Brian Robben

Investor. Building a concentrated public equity partnership.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

Worth revisiting this.

The point wasn't that $57k had to be the exact bottom.

It was that after a 50%+ drawdown, the risk/reward had changed enough to start doing the work again.

That is how I try to think about markets... not predict tops/bottoms, but recognize when the price has changed the odds.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

Bitcoin is still about 49% below its peak. That does not prove the bottom is in, but it is enough to start paying closer attention.

Crypto winters usually do not end with excitement. They end when forced sellers fade, attention moves elsewhere, and prices start holding even while sentiment is still bad.

I am not calling the exact bottom. I just think this is the part of the cycle where the upside starts to matter more than the fear.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

@jpinsights What's driving most of your conviction?

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

@CompoundingLab I think the big question is whether 4% growth is too low. $SPGI has pricing power and doesn’t need much capital to grow. If revenue can stay closer to 5 or 6% for longer, the valuation looks pretty different. That’s where I’d push on the model.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

An expensive market doesn’t mean a crash is coming. It just means I get pickier.

I want businesses with recurring revenue, pricing power, high returns on capital and competitive advantages that are getting stronger, not weaker.

Then I wait for a price that makes sense.

I’m fine paying a fair price for a great business. What I don’t want to do is convince myself that any price is reasonable just because the company is great.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

I think $SPGI is one of the most interesting businesses in the market.

Issue debt? You probably need a rating. Manage money? Their indexes and data are everywhere. Commodities? Pricing data. Research? Market intelligence.

It’s basically embedded in how huge parts of the financial system operate.

I like businesses where customers don’t have many good reasons to leave. SPGI is one of them.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

One area I think investors are still underestimating is the biggest winners from AI may not all be AI companies.

Think about what happens as the economy becomes significantly more digital, automated, and data intensive.

More: data, transactions, securities issuance, risk management, demand for trusted information.

Treasure hunting for the next Nvidia sounds fun. But I’m more interested in the businesses that collect a toll regardless of which AI model wins.

That is a much easier game to play for 10+ years.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

I think investors spend too much time asking, "What stock should I buy?”

The harder question is, “What do I know well enough to put 10% of my money into?”

Finding 50 decent companies isn't difficult.

Finding 5–10 where you understand the business, valuation, competitive advantage, downside and what would prove you wrong is much harder.

That is where investing gets interesting.

I'd rather know 10 companies extremely well than pretend I understand 100.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

Owning private businesses changed how I look at public stocks.

I care much less about whether a stock beats earnings estimates by 3% this quarter.

I care much more about:

- would I want to own this entire company?
- could a competitor realistically take its customers?
- can it raise prices?
- where will the cash go?
- will this business be substantially more valuable in 10 years?

Public markets make it incredibly easy to think like a trader.

I think the bigger advantage is using that liquidity while continuing to think like an owner.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

Nearly 85% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have beaten earnings expectations.

That doesn’t mean the market is cheap, it isn’t.

But I think investors can get so focused on what might go wrong that they miss what’s actually happening.

And right now, corporate earnings are holding up a lot better than many expected.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

The more I study exchanges, the more I like the business model.

$ICE doesn’t really need to predict where markets are going.

Rates up, rates down, commodities moving, credit spreads widening... people still need to trade, hedge and manage risk.

Getting paid because markets exist is a pretty good place to be.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

I keep coming back to $BE because I’m not sure the market is asking the right question.

Everyone talks about AI demand.

I’m more interested in whether power becomes the actual bottleneck.

If getting enough electricity is what delays new data centers, then being able to put generation directly onsite becomes extremely valuable.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

Running service businesses has definitely changed how I look at public companies.

I care way more now about labor, working capital, customer headaches, pricing power and how hard it actually is to grow without adding complexity.

A 30% operating margin looks a lot more impressive after you’ve personally fought for 10%.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

I think people still describe $CME too simply as a “volatility beneficiary.”

The more I study it, the more I think the real product is capital efficiency.

If CME can save customers billions in margin requirements while becoming more embedded in how institutions manage risk, that’s a much better business than “volatility goes up, volumes go up.”

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

I do not need an opinion on every stock.

I need a strong opinion on a few.

Most investors have access to the same earnings reports, presentations and industry data. The advantage is usually not getting the information first. It is understanding which information actually matters.

What drives the value of the business?
What is temporary?
What is the market assuming?
What happens if that assumption is wrong?
What would make me change my mind?

The best investment ideas usually become easier to explain after doing the work.

When a thesis needs twenty assumptions, a complicated model and a perfect outcome to work, it is probably not a great thesis.

Clarity matters more than sounding sophisticated.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

Holding cash while the market keeps going up is not fun.

It makes you feel like you are doing something wrong every day.

But cash gives you options. You can buy when a great company misses a quarter. You can add when the market panics. You can wait for the price you want instead of convincing yourself that valuation no longer matters.

I do not hold cash because I know when the next correction is coming. Nobody does.

I hold it because there will eventually be a better opportunity, and I want enough capital available to act when it arrives.

Patience feels unproductive right up until it becomes valuable.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

I am not worried that the largest technology companies are spending too much on artificial intelligence.

I am focused on what they earn from it.

Spending by itself tells us almost nothing. Some of these companies will turn artificial intelligence into higher revenue, better margins and stronger competitive advantages. Others may spend billions because everyone else is doing it.

The companies in the best position already have customers, distribution, data, cash flow and the ability to build the infrastructure.

That does not mean every dollar spent will earn a good return.

But I would rather own the companies with the balance sheets and existing businesses to figure it out than the companies whose entire valuation depends on artificial intelligence eventually working.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

I think most investors own too many stocks.

Not because diversification is bad, but because it becomes an excuse to avoid making real decisions.

Your 10th best idea probably should not have the same amount of capital as your best idea. And if you own 40 companies, it is hard to know any of them well enough to act decisively when something changes.

Concentration only works when the work is there. You need to understand the business, the risks, management, valuation and what would prove you wrong.

But the goal should not be to collect stocks.

It should be to find a small number of great businesses, wait for the right price and own enough for being right to actually matter.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

A lot of bad capital allocation starts with the same problem: management feels it has to do something.

The better teams can sit on their hands when the available returns are mediocre.

That sounds easy. It rarely is.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

I am less interested in how large a company’s market is than in how long it can keep reinvesting at attractive returns.

Almost any business can grow by lowering its standards.

A rare few can grow for years without giving up the economics that made the business attractive in the first place.

[Brian Robben @brianjrobben]

@joshvice @JaredKubin @ClayTravis Most college programs lose money in football. Only the top schools are cash flow positive