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FREE TO JOIN My Real-time trading alerts and investment strategies Market forecast analysis 📊
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Reply with "2026" to my WhatsApp number +16069455986 to join for free.
$SPY following my pattern
Got the expected pop over the weekend ❤️
They flipped all those orders sitting at $743 to buyers.
And yes I believe a pullback comes, maybe not as low as shown in this chart.
Happy Monday
Patterns+data
The real reason oil is below $100/bbl. It isn’t fundamentals. It’s capital aversion. Policy uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. Investor VaR has collapsed by c.$5B. Open interest is at the lowest level in years. Global oil stocks are still drawing 5-6mb/d; however, investors say they don't care.
Start with investor VaR - the best measure of how much capital is willing to engage with oil. It has collapsed to $1.4B (see chart). Not forced out by rising rates, sanctions or external margin calls. Investors are simply choosing not to hold. The policy noise - deal on/off, attack, not attack - has made the carry uncompensable.
VaR compression has one direct consequence: it drains open interest. Contracts are closed. Market depth disappears. 2026 YTD open interest decline is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there’s no rates shock or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion.
Managed Money VaR and YTD OI Change
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Huzzah! My latest book, Mind State, has just gone live on Amazon. Check it out now and beat the Christmas rush. And thanks as ever for reading.
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