and the circular financing, which is a difference of degree, not a new accounting phenomenon.

"Expense capex at the same rate and earnings go negative" misapplies the matching principle. Capex is supposed to be capitalized and depreciated precisely because it produces multi-year assets; expensing it all immediately would understate earnings, not reveal a hidden truth.

"Eronification." Really? Enron was fraud: fabricated mark-to-market gains and sham off-balance-sheet vehicles hiding losses. Capitalize-and-depreciate is standard, fully disclosed GAAP.

[Yield Hunting @Yield_Hunting]

But higher rates do nothing to reduce CPI except curtail demand. Higher rates do not pump more oil.

Raising rates is like raising the toll on a freeway that is jammed because of an overturned truck. The higher toll never clears the wreck.

I understand the second-order effects but to me, instead of raising rates, fix the actual problem: the war with Iran.

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

@CapitaineInvest I'm not suggesting a policy...just telling you what the fallible humans on the FOMC will do if Dec oil is making new highs come 9/16...

Worth reading through Waller's May speech to understand the political/credibility pressure building...The "Bayesian view" of supply shocks.

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

Bonus: Tiny delights over big bright lights (Memento Mori):

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

5) Admitting you're wrong isn't a sign of weakness, it's a sign of strength.

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

4) Good Decision-making comes down to two things:

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

3) Complaining is not a solution:

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

2) Four Key Strengths to improve our lives:

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

1) Every ordinary moment is an opportunity to make the future easier or harder. It all depends on whether you're thinking clearly.

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

“Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish”

Our defaults encourage us to react without reasoning. This book will help you discover how to overcome your conscious reaction and make significantly better decisions.

5 lessons from the book:

[Vitruvius Republic 🇺🇸 @realMAG1775]

Data centers are the new steel mill.
They turn American power and land into compute. That compute runs hospitals, banks, the grid, the weather models, and the AI every rival is racing to own. If the racks are not here, the jobs and the control are not here either.
A campus is a payroll, electricians, operators, fiber crews, concrete, night-shift diners. Counties get a tax base that does not walk off. Utilities get a reason to build generation instead of letting the grid rot.
Yes they eat watts. Good. Load is how you justify nuclear, gas, and new lines. A country afraid of demand has already decided to import its future.
Build them here. Permit them fast. Tie them to new American power. Put Americans on the floor.

[Kurt R. Bauer @Kurt_R_Bauer]

"Microsoft’s new data center in Wisconsin will use about only four Olympic swimming pools of water this year, half as much as a car wash. Golf courses use about 30 times more water than data centers." https://t.co/6Gf9BXwHhC

[Rohan Paul @rohanpaul_ai]

WSJ just published a piece, on how Data centers can be a huge win for local communities.

In Loudoun County, removing them could mean about $5,800 more in annual property taxes for homeowners just to maintain the same services.

In Louisiana, Meta’s data-center tax revenue helped fund teacher bonuses of up to $50,000.

"Data centers also generate scant pollution. Their CO2 emissions mainly stem from the natural gas plants that power them. But modern gas generators produce upward of 90% less fine particulate matter, sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide than a steel mill."

[Rohan Paul @rohanpaul_ai]

President Trump just posted this on his Truthsocial, saying communities that don’t build data centers will be ‘backwards and poor’

"The only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want Data Centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor. If they want to be successful and rich, with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place, let Data Reign. The good news is that there are plenty of other places that want them. If we kill the Golden Goose, you will only have yourselves to blame. China could not be happier with this anti Data Center movement. Actually, they can’t believe it is happening! President DJT"

[Rohan Paul @rohanpaul_ai]

This is indeed how it's done for data center.

Columbia County is showing how a $17B data center of Google can become a direct economic win for residents.

Google’s planned campus comes with $40M a year in county payments for 7 years, more than the $25M Columbia County currently collects from homestead property taxes.

The deal also makes Google cover its energy costs and subjects the site to closed-loop cooling, residential buffers and noise limits.

[AF Post @AFpost]

Columbia County, Georgia, is nearing a deal with Google that would nearly double its $25M property tax revenues ($40M) allowing the county to end its residential property tax thanks to a massive data center.

Follow: @AFpost

[dnap @dnapway]

Doug Leone reveals Sequoia owned 20% of Nvidia and 10% of Google, and they would have made half a trillion dollars if they held either

"Every venture investor has made the mistake of selling their winners too early, every single venture investor, because if you look at the great companies, they've compounded 20 years after the IPO."

"Nvidia or Google or Meta, if you had a little sniffer that this thing had essentially an unbounded market for many years, you should never sell a share."

"You can make way more money holding those, because if you're compounding a $5 billion gain, that can turn into a $50 billion gain."

"If we held Google or Nvidia, that'd be half a trillion dollars, and there's no investments that can give you that."

"We owned 20% of Nvidia. Think about that. We owned 10% of Google. Apple, are you kidding me? We were the first investor in Apple. Cisco, we owned a quarter of Cisco Systems."

"Those are big ownerships in very big companies, but we all made that mistake."

[dnap @dnapway]

Doug Leone reveals he woke up one day and sold his sports cars just to simplify his life

"I've gone full cycle and have spoiled myself with material things, realized they don't make me happy at all, and got rid of a whole bunch of them. I sold my fancy cars at great discount. I just wanted them gone."

"One day I woke up, I just didn't wanna have cars with vowels at the end of the name. I just got rid of them. I just wanted a more simple life."

"I've shedded assets on purpose just to simplify my life, and get down to the really important things, which are really, at the end of the day, is your family and friends. That's really the most important thing."

"I'm quite miserable at Sequoia right now, not because of what anybody else does, because I feel that three months into it, I'm really good for nothing."

[dnap @dnapway]

Gavin Baker says the data center boom is probably the best thing to ever happen to working class Americans

"Going to college might be significantly NPV (net present value) negative now, because you can go learn how to be an electrician, a plumber, an HVAC tech, and make ungodly amounts of money. So this has been amazing for working class Americans."

“When a data center goes in, it transforms the town. Tax revenue doesn't double, it 10x's. And it is revitalizing all of these dying small towns all over America. We're getting much better at addressing the environmental stuff. Generally they use natural gas, which is a pretty clean fuel."

"Loudoun County, Virginia, which is the highest per capita income county in the US, and it has the highest density of data centers. And they make a tremendous amount of tax revenue from data centers."

"There is an organized CCP-funded campaign against data centers here in America. A lot of it gets laundered through TikTok. And it's just tragic because the other thing that's happening is this is re-industrializing America.”

“We are re-industrializing America and it's awesome. This is what everyone in both parties has wanted for a long time."

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

My short answer is no.

The 2024 cycle was different b/c the curve was priced for recession...Had never been that inverted prior to a cut cycle. So, the Fed (along w/ better data) caused the curve to begin normalizing...Many misinterpreted this as the bond market rejecting the cuts. I wrote a lot about this in real time...Can search my feed if curious.