Shay Bouchles

Co-founder & CEO, @PlayMindLabs
Behavioral analytics for prediction markets and sportsbooks

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

@jspujji Hi I am very interested! Won’t let me DM you though!

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

A quiet VIP is not a lapsed VIP.

A quiet VIP account is not a lapsed account. It is an account that made a decision you did not see happen.

Reply with the last one you caught in time.

#PredictionMarkets

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

@novexztr hi!!! this sounds amazing!

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

Tomorrow at 2pm a lot of traders find out they were wrong at the same second.

The next twenty minutes matter more than the trade. Some close out. Some double down at worse prices because they can't accept the print.

That second group is who churns.

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

@bitfunded 13

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

@AlphaAgentcall Yes

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

Being right and losing a contract aren’t mutually exclusive. What interests me is that traders can’t feel the difference in the moment: resolution risk and price risk produce identical behavior on the way down. That reaction is measurable well before the account blows up.

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

@Keywest_Felix $5000 would be amazing

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

@novexztr Absolutely yes. Never seen that much at once in my life

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

@novexztr 10,000

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

@moonpay I go to their office building in Manhattan to cowork every Friday!

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

@Prince_of_web3 Hi!

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

The day after a marquee event is the highest-churn window a prediction market has.

Everyone measures the traffic spike. Almost nobody measures who never comes back.

Retention is decided in the comedown, not the peak.

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

@Careerbuddha111 Hi, vibecoder somewhere in between vibecoder and coder. Backend focused

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

Traders: Ever notice your price-checking spikes right before you make a dumb move?
Checking frequency is one of the best (and most ignored) behavioral signals. It warns you before the mistake.
Who’s guilty this week? 👀

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

Favorite-longshot bias shows up in every betting market ever studied. Prediction markets were supposed to be immune, where anyone can make markets. They’re not. I’ve watched World Cup longshots on Kalshi trade at 2-3x fair value. Retail overpays for lottery-shaped contracts.

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

@sflorimm Yea I think so. I have done tons of hackathons and projects, and I think only 1 is actually going somewhere

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

World Cup final week. Watch how prices behave: liquidity floods in, spreads tighten, and the retail money that arrives last is the most emotional money in the market. That's not a metaphor. It's measurable.

Just experienced it myself watching France v Spain

[Shay Bouchles @bouchles]

Ok I would think B because of its thoroughness. The type= should allow for a larger user base. Also there is nothing in A to deal with Orders files, only Profile and Settings

These are my educated guesses as a vibecoder trying to learn backend

[Floro S. @sflorimm]

Backend Interview Question:

One of these API designs scales much better.

Which one are you choosing?