BoxoutBreaks

Card collector & breaker. Certified cardboard enjoyer.
fka RyanEVBets - $60k+ lifetime +EV sports bettor.
Come rip with me on @Whatnot ⬇️

[BoxoutBreaks @BoxoutBreaks]

Back from the void 😳 Been a wild few months: I got engaged, work’s been busy, and I’ve gone deep into the sports card hobby.

Rebranding this account from betting → sports cards & breaking.

Yes I’m still betting. Yes I’m still him. Just exploring a new passion.

Find me Live on Whatnot: @boxoutbreaks ⬇️

https://t.co/nTF99R2ttm

[Underdog NBA @UnderdogNBA]

JAYLEN BROWN POSTER

...and gets a technical foul for it.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

2026 Bowman Baseball Analysis & Deep Dive

Bowman season doesn’t sleep.

Before the wax from Bowman Basketball even cools, Topps is already back with baseball…because apparently we’re all just supposed to reload the bankroll and keep ripping.

And every year, Bowman mostly sticks to the script…at least on the baseball side. If you saw my Basketball breakdown, you know how that played out. Hobby and Jumbo carried the weight. Value and Mega, not so much. With release day tomorrow, rippers are about to find definitively that the Squatch was onto something.

But Bowman Baseball has always had one wildcard…

Year after year, value boxes have managed to provide…GASP…actual value. They’ve built a reputation as the budget rip that actually made some sense. Not amazing…just not lighting money on fire.

This year? I’ve got some fairly definitive answers on whether that reputation survives. Hang tight, prospector. We’ll get there.

Welcome to 2026 Bowman Baseball.

Part 1: The Basics

First, let’s talk about what actually changed…because there’s a decent amount of it this year.

Hobby boxes got the Ozempic treatment. They’ve been trimmed from 24 packs of 8 cards down to 20 packs.
Value boxes joined the party as well, now sitting at 6 packs of 10 cards instead of 12 cards per pack.
Jumbo is a little hazy right now. Checklist sites still have them at 12 packs of 28 cards. I haven’t seen any official box rendering to confirm that, and with Bowman Basketball rolling out at 12 packs of 25 cards, there’s at least a chance baseball follows suit.

For now, I’m rolling with 28 cards per pack based on data currently available. Even if that ends up being off, it won’t impact the hit fundamentals at all…just some of the base card calculations.

Mega boxes also got a bit of a facelift. Instead of the usual base packs plus 2 Mojo packs setup, it looks like we’re getting 6 packs of 7 cards, with Mojo parallels mixed directly into those packs.

So from an odds standpoint, we’re on solid ground for all hit calculations.

The one piece I can’t fully lock in yet is the base card breakdown per player across paper base, paper prospects, and chrome prospects. I do have total base production accounted for, so once pack dynamics are confirmed, I’ll be able to dial that in pretty quickly.

Pre-order took place on April 13th with the following prices:
Hobby- $240
Jumbo- $520
Value boxes- $30
Megas- $50

Actual release date is set for May 13, and I would expect those prices to be a tick higher on the Hobby/Jumbo side.

Part 2: Odds Sheet Autopsy

Total cards in the product:
128,365,094

This. Is. Significant. Though it may not seem like it at first. Here's why:

2025 Bowman Total Cards: 152,262,136
YOY: -15.7%

The crazy thing is, production of sealed product is very similar to last year. This shows the massive effects that a little trimming here and there can have on total production.

Total cards by card type:
Autos:
2026- 585,371
2025- 634,616
YOY: -7.8%

Parallels:
2026- 10,908,836
2025- 8,343,680
YOY: +30.7%

Inserts:
2026- 10,278,733
2025- 10,554,088
YOY : -2.6%

Total Base Cards (Combination of Base Paper, Paper Prospects, & Base Chrome Prospects):
2026- 106,592,153
2025- 132,729,751
YOY: -19.7%

Total Production by Format:
Hobby- 116,412 boxes (9,701 cases)
YOY: -1.4%
Jumbo- 61,040 boxes (7,630 cases)
YOY: +0.6%
Breaker's Delight- 33,000 boxes (5,500 cases)
YOY: +4.8%
Value Boxes- 982,333 (24,558 cases)
YOY: -10.4%
Megas- 713,325 (35,666 cases)
YOY: +18.9%

Hit Rates:
Hobby- 1 Auto, 8.5 parallels, 18.9 inserts, 3 numbered cards
Jumbo- 3 Autos, 7.2 parallels, 30.2 inserts, 4 numbered cards
Breaker's Delight- 2 Autos, 4.6 parallels, 1 insert, 3.6 numbered cards
Value- 1 Auto per 9.9 boxes (4 Autos/case), 1.9 parallels, 5.3 inserts, 0.76 numbered cards (76% of Value Boxes should produce a # card)
Mega- 1 Auto per 5.4 boxes (3.7 Autos/case), 10.3 parallels (includes 6 Mojos, 2 Lazer per box), 1.4 inserts, 0.8 numbered cards (80% of boxes should produce a # card)

A couple important additions to this segment:
1) Of the total autos in the product, numbered vs unnumbered autos are split almost exactly 50% ea.

2) Non-Chrome Paper Autos are exclusive to Value boxes. Of all autos inserted into Value boxes, 55.5% are paper autos. So at a rate of ~4 autos per Value Box case, I would expect at least 2 of them to be Paper Autos.

Part 3: Value Map
(Pricing based on pre-order pricing for Jumbo/Hobby and MSRP on Retail formats. Breaker's Delight not included as it's generally not available to the public.)

$/card:
1) Value- 50¢
2) Mega- $1.19
3) Hobby- $1.50

$/parallel:
1) Mega- $4.64
2) Value- $17.05
3) Hobby- $28.37

$/Auto:
1) Jumbo- $173.33
2) Hobby- $240.00
3) Mega- $270.00
4) Value- $297.60

$/# Card:
1) Value- $39.47
2) Mega- $63.29
3) Hobby- $80.00
4) Jumbo- $130.00

Part 4: Let’s Play a Little Game

I don’t think we have enough numbers yet, so let’s run a quick comparison.

Imagine you’ve got the itch to rip, and your options are: a 40-box case of Value Boxes ($1200), or the equivalent spend in Hobby or Jumbo.

(You might notice I left out Megas. That’s intentional. I just don’t think they’re good enough to be in this conversation. Yes, they dominate from a $/parallel standpoint, but that’s only because you’re getting 6 Mojos & 2 Lazers per box. So unless you’re chasing low-end, unnumbered parallels and non-1st Bowman autos, they’re going to firmly plant themselves at the bottom of the format value list.)

Here’s what you could expect from ripping a near-equivalent value of each (results will vary, of course):

2 Jumbos ($1040) – 6 Autos, 14.4 Parallels, 8 #’d cards

5 Hobby boxes ($1200) – 5 Autos, 42 Parallels, 15 #’d cards

1 Case (40) Value Boxes ($1200) – 4 Autos (2 Paper, 2 Chrome), 70 Parallels, 30 #’d cards

These results are pretty staggering.

To be clear, it’s typical for lower-numbered variants to show up more heavily in Hobby and Jumbo. But the sheer volume of parallels and numbered cards you’re getting out of Value, over a decent sample size, is hard to ignore. That kind of volume creates a pretty solid floor for rippers of this product.

Part 5: Best Formats

I already laid out the case for Value Boxes. Though Value Box autos did take a step back this year (1 per 10 boxes vs. 1 per 6 last year), but let’s zoom in on where each format actually wins.

For autos, nothing changes.
Jumbos are still the most cost-effective path. Jumbos gonna Jumbo.

For parallels and common inserts?
It’s not even close. Value Boxes run laps around everything. For any parallel that exists in Value, they offer the cheapest pull rate across the board.
Now, there are some exceptions. Certain Xfractors, Shimmers, and Waves aren’t available in Value. If that’s what you’re chasing, Hobby becomes your best bet and clears Jumbo in that department.

Also of note, Snack Packs are a thing again in 2026. If you like rare refractors featuring ballpark eats, these are ONLY pullable from Hobby boxes and should land 1 in ~25 cases. To avoid weighing shenanigans, I would probably avoid ebay if I'm purchasing sealed hobby boxes.

But let’s get to the real question…

What about the nukes?

As always, Topps threw some truly desirable inserts in this Bowman release: Anime, Etched in Glass, Bowman Spotlights, Crystallized, Final Draft, and the new Patchwork inserts. (And for those wondering, no GPKs here like we saw in Basketball.)

Here’s where things get interesting.

Almost all of these are live in Value Boxes (only exception being Orange Crystallized /25). And not only are they possible…

Value is actually the most cost-effective way to pull them.

Yes, even the case-hit level stuff!

Outside of the ultra-rare Anime parallels (Black /10, Red /5, Kanji /5, and the Super), Value Boxes give you the best shot per dollar at hitting these. Panini fanboyss are going to hate that.

“Nukes shouldn’t come from retail.”
I get it. But from a pure numbers standpoint? This is a massive win for the average ripper. And honestly...I applaud Topps for that.

Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do?

You already know the deal…Squatch likes to rip.
And this time?
Squatch is ripping Value Boxes.

But if you’ve been following me, you also know I like to identify products that are primed to move sealed. This is where I’ll throw in a word of caution:

I don’t expect this one to double out of the gate like some of the recent hype releases. Bowman doesn’t usually work like that. The sealed market here is a slow burn. It often softens early, then gradually climbs as the top prospects start separating themselves. And I gotta say, that may be for the best. I truly don't want Bowman to double in price off the rip. If it does, it should make Value Boxes even more tantalizing because they likely won't spike in price.

If you’re planning to flip, you might be waiting a while.

We’ve seen this before. Even 2023 and 2024 Bowman Draft- both loaded with monster 1st Bowman checklists in hindsight- sat flat (and in some cases dipped below drop pricing) before they really started to move.

So if you’re buying to hold sealed, just understand what you’re signing up for. These might collect dust for a bit, and that's ok. But give them time to marinate and you’ll almost certainly be rewarded.

Overall, this is a Squatch approved product.

Rip it. Hold it. Stack it.

Just don’t expect a quick flip to bail you out.

Part 7: Print Runs
(Per Player Base Production to be added as pack dynamics become available.)

Unnumbered Parallels:
League Logofractors (Hobby only)- ~65 ea
Lazer Refractors (Mega only)- ~9,450 ea
Xfractors (Hobby only)- ~775 ea
Gumball/Sunflower Seeds (Hobby only)- 11 ea
Peanuts/Popcorn (Hobby only)- 10 ea
Reptilian Refractors- ~8,190 ea
Bowman Logo Pattern- ~100 ea
Etched in Glass Variation- ~350 ea
Red RC Variation (40 card CL)- ~20,690 ea
Mojo Refractors (Mega Box only-100 card CL)- ~42,800 ea
Mojo Chrome Prospects Image Variations (10 card CL)- ~150 ea
Mojo Base Chrome Image Variations (10 card CL)- ~150 ea

Unnumbered Inserts:
Scouts' Top 100 (100 card CL)- ~34,900 ea
Electric Sluggers (25 card CL)- ~69,630 ea
Under the Radar (20 card CL)- ~80,900 ea
Bowman Sterling (15 card CL)- ~107,805 ea
Power Chords (25 card CL)- ~29,070 ea
Electric Sluggers Mojo (Mega Box only)- ~9,500 ea
Bowman Sterling Mojo (Mega Box only)- ~47,555 ea
Mega Futures (Mega Box Only- 25 card CL)- ~2,140 ea

Rare Inserts:
Patchwork (30 card CL)- ~185 ea
Anime (29 card CL)- ~190 ea
Anime Kanji Variation (7 card CL)- 5 ea
Bowman Spotlights (15 card CL)- ~140 ea
Crystallized (20 card CL)- ~100 ea
Final Draft (20 card CL)- ~185 ea

Unnumbered Autos:
Chrome Prospect Autos (87 card CL)- ~1,880 ea
Chrome Rookie Autos (13 card CL)- ~500 ea
Paper Prospect Retail Autos (31 card CL)- ~700 ea
Paper Rookies & Vets Retail Autos (35 card CL)- ~200 ea
Prospect Mojo Autos (60 card CL)- ~1,490 ea
Rookie Mojo Autos (10 card CL)- ~120 ea
Mojo Image Variation Autos (6 card CL)- 25 ea
Mojo Prospect Image Variation Autos (7 card CL)- 25 ea
Ultimate Auto Book Redemption Card (1 card CL)- 10 ea
All-America Game Autos (1 card CL)- ~199 ea
All-America Game Red Ink Autos- 10 ea
Chrome Prospect Auto B&W Shimmer (87 card CL)- 11 ea
Mojo Prospect B&W Autos (60 card CL)- 15 ea
Mojo Rookies B&W Autos (10 card CL)- 15 ea

#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026Bowman

[BoxoutBreaks @BoxoutBreaks]

@CardPurchaser How many more sets are the gonna milk? 😂😂

[BoxoutBreaks @BoxoutBreaks]

@cardrestocks Going for 2 ... let's see if we can finally get one 🤞

[Flip @cardrestocks]

Product drop 👇 #TOPPS #AD

$599.99 : https://t.co/LALqE8xfb7

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

2025/26 Bowman Basketball Analysis & Deep Dive

Bowman explodes back on to the basketball scene for the first time since 2009. On the surface, you’ll recognize some familiar Bowman DNA. If you’ve been ripping Bowman flagship baseball over the past several years, you’ll feel somewhat at home. But once you start peeling back layers, this thing gets more complex in a hurry and will keep even the most seasoned Bowman hype men on their toes.
The dynamics are a mashup of Chrome, Paper, Pro, & NIL names, all thrown together in one big happy product, but all kept distinctly separate. This one will need some updating once live data starts rolling in. That said, there's more than enough here to give collectors some guidance on where value might live when Bowman drops on Wednesday, April 22.

So let's crack this thing open and see what we're working with. Welcome to 2025/26 Bowman Basketball.

The basics:
Pre-orders went up on March 24th at $340/Hobby, $600/Jumbo, $60/Mega, and $30/Value Box. These will likely be a touch higher on drop day, but these are the prices I will go off of for now.

Total cards in the product:
111,821,248

It makes sense to compare to it's closest comp, 2025 Bowman Baseball, which came in at 152,262,136 total cards. This represents 26.6% less production than the most recent Bowman baseball flagship.

Total Base production:
98,066,458

Here is the biggest cloudy area at this time. Though I can calculate pretty specifically how much base is produced in total, there is not enough data available for me to break that down further into Chrome vs Paper or Pro vs NIL names. That will have to wait until we see live rips.

I can tell you that base makes up 87.7% of the product, which is a noticeable drop from Bowman baseball (92.5%). That shift comes from Topps leaning hard into the “more parallels is better” philosophy.

Bowman NBA checks in at 6,682,114 total parallels compared to 2,969,356 in 2025 Bowman MLB, a 125% increase- more than double the parallels on a significantly smaller product overall. Though I’m not ready to call that good or bad just yet. The insertion of more parallels doesn't automatically improve or ruin a product. It’s always case by case.

Total production by format and it's comparison to the same SKU in 2025 Bowman Baseball:

Hobby- 108,312 boxes (9,026 cases) <-8.2%>
Jumbo- 63,856 boxes (7,982 cases) <-5.2%>
Breaker's Delight- 25,000 boxes (4,167 cases) <-20.6%>
Value- 980,680 boxes (24,517 cases) <-10.5%>
Mega- 388,333 boxes (19,417 cases) <-35.3%>
Bulk packs- 50,000

Overall, format production is fairly in line with 2025 Bowman Baseball, with the biggest difference showing up in Mega box output.

On the surface, that would suggest availability should mirror what we saw with Bowman MLB. But the real variable here is demand. I expect basketball demand to outpace baseball, so even with somewhat similar print runs, this could be tougher to find and may not sit on shelves very long.

If you want Bowman NBA and you see it in the wild, it’s probably worth grabbing. It may not be there next time. That said, let’s not get carried away. This isn’t Chrome NBA or NFL-level frenzy. Not even close.

Calculated Hit Rates:
Hobby- 2 Autos, 8 parallels, 10 inserts, 3.4 numbered cards
Jumbo- 4 Autos, 13.2 parallels, 17.5 inserts, 6 numbered cards
Breaker's- 3 Autos, 3.4 parallels, 1 insert, 2.6 numbered cards
Value- 1 auto per 8.6 boxes (4.65/case), 2 parallels, 4 inserts, 1 # card per 2.7 boxes
Mega- 1 auto per 4.7 boxes, 7.4 parallels, 1 insert, 1.4 # cards
Bulk- 1 auto per 12.2 packs, 0.5 parallels/pack, 1.5 inserts/pack, 1 # card per 3 packs

Format highlights:
1) Frustratingly, the shrinkflation is real with this product. I suspect it's a slightly different animal from baseball, so we can't really expect it to have the same box dynamics. But it sure would be nice if they weren't smaller.
Hobby boxes have changed from 24 packs of 8 cards to 20 packs of 8. Also, Jumbo boxes have changed from 12 packs of 28 to 12 packs of 24. And we couldn't keep Value Boxes immune to the changes. They shrank from 6 packs of 12 to 6 packs of 10.
2) Mega box dynamics have also changed from the norm. They're not 4 or 5 base packs and 2 Mojo packs. The Mojo parallels look to be dispersed throughout all 6 packs of the box at a rate of 1 per pack. So a Mega box should yield 6 Mojo parallels rather than the 10 we have come to expect. I suspect it's pretty obvious why this change was made.
3) Though they didn't technically add any new parallel colors to the Mojos this round (there are still 15 parallels of Mojo Refractors), I believe this is far too many for the Megas to absorb cleanly and they will feel just as watered down as they have in recent iterations.
Interestingly, their one saving grace is autos are easier than they were in Bowman MLB Megas. Total Mojo autos in NBA is 82,335. Total for MLB Megas was 83,924. Which means a very similar number of autos inserted into 35% fewer boxes, bringing the auto hit rate down from 1 per 7.15 boxes in baseball to 1 per 4.72 boxes in basketball. This is a welcome change, but I don't think it will be enough to call the Megas a good value at $60. 1.4 high serial numbered parallels per box and an auto in every 5th box isn't going to move the dial significantly.
4) That leads me to the biggest format question mark...
Bulk packs. This is not a new format by any means. We often find Bulk packs listed on the odds, and we find that they eventually show up as some mixed pack or super box format, or possibly a gravity feed box with loose packs for purchase. It's hard to tell exactly, but when we see an odd format of Bowman Basketball show up in stores, we will know. These look to have something like 14 cards/pack and could possibly be stand-alone but could also be bundled in with another product.
Now, this is important because usually when we see bulk packs they're just filler and not actually a viable format that can compete with the usual suspects in hit density. However, that is not the case this time. In fact, Bulk packs look to be the strongest format for all the variants possible to pull from them. Granted, you can't pull everything from them. However, almost everything that can be pulled from a Value Box can also be pulled from Bulk packs. This includes many auto subsets and rare inserts like Anime, GPK, and Retrofractors.

Value Map:
These will all be based on the box pricing listed above with one exception. I cannot include Bulk Packs in this list because I can't speculate on their pricing. But in my calculations, I've tried plugging multiple differenct prices in for them and as long as they're $20/pack or less, they are a solid buy and would lead just about every category. If they end up being a bundled product, I suspect pricing will be more like $5-$10/pack. If so, that's even better. But you won't see them on this list for that reason.

$/card
1) Value- 50¢
2) Mega- $1.43
3) Jumbo- $2.08
4) Hobby- $2.13

$/parallel
1) Mega- $8.08
2) Value- $15
3) Hobby- $43.15
4) Jumbo- $45.39

$/Auto
1) Jumbo- $150
2) Hobby- $170
3) Breaker's- $183.33
4) Value- $257.10

$/# Card
1) Mega- $43.17
2) Value- $81.30
3) Jumbo- $100
4) Hobby- $101.49

Best formats:

If you're ripping this product and you don't have a history with Flagship Bowman, I want you to understand that traditionally 71% of the product is essentially worthless paper cards. This is by no means a predominantly Chrome release. There are paper parallels, but they only hold a portion of the value of similar Chrome parallels. And unless you're a die-hard NIL basketball fan, there will likely be a lot of names you don't recognize. Such is Bowman.
Overall the checklist is pretty great with the dynamic NBA rookie class, which will be represented well. There is also a 50-card checklist of Red RCs, of which having the Rookie of the Year will land you a cool $100 in Fanatics cash. I'm pretty sure we can narrow that down to two potential ROY winners, so the rest will just be fluff.
Topps does a great job of spotlighting all the cool & shiny stuff that can come from some of these boxes. And there are some amazing pieces. But you have to understand these boxes are not the exciting rip it may appear if you haven't experienced them before. They can even be, dare I say, boring?
Picking a "best format" is not nearly as cut-and-dry as it usually is. Between Hobby, Jumbo, and Value, they all have their strengths and weaknesses. It’s tough to call any of them a clear winner from a ripping standpoint. In past Bowman releases, plenty of rippers have sworn by the efficiency of Value boxes, but I’m just not seeing it here. Value boxes are worse than the hobby formats almost across the board, it just happens to look better from a “$ per parallel” perspective.
I’m pretty much ruling out Mega Boxes. Unless, by some miracle, the Mojo autos carry the “1st Bowman” designation, that would go a long way toward saving them. But that hasn’t been the case in a long time, and I don’t expect it to change now.

At $340/$600, Hobby and Jumbo are nearly identical in value. Jumbo gets the slight edge for autos since you’re getting twice as many for not quite double the price. Hobby, on the other hand, is a bit better for most of the desirable inserts. An added benefit of going Hobby/Jumbo over retail is the autos will be all Chrome. In Value Boxes, about 40% of the autos will be far more undesirable paper autos. Of the two, it’s tough to pick a true winner because everything is so close, but if I had to lean, I’d go Jumbo with Hobby right behind. I can’t really recommend Value or Megas here.

But I keep coming back to these mysterious Bulk packs. I’m very curious to see how these show up. When they hit the market and you’re looking to rip, I think that’s the play. Hard to fully endorse something without knowing the format details, but I just don’t see a world where these presumably 14-card packs are more than $20 each. If they land in some kind of super box format at $10 per pack or less, it’s a no-brainer.

From a flipping or stashing standpoint, Hobby & Jumbo formats will very likely increase considerably in value. New products have been a feeding frenzy lately. Will these spike like the Chrome releases as of late? I don't see that happening. They will certainly increase, but I'm keeping my expectations tempered. Though I do think it will be worthwhile to snag some Hobby or Jumbo and sit on them for a bit if that's how you hobby. I don't see it being a losing play.

Print runs

Unnumbered Parallels:
Base Chrome Mini-Diamond- ~360 ea
Base Chrome Reptilian- ~6,040 ea
Base Chrome Geometric- ~45 ea
Base Chrome Mojo- ~5,825 ea
Base Chrome Rookie Red RC- ~8,025 ea
Chrome Prospect Mini-Diamond- ~360 ea
Chrome Prospect Reptilian- ~10,800 ea
Chrome Prospect Geometric- ~50 ea
Chrome Prospect Mojo- ~11,650 ea

Unnumbered Inserts:
Talent Tracker (25 card CL)- ~22,470 ea
Talent Tracker Refractor- ~4,025 ea
Talent Tracker Geometric- ~15 ea
Gen Next (25 card CL)- ~22,470 ea
Gen Next Refractor- ~4,025 ea
Gen Next Geometric- ~15 ea
Very Important Prospects (25 card CL)- ~22,470 ea
Very Important Prospects Refractor- ~4,025 ea
Very Important Prospects Geometric- ~15 ea
Bowman Verified (25 card CL)- ~22,470 ea
Bowman Verified Refractor- ~4,025 ea
Bowman Verified Geometric- ~15 ea
ROY Favorites (15 card CL)- ~27,040 ea
ROY Favorites Refractor- ~4,070 ea
ROY Favorites Geometric- ~15 ea
Hobby Stars (15 card CL)- ~27,040 ea
Hoby Stars Refractor- ~4,070 ea
Hobby Stars Geometric- ~15 ea
Young Kings (25 card CL)- ~26,705 ea
Young Kings Refractor- ~4,025 ea
Young Kings Geometric- ~15 ea
Rockstar Rookies (20 card CL)- ~27,120 ea
Rockstar Rookies Refractor- ~4,045 ea
Rockstar Rookies Geometric- ~15 ea
Greatness Loading (25 card CL)- ~26,705 ea
Greatness Loading Refractor- ~4,025 ea
Greatness Loading Geometric- ~15 ea
Base Chrome Etched in Glass Variation- ~360 ea
Chrome Prospect Etched in Glass Variation- ~360 ea
Base Chrome Retrofractor- ~240 ea
Spotlights NBA- ~360 ea
Spotlights NIL- ~360 ea
Anime NBA- ~140 ea
Anime NIL- ~195 ea
Garbage Pail Kids NBA- ~100 ea
Garbage Pail Kids NIL- ~100 ea
Crystalized NBA- ~300 ea
Crystalized NIL- ~300 ea
Mega Rookies (25 card CL)- ~7,170 ea
Mega Prospects (25 card CL)- ~7,170 ea

Unnumbered Autos:
Future Script (25 card CL)- ~110 ea
Buzz Factor (25 card CL)- ~145 ea
Opening Statement Signatures (25 card CL)- ~120 ea
Timeless Touch Signatures (25 card CL)- ~3,260 ea
Base Paper Retail Autos (99 card CL)- ~16 ea (Not a typo)
Base Chrome Autos (98 card CL)- ~915 ea
Base Chrome Auto Refractors- ~275 ea
Base Chrome Auto Geometric- ~65 ea
Paper Prospect Retail Auto (100 card CL)- ~80 ea
Chrome Prospect Auto (99 card CL)- ~780 ea
Base Chrome Auto Mojo (98 card CL)- ~125 ea
Chrome Prospect Auto Mojo (99 card CL)- ~90 ea

#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2025BowmanBasketball

[BoxoutBreaks @BoxoutBreaks]

@cardrestocks My losing entry has been submitted. 👍

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

2025 Topps Chrome NFL Analysis & Deep Dive

With NFL Chrome being one of the most hyped releases of the year, I figure there might be a few more eyeballs than usual on this one.

So maybe we tone it down a bit. Be professional. Show some class. Talk about all the things we appreciate about this long-awaited, masterful Chrome release. Keep it clean. Keep it polished. Ease people into the Squatch experience.

Yeah…that sounds like the responsible thing to do.

And that's precisely why...…we’re not doing that.

We’re cranking the spice all the way up.

Because after all this time, Chrome Football is finally here. And there's a lot going on with this monstrosity. Some of it could even be called good.

But there’s also a whole lot in this product that’s got the Squatch's butt hole puckering.

So grab a Snickers. This one's massive. And may have a surprise or two.

Welcome to 2025 Topps Chrome NFL.

If you need more product breakdowns like this in your life, please consider following me on Substack, where I have my entire archive of 100+ product breakdowns in a much more navigable format.
https://t.co/ItcNNc6mz9

Total cards in the product:
97,218,332

Let's compare this to its two closest Chrome cousins:

2025 Topps Chrome MLB- 67,711,000 total cards

2025/26 Topps Chrome NBA- 89,850,600 total cards

To absolutely no one's surprise, this one beats them both. NBA Chrome broke the printing presses for a Chrome release. This one ran over them with a bulldozer. Somehow, I don't think this surprises too many people. You want to know something that will?

Even though Topps squeezed over 7 million (8.2%) more cards into NFL Chrome than NBA, there are fewer base cards in the NFL release. A LOT fewer. Let's compare.

Production by card type:

2026/26 NBA Chrome:
Total Inserts- 7,317,126
Total Parallels- 8.929,624
Total Autos- 405,410
Total Base- 73,198,440
Base cards per player (299 card CL)- 244,811

2025 Topps Chrome NFL:
Total Inserts- 11,858,048 (+62%)
Total Parallels- 25,960,373 (+190.7%)
Total Autos- 441,420 (+8.9%)
Total Base- 58,958,491 (-19.5%)
Base cards per player (300 card CL)- 157,683
Base Rookies per player (100 card CL)- 116,535

If there's one thing you take away from this breakdown, this should be it.
Topps is attempting to make this massive product feel loaded. That's why you see a litany of all new parallels, most of them garbage, of the high-numbered or unnumbered variety.
In some products, more parallels actually made the product better (Bowman's Best, Bowman Chrome). In others, they absolutely nuked all the value (2025 Topps Chrome MLB). With the preposterous prices you'll have to pay to acquire hobby formats, this product needs all the help it can get.
Unfortunately, this ain't it. We need more than a massive watered-down checklist and list of parallels resembling a CVS receipt to make that happen.

Total production by format:
Since we all have NBA Chrome fresh on our mind, I will add how each of these compares to its production in parentheses.
Hobby- 103,754 boxes <8,646 cases> (-0.7%)
Jumbo- 32,036 boxes <4,005 cases> (-7.5%)
Jumbo First Day Issue- 1,248 boxes <156 cases> (N/A)
Breaker's Delight- 37,870 boxes <6,312 cases> (+20.7%)
Value- 1,376,019 boxes <34,400 cases> (+18.2%)
Mega- 691,539 boxes <34,577 cases> (+12.8%)
Hangers- 917,076 <14,329 cases> (+81.3%)
Fanatics Megas- 30,068 boxes <1,503 cases> (0%)

As you can see, among Hobby formats, Breaker's Delight is the only one that spiked...because of course it did.
Retail formats crept up slightly, aside from Hangers, which exploded. Anyone else remember that all-too-short moment in time where we all went ape on those freaking glorious NBA Chrome Hangers? Might want to take a seat and prepare yourself for disappointment. More on that momentarily.
Also, there is a Sapphire SKU which I will address in the future as it gets closer to release.

Hit Rates:
For some reason, Topps has been overly descriptive with these. Their stated expectations generally line up with the odds, but there are some exceptions.

Hobby- 1 Auto, 12 parallels, 13.6 inserts, 3.6 numbered cards. (The math shows less parallels than Topps says, but more numbered cards than the stated 2. Overall we're really close, though.)

Jumbo- 2 Autos, 21.5 parallels, 18.5 inserts, 6.6 numbered cards (Again, I'm showing slightly fewer overall parallels than the stated 23, but more numbered cards. Overall numbers match though.)

Breaker's- 2 Autos, 9 parallels, 1 insert per 5 boxes, 3 numbered cards

Value boxes- 1 Auto per 18.25 boxes (2.2/case), 8 parallels 2.7 inserts, 3.5 boxes per numbered card

Megas- 1 Auto per 8.9 boxes (2.25/case), 14 parallels, 5.3 inserts, 1.75 boxes per numbered card

Hangers- 1 Auto per 29 boxes (2.2/case), 4 parallels, 2.6 inserts, 6.8 boxes per numbered card

Fanatics Mega- 1 Auto per 5.4 boxes (3.7/case), 17 parallels, 5.1 inserts, 1.6 boxes per numbered card

Value Map:

Pricing on this one is messy.
If I base Hobby SKUs on drop pricing, it doesn’t help much- we all know our chances of actually landing an EQL win are basically zero. But using secondary prices isn’t much better since the secondary market is wild.

On top of that, Jumbo pricing is still a bit of a mystery. We know Hobby is jumping $50 per box from pre-order, but Topps hasn’t clarified what Jumbo will land at on the drop.

So here’s where I’m landing:

Hobby at expected drop pricing, $400.
Jumbo at $700 (pre-order was $650).
Fanatics Megas at $80.
Retail formats at standard pricing for Value, Mega, and Hangers.
Breaker's Delight won't be included in this format.
It’s not perfect, but it’s the cleanest baseline we’ve got right now. I will be attaching an editable spreadsheet to my Substack if you'd like to keep up with values as prices change.

$/card:
1) Hangers- $1.00
2) Value boxes- $1.43
3) Megas- $1.67
4) Fanatics Megas- $1.90

$/parallel:
1) Fanatics Megas- $4.71
Tie-
2) Value- $5.00
2) Mega- $5.00
2) Hanger- $5.00

$/auto:
1) Jumbo- $350
2) Hobby- $400
3) Fanatics Mega- $432
4) Hangers- $580

$/# card:
1) Jumbo- $106.06
2) Hobby- $110.80
3) Megas- $122.50
4) Fanatics Megas- $128

Best formats:

At drop pricing, for autos Jumbo is a clear winner, followed by Hobby.
Once those reach $800+ for Hobby & $1,400+ for Jumbo, as in about 5 minutes after they drop, then Fanatics Megas end up being the cheapest way to pull autos. Unfortunately, the most desirable autos are only in Hobby formats, and as I mentioned earlier, so are the best inserts.
However, it's not all doom and gloom. Even at drop pricing, Megas are the best format across the board for parallels, including Rookies and Image Variations.
As we saw with NBA Chrome, even retail formats can catch fire eventually. But since these are actually cheaper than those, they'll likely disappear from shelves quicker.
If I'm ranking retail formats for overall value, it's:
1) Fanatics Megas
2) Megas
3) Hangers
4) Value Boxes

For all my Hanger die hards who are in denial like me, allow me to include one more metric to drive home the fact that hangers are not the bangers they were with NBA Chrome.
For NBA Chrome Hangers, I created a little metric I like to call "Quality Hits". It involved evaluating the density of lower numbered parallels, inserts, and autos. A detailed description can be found on my end-of-year analysis from January. What this did is allowed me to measure the strength of "Quality Hits" in a format in relation to the spend. For context, with NBA Chrome Hangers, you could expect a Quality Hit to fall 1 in every 6.75 Hangers.
In NFL Chrome, that number is 1 in 22.1 Hangers. Meaning you have to rip 3× as many to get a low-numbered quality hit. If you're ripping, Megas are a safer play than Hangers.

Hobby vs. Retail:
Since secondary pricing is already absurd for Hobby formats, it's very valid to analyze what can actually be pulled from retail. I've already seen many comments that nothing of value can be pulled from retail. However, I have to disagree with that to an extent.

Here are desirable chases that CAN ONLY be pulled from Hobby formats- Team Camo Variation, Game Genies, Tecmo Inserts or Autos, Kaiju, Radiating Rookies, Chrome Etch Variation, 1990 Topps Autos, Chromographs, Future Stars Autos, Legends Autos, Hall of Chrome Autos, Dual Autos, Rookie Patch Autos

These can be pulled from BOTH Hobby & Retail formats- Helix, Let's Go!, Ultraviolet, Lightning Leaders, Shadow Etch, Rookie Variation Autos, Base Variation Autos

And these can ONLY be pulled from Retail formats- Lightboard Logo, Fanatical, Urban Legends, Retail Rookie Autos, First Year Fabric, Rookie Relics

Retail is definitely going to be a tougher path to massive hits.

My favorite new addition, Kaiju (think old-school Japanese monsters like Godzilla & Mothra), is going to be wildly popular. Naturally, you won’t find them in retail. Same story with Tecmo, which already has a cult following. Hobby formats only. The Bo Jackson auto in that subset is going to slap.

That said, retail isn’t a wasteland by any stretch. There are still plenty of desirable inserts and parallels to chase. And if you’re accustomed to Panini retail, just know Topps tends to run laps around that experience.

What's Missing?

Curiously, this absolute unit of an odds sheet left out a couple of pivotal subsets. The 5-card NFL Honors Gold Shield Autos and the 98-subject Rookie Premiere Patch Autos. You know…just the biggest chases in the entire product.

This is usually where I break down how many of those land in each format. Normally, that means a heavy concentration in Breaker’s, Hobby, and Jumbo, with a few scraps tossed into retail.

Not this time.

Unless Topps decides to update the odds sheet, there’s nothing to break down, which is frustrating.

One more omission that everyone probably expected, but still stings. No Mahomes autos.

As a Chiefs season ticket holder, that one hurts. Panini still has him locked up. We’ve got roughly 745 signers in this product, and somehow the one I actually want isn’t one of them. Hopefully that changes soon. Because the Panini products that do include him? One is priced higher than an actual rookie auto, and the other is a dumpster fire that advertises autos, but not really.

What Would the Squatch Do?

Is this stuff overpriced? Absolutely.
Does that matter? Not really.
We currently have way worse recent Panini NFL products going for more than what these will in early secondary pricing. That will correct sooner than later though.

If you somehow dodge the odds and land Hobby or Jumbo through EQL, that’s free money. I’ll be right there with you, submitting my entry and preparing to take the usual L. If you hit, it’s an easy flip. Or better yet, stash it and let time do the work.

As for ripping it?

Not for me. Lighting money on fire does not give me joy. But if that's you, no judgment. Hobby how you hobby.
Just understand what you’re signing up for. A lot of these boxes are going to hurt. Especially if you’re paying secondary market prices.

As for retail, I learned my lesson from NBA Chrome. As much as I hated the pricing, I should have bought every box I saw in the wild, and there were thousands of them.

With this, if I see it, I’m buying it. For me, the plan is simple. Accumulate. Marinate. Re-evaluate when the supply tightens.

I definitely want to be part of the circus. You just won't catch me ripping any of it. All sealed and singles for me.

Print Runs:
Base- ~157,685 ea
Base Rookies- ~116,535 ea

Unnumbered Parallels:
Refractor- ~19,750 ea
Xfractor- ~8,070 ea
Hot Pink Xfractor- ~4,035 ea
Lime Green Xfractor- ~1,615 ea
Raywave- ~6,420 ea
Red, White & Blue- ~3,210 ea
Football Leather- ~3,210 ea
Prism- ~1,210 ea
Geometric- ~65 ea
Topps Refractor- ~1,000 ea
Pulsar- ~8,970 ea
Team Camo- ~82 ea
Lightboard Logo- ~220 ea
Rookie Refractor- ~28,710 ea
Rookie Xfractor- ~9,680 ea
Rookie Hot Pink Xfractor- ~4,840 ea
Rookie Lime Green Xfractor- ~1,730 ea
Rookie Raywave- ~6,880 ea
Rookie Red, White & Blue- ~3,440 ea
Rookie Football Leather- ~3,440 ea
Rookie Prism- ~1,330 ea
Rookie Geometric- ~380 ea
Rookie Topps Refractor- ~525 ea
Rookie Pulsar- ~9,830 ea
Rookie Team Camo- ~82 ea
Rookie Lightboard Logo- ~220 ea
Image Variation- ~975 ea
Rookie Image Variation- ~975 ea
Chrome Base Etch Variation- ~90 ea
Chrome Rookies Etch- ~90 ea

Inserts:
Radiating Rookies (20 card CL)- ~265
Shadow Etch (30 card CL0- ~265
1975 Topps (35 card CL)- ~36,470
1975 Topps Refractor- ~16,855
1975 Topps Xfractor- ~3,550
Future Stars (25 card CL)- ~37,520
Future Stars Refractor- ~17,000
Future Stars Xfractor- ~3,520
Power Players (40 card CL)- ~37,935
Power Players Refractor- ~17,110
Power Players Xfractos- ~3,560
All-Chrome Team (25 card CL)- ~37,520
All-Chrome Team Refractor- ~17,000
All-Chrome Team Xfractor- ~3,520
Fortune 15 (35 card CL)- ~36,470
Fortune 15 Refractor- ~16,855
Fortune 15 Xfractor- ~3,550
Legends of the Gridiron (40 card CL)- ~37,935
Legends of the Gridiron Refractor- ~17,110
Legends of the Gridiron Xfractor- ~3,560
Helix (30 card CL)- ~100
Game Genies (25 card CL)- ~200
Tecmo (23 card CL)- ~210
Kaiju (10 card CL)- ~200
Let's Go! (5 card CL)- ~45
Ultraviolet (20 card CL)- ~625
Lightning Leaders (20 card CL)- ~620
Fanatical (30 card CL)- ~430
Urban Legends (30 card CL)- ~430

Unnumbered Autos:
Rookie Variation Autos (94 card CL)- ~615 ea
Retail Rookie Autos (38 card CL)- ~125 ea
Rookie Patch Autos (38 card CL)- ~205 ea

Relics:
First Year Fabric (19 card CL)- ~2,630 ea
Rookie Relics (38 card CL)- ~2,625 ea

#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2025ToppsChromeNFL

[BoxoutBreaks @BoxoutBreaks]

@cardrestocks Secured blasters and hangers 🫡

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We in or out on Hoops?

[Flip @cardrestocks]

Back in stock 👇 #TOPPS #AD

Catalog : https://t.co/oykUJ7MLDi

[Flip @cardrestocks]

Back in stock 👇 #TOPPS #AD

Catalog : https://t.co/oykUJ7MLDi

[BoxoutBreaks @BoxoutBreaks]

Anyone know of any reliable tools (software or physical) for pre-screening cards before submitting to PSA for grading?

@CardPurchaser

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@cardrestocks Good deal

[Card Purchaser @CardPurchaser]

Full info on the 2025 Topps Chrome Football MVP Buyback Program #toppsfootball #ad

Details: https://t.co/LAydgPsm1r

[Flip @cardrestocks]

Back in stock 👇 #TOPPS #AD

Catalog : https://t.co/YHqCDaHPBn

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@CardPurchaser For the PC. I’m a sucker for the jersey number match. Just wish it had the RC stamp!

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Sick 👀

[Card Purchaser @CardPurchaser]

TECMO BOWL cards are coming in 2025 Topps Chrome Football. What do you think?

[Flip @cardrestocks]

Back in stock 👇 #FANATICS #AD

$59.99 : https://t.co/EA2Jc2d52i

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Death, taxes, 👇

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@Scottiehpboil @cardrestocks Was just able to get in an order of blasters, thanks!