Brad

Token2049 recap, Dubai, and the State of Crypto in 2024 and beyond (thoughts and forecasts) Context/background: this is my 3rd cycle, was investing anon for years. Doxxed in December 2023. Trained as a pro athlete (tennis), played against Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic on the Euro and World Junior Tour and was recruited by Roger Federer's coach (Peter Carter). Got to play and train with Roger a few times, which was super cool. Got injured early, retired from tennis in 2007, started marketing and building online businesses from scratch, bootstrapped, almost 20 years ago (publishing, ecommerce, and agency businesses). Attended, spoke at, or organized dozens of events and conferences in adtech/advertising/digital marketing/ecommerce. Hired over 5k people in tech over the last 20 years, my Web2 businesses have generated over $200M in revenue, wrote several books about marketing and business, was the first CEO in Europe to be interviewed by Facebook at their Dublin HQ. Sold several of my companies, retired in 2020, moved to Dubai, and spend most of my time enjoying life and investing in crypto. Founder of CoinRock Ventures (@coinrockcap) with my partner @caiusinabarrel - an incubator that builds crypto and Web3 projects in-house from A to Z with full control over everything we build. With that in mind, here's what I see and feel happening in crypto, being on the ground during Token2049 last week in Dubai. Token2049 Dubai week recap and industry feel The value is always at the side events. The magic never happens in the main conference hall or venue. The real connections happen inside Telegram groups weeks before the event. I didn't even attend Token2049 myself, some of our team members did. Side events > main event. The alpha is never on stage. IRL (in-real-life) connections and relationships are key. You can connect on Twitter and Telegram, but nothing replaces human connections, a handshake, a hug, and laughs shared at dinner or around drinks. I'll take 10 solid human IRL connections over 100 DM and remote connections. Bullish on humans interactions. On KOLs Spending quality time and having candid conversations with major KOLs and their managers over the last couple weeks, it's clear that transparency is more important than ever. Doxxed teams with great leadership and solid projects are favored, and will keep winning. There is a clear need for higher transparency and better communication between projects and communities. KOLs (influencers) are getting extreme levels of abuse online and the smart ones understand that they need to be associated with solid teams and builders they can count on. The days of the "1 video promo KOL" are numbered. KOLs want and need to promote things they can stand by proudly, and talk about for weeks and months rather than one-time promos. As regulations tighten, we will also start seeing higher fines and jail time in the coming months years for KOLs and teams who don't do things the right way. More solid relationships and fewer 1-night stands: top KOLs want partnerships with great teams and founders. That's the future - and it's already happening. On projects and founders As an investor having invested in Web2 startups and my own businesses for close to 20 years, I often see a lack of clarity and direction in the majority of Web3 projects being pitched. Either boring narrative, trying to do too many things, no "big idea", no clear path to market, no experience, no proof of concept, no real plan, no clear roadmap, no sense of managing budgets, and sometimes a certain level of arrogance (despite having no track record yet) or unwilling to listen to advisors who can guide them through the challenges they will face. If you're a founder, you need to put your ego aside and get great people on board. Unlike Web2, where building a business typically takes 6-24 months, you don't have the luxury of time in crypto and Web3 given the shorter market cycles. You need great people onboard, FAST. Put the ego aside and ask for help. Experienced builders will enter your market and eat your market share. Marketing doesn't simply consist in getting KOLs to promote a project, but starts at the naming, branding, font, slogan, and ideation level. There are LOT of layers to "marketing". Many projects and founders can't articulate their project in less than 20 seconds and if you can't, you're cooked. Very few great founders and builders. Very few founders actually know how to execute and operate. Very few have experience building and a successful track record in dealing with crisis management, building communities, raising funds, staying financially lean, etc. The rare founders and builders who have all the skills will start attracting even more attention - and capital. If you're not good enough, raise your skills and surround yourself with better people. CoinRock was very much built out of frustration after seeing so many projects self-destruct and founders dropping the ball over and over again. We saw the opportunity of taking good ideas and executing faster and better. It's not rocket science, you just need to actually be able to operate and execute like a real business would, build great things and treat people the right way. On centralized exchanges (CEX talk) Met with a dozen exchanges over the last few weeks including at Token2049, and here's the skinny. Exchanges that create a space and opportunities to connect directly with their users will win. Quality will win. The market knows the difference between bottom-feeder exchanges and top-quality ones. We attended over 20+ events last week, and the standout events were put together by @CoinWOfficial. I'm not paid by them, but I've met enough businesses and executives over the years to see and get a feel on how things work on the inside. Excellent leadership, great events, high-quality and vetted attendees, and you get to meet and spend time with the people actually running it. Another example is @Bybit_Official, opening up their Dubai HQ office for co-working, meetings, and live events over the last few months. Two different ways of building trust and community, and both very good. Bullish on both. On teams and alliances The talk of Token2049 week at side and private events was also projects that have raised large amounts of funds, only to disappoint their investors. Pick your side and pick your teams wisely. Good actors are winning and will keep winning. The industry is maturing (albeit slowly), and it's a very small industry where everyone is hyper-connected. Reputation is key. Projects and founders that show goodwill and try to problem-solve when challenges inevitably appear will win. On materialistic vibes in crypto Quite a few KOLs renting Lambos and showing off lifestyle on social media. Can it be annoying, especially knowing that 90% of them are rented (or fake)? Yes. I've built and grown several advertising and social media agencies from 0 to the multiple 8 figure level in revenue and spent close to $40 million on paid advertising and influencer marketing online, and we've split-tested this. Results are clear: clicks, views, and watch times are higher with flashy stuff (cars and luxury lifestyle) than plain background or non-materialistic things. The nuance to consider for projects, KOLs and influencers is: what type of audience do you want to build and be associated with? There is no right or wrong, just a side that needs to be consciously chosen. You attract what you put out. Putting out flashing shiny objects attracts the crowds who want a quick 1000x on day 1. Sharing thoughts, concepts, skillset, trading leads to lower viewership initially, but a higher-quality audience. The fact that Lambos and watches get more viewers is not a telling sign about how "empty" and vain influencers are, but often simply a business decision that leads to more views - and tells more about the social media situation in general (an entirely different topic, for another post). On Dubai A lot of talk, opinions, and posts about "how Dubai is" over the last week. Being based here and living in Dubai for years, I have a very different view than many who just flew in for a few days - during a historic flooding week and torrential rain. A few thoughts and experiences: I love Dubai and the energy it has. Visiting Dubai is very different to living in Dubai. Living in Dubai, you rarely go to Five Palm or Dubai Mall. Residents enjoy different places that are much calmer, far from the touristy and flashy areas. I've lived in Switzerland (born and raised), traveled the world during my junior and pro tennis years, lived in California for years and traveled the US, lived 9 years in London, Brazil, and now Dubai for years. Can always find 100+ negative points in any situation, but let's remember that safety, politeness, health insurance, world access via travel, and quality of life are immensely superior to many Western cities. Want nature? Drive to Fujairah, RAK, Khor Fakkan, hike, or take the summer months to travel to Europe or the US. The upside Dubai offers is incredible. I said this to friends and family when I moved to Dubai: the East is eating the West. The coming decades belong to the Middle East and Eastern world. The excitement, energy and ambition are palpable. Bullish on Dubai. On short-term vs long-term views Coming from the world of "real" business building where you get to face customers, shake hands and talk to people who buy your products and services, it's still mind-boggling to see how Web3 and crypto still thinks too short-term. From a purely financial perspective, crypto teams and founders could make 100x more money by executing well on 1-3 projects than pumping out new stuff and rugging every other week. Same for relationships. Noticing still too much clout-chasing by people who bring no value or think way too short term. I saw the same 15 years ago in the early ecommerce and adtech years. Very few people understand that the 19-year old junior biz dev at a Tier3 exchange might be running a Tier1 division a few years from now. And people remember everything. Think long-term and you win. If nothing else, do it because you understand that being kind can open doors and build relationships. Bullish on long-term thinking. Impatience will destroy you. Bullish on our team with @caiusinabarrel and @BlockchainBoyy. Bullish on kindness and people who treat other people the right way. On Token2049 events + note for organizers As mentioned above, the real connections happen at private and side events. One note for event organizers: lower the music volume (literally). People are happy to attend parties but don't want to be yelling for hours. Make it easier for people to talk and connect, that's why everyone is flying in for your events. 20-30% lower volume would lead people to stay longer and enjoy your brand/take pictures/post on social media, etc. On community-building and attracting holders As acquiring new holders/users and community members inevitably becomes more and more expensive (a repeat of online advertising over the last 20 years), community will become even more crucial. Very few projects actually spend the time building relationships with their holders. Those that do, will win. Always insane to me seeing how poorly many founders treat their holders. Study word-of-mouth on steroids, in a hyper-connected world. On building relationships The most successful people in any industry are often the quiet ones. Seen this in pro sports, adtech, finance, ecommerce, etc. Build relationships with people who don't speak much publicly. Connect with character rather than status. Build with good people. Crypto: changing the world? At this stage, the West (USA and EU) are still very much anti-crypto - openly or subtly. Dubai and others are the exception and very pro-crypto, and will gain immense benefits from attracting talent, businesses, and investors. Just looking at how many companies have moved from Asia and Europe to Dubai to set up their headquarters and the tens of thousands of people it directly impacts is a big achievement. My view about crypto is that even though it might not change the entire financial system, it still can bring immense benefits to specific demographics and countries around the world that don't have access to the traditional financial system. As of today, I don't believe crypto will fully replace fiat currency, but it can provide people with life-changing opportunities to transact and build life-changing wealth. Just like Web2, social media, stocks, or real estate - but faster. But only for those who approach it with the right mindset and are OK building their skills and specializing in something, whether it's trading, building, design, etc. On respecting the working man Still too much dunking on the working man, which is very low-level and low-class. Millions of people work hard and are looking at crypto for a way out of the system, yet still need to feed their families. The era of making the 9-to-5 people feel bad needs to evolve. I applaud people who work hard to build a better future for their families and look at crypto as an opportunity to supplement - or change - their life. That's my take on what happened last week behind-the-scenes. Good spending time and conversations with good people, tagging a few here as well as partners. Apologies if I haven't tagged some great folks we met. DMs are open. @caiusinabarrel @BlockchainBoyy @AaronBremser_ @that_investor @coinrockcap @Z00MERCAPITAL @MrMPodcast @raffayalvi @realcryptomoses @CoinWOfficial @Bybit_Official @AGORACOM @_d3f4ult @LoC_Lou_ Note: None of the entities or names here are sponsors in any way at the time of this writing.

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Brad

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