Georges B

Tips y propuestas sobre finanzas, ciencia, tecnología, informática, lugares Buenos Bonitos y Baratos, pensamientos aleatorios útiles..

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

3 Week Ulcer Index is still in "one move from cycle bottom territory".

My theory remains that less cycle top data will need to trigger each cycle for the cycle top, and more cycle bottom data will need to trigger.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

I have revived the Log Growth Curves! (BLX delisting destroyed many charts).

Overall, it did a great job during the last cycle top. Both important highs (January and October 2025) touched layer 6 in the red bands.

So what about the cycle bottom?

The cycle bottom layer for this model is consistently layer 2, even though 2015 brefily broke below it after the cycle bottom.

In November, the number is 50k. This is close to the price of the topmost band of the cycle bottom moving averages.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The Weekly Supertrend just flipped bullish, joining plenty of other metrics that have done the same.

"What's the holdup, CryptoCon? When do you finally give in?"

The cycle hasn't been bested yet.

It is my opinion that not only was June 2026 a false cycle bottom, but the move we've just seen has also produced a false bull market start.

This is similar to what happened in December 2024, but in reverse. Leading up to that point, I suggested that maybe the cycle could have ended one year early. There were many, many calls for a cycle top then.

I ultimately decided that the cycle was not finished. Even though the data made it appear that December 2024 was the end, the cycle continued until it reached its final high in October 2025, right when it was supposed to.

I am now suggesting the same for the cycle bottom:

Even though there are plenty of plausible reasons to believe it's already in, I think the cycle will stay on track and form the true bottom in price in the correct time window, from November 2026 to January 2027.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Bull confidence crescendoed into 82k, only to be smacked down.

This comes as Fisher Transform finds important resistance at the top of the bear market wedge.

No bull market here until it's broken to the upside, and it's been extremely good at catching the start of the bull market early.

I have not, and still will not change my mind that the bear market is not complete according to regular cycle timing (November - January), even further long term cycle bottom data completion, and the correct psychology.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The cycle bottom target of the Golden Ratio Multiplier is getting more agressive by the week, now at 31k.

That number also appears with the Magic Bands.

For a while, I've felt that target, even though "would have been hit in previous cycles," is too harsh. Although, not out of the question.

Hitting level 2 again on the other hand, seems very plausible which is currently at 50k. The most popular target for accurate moving averages remains low to mid 40ks.

Bitcoin is also now running into resistance at level 3 (81k).

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

SOPR still says this is not good enough for the cycle bottom. The pattern looks spot on for mid-to-late bear market activity.

Many people are waiting for the exact 1 year mark from the cycle top to buy in October, but again, the Halving Cycles Theory bottom range doesn't start until November.

The bear market that lasted for almost a year and two months (2014 at 410 days) is most times conveniently left out of "bear markets are always one year"

Personally, I think paitence for better prices is just worth it.

High Loss on SOPR marked the exact cycle bottom in two cycles, and the low before the cycle bottom in September 2014.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The 2 Week Aroon Oscillator is zipping back up, right on queue. Looks like the first pivot is finally complete. Every single one has now been in June of the bear market year.

The uptick in the metric has been August - October in other cycles, so it being in August now fits right in!

One more move to cycle bottom levels should do it.

[No Trust Sec @NoTrustSec]

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[Ataque Futbolero @AtaqueFutbolero]

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[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Just before hitting the high long-term holder area, the metric stopped out and has now bounced back above the mid-line. A first of its kind for a bear market.

So, long-term holder buying has not reached cycle bottom levels, and momentum has slowed down tremendously.

[José Antonio @Darkscito]

@AlertaNews24

[The Hormuz Wire @HormuzJournal]

🚨 BREAKING:

​A controversial referee decision from FIFA!

​FIFA formed the refereeing team for the France-Morocco quarter-final entirely from Argentine officials.

​Don't bother this much, just give the trophy to Messi and don't tire anyone out...

[WORLD POWER DESK @WorldPowerDesk]

Egypt's national team coach, Hossam Hassan, held up a FIFA banner reading "No to Racism" to the French referee after he allowed Argentina's third goal and failed to consult VAR regarding the foul committed against Salah.

FIFA adopted this banner, which the Egyptian coach used, in September 2024 to alert referees to racist incidents.

#WorldCup

[HF World @hfworld_]

🇪🇬 Hossam Hassan blasts FIFA at full-time:

“We WERE ROBBED IN BROAD DAYLIGHT”

🗣️ “I have been involved in football for decades as a player and coach, and I rarely speak about referees because mistakes are part of the game. But what happened against Argentina goes beyond a simple mistake.

Egypt earned everything they achieved on that pitch. They fought for every ball, defended with courage, attacked with belief and scored goals that should have changed the course of the match.

The biggest question is simple: why was every incident involving Egypt examined with a microscope, while incidents that benefited Argentina seemed to disappear without the same level of scrutiny?

Our disallowed goal completely changed the momentum of the game. The players celebrated, the fans celebrated, and then VAR searched for a reason to take it away. Yet when Egypt appealed for a penalty before Argentina’s winning goal, where was that same urgency?

FIFA always says football unites the world. Tonight millions of Egyptians feel football divided the world. The rules should be the same for everyone, whether you are Argentina, Brazil, France or Egypt.

We can accept defeat. What we cannot accept is feeling that the match was decided by decisions that will be debated for years.”

[Ryan Rozbiani @RyanRozbiani]

Salah was TRIPPED in the BOX

This was a FOUL and a Penatly https://t.co/gubfCZxT3d

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

According to the average amount of time in a Bear Market, Bitcoin is at 70% completion.

The drawdown is still very shallow at 53%, even when accounting for diminishing. That's over 20% less than the previous cycle.

Time-wise, not too much to go. Price-wise, I think there's some work to do.

July in previous bear markets has been a month of stagnation and dead-cat bounces. Downside typically resumes in August.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Ah... that looks like a more suitable point 1 for the bear market.

A move to the cycle bottom mark on the Aroon Oscillator, in the same month as all other point 1's (June).

One more move to cycle bottom levels should make point 2.

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[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

On the Magic Bands V2, Bitcoin is still only halfway to the aggressive cycle bottom target of 29k.

Price has broken below level 2 (blue), which has happened at various points in other bear markets. The common thread is a move to Level 1 (yellow) and eventually the cycle bottom band (red).

I'm not saying that Bitcoin must go to the cycle bottom band this bear market (although it is possible).... but to have excellent consistency across all cycles and then bottom in the middle of the bands would not make sense.

I believe data is getting progressively more challenging to interpret. This has already been true for the past two cycle tops and the last cycle bottom.

What looks like an obvious weekly bullish divergence on RSI like November 2022 may prove to be just a red herring.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

No new lows yet, and already the bottom calls are starting to pop up.

If you're wondering about cycle bottom data... no major updates to report. Like SOPR, which is still in bear market development mode. Waiting on a move to high loss.

Even from people who are bearish, they appear to have a very optimistic perspective of how this will play out. A soft fall in the short term, followed by powerful new ATHs into next year.

I think what might surprise a lot of people is how low price can get. Sub 30k is not off the table.

For the cycle to stay on track (and of course I believe it will), a curveball is coming.