Isabel J. 🇺🇦

the only way out is through. not sure where we're going but trying to make sure we get there. answering questions @epochairesearch

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

if these are your customers, you might reasonably expect to have revenues growing at more than 15 percent a year.

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

both of the numbers used to estimate these returns are way too low - capital investments are growing 70 percent a year, and AI revenues are growing waaay faster than that (though from a lower base)

[Yoshik @AskYoshik]

The AI numbers are starting to look very ugly.

Even under "best case" assumptions, FT's own data shows Microsoft AI ROI at -9%, Google at -15%, Meta at -28%, Oracle at -35%. Only Amazon barely comes out positive.

This is exactly why I keep comparing this to the dot-com era. Incredible technology does not automatically mean sustainable economics. The internet survived. Most internet companies didn't.

Right now hyperscalers are spending trillions hoping future demand catches up to present capex. That's not certainty. That's a leveraged bet.

[Epoch AI @EpochAIResearch]

Hyperscaler capital expenditures came in on trend in Q1 2026, continuing the trajectory that projects them spending $770 billion this year and over a trillion dollars in 2027.

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

@selentelechia @dyingscribe two year olds can definitely learn to read, but if I’m understanding the thread, the claim is that he learned to read without being read to, which does seem pretty close to impossible for a two year old!

[Josh You @justjoshinyou13]

Given that developing sufficiently advanced AI has potentially severe risks, whether we should intentionally slow down still depends a lot on the current level and pace of AI capabilities.

But as of this year I would like to see a major slowdown.

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

has anyone ever put "colony on Mars" as a vesting condition before? not sure if that or 100 terrawatts in space is more unusual (or more unlikely!)

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

@ohlennart @SemiAnalysis_ memory exports from the US to HK are also way up, though ofc can't distinguish different kinds from this data

[Epoch AI @EpochAIResearch]

How much AI compute has been smuggled to China? We estimate between 290k and 1.6M H100-equivalents by the end of 2025 — representing ~20% to ~60% of China’s total compute.

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

@Aria_Babu @NinaPanickssery @iron_redux I don’t think that’s true, both me and my husband have strong opinions on politics (where we generally agree), and most feedback about our confidence suggests we are both under rather than over confident

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

@NunoSempere @nosilverv Aaron isn’t at Open Phil anymore fyi (though 80k is similar for the purposes of your analysis): https://t.co/94ds0sTLwY

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

hush little baby dont you cry, mama's gonna get you a superstimuli

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

@lymanstoneky @RuxandraTeslo is this assuming that eggs are only used / add a marginal child if a woman is childless at 37? people might use their eggs for a second or third child!

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

@leilavclark yes! it was so beautiful and I appreciated that it was open to babies/kids, it was nice having him with us.

also wow my timeline got full of kid related discourse so fast after having a baby, I assume that’s me specific and hasn’t happened to everyone.

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

Seven week old at a wedding!

I’ve really been pleasantly surprised at how feasible it is to keep doing social things with a baby, though probably it’s going to get somewhat harder once he’s more mobile. All the more reason to take advantage of the first few months.

[Leah Libresco Sargeant @LeahLibresco]

Four week old baby at a wedding.

(I told the bride and groom I only had a 15 percent chance of coming, so they should give our seats to someone on the B list, but they had enough room and we ended up going!)

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

@RuxandraTeslo right partner is super important, and so is some financial stability, but homeownership is an unreasonably high bar for basic life stability imo

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

tired: my baby at social events
wired: my baby when I try to get him to nap at home

turns out I’m not quite extraverted enough for this baby to get enough sleep

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

@eigenrobot The stats in linked tweet are the proportion of students *in remedial math* who can do these things.

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

@AndrewCFollett these are results for university students *in remedial math* at UC San Diego.

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

@Romy_Holland one difference for me since having a kid is that trolley problem responses like this viscerally freak me out as being threatening towards my own kid

[Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw]

@Romy_Holland @NinaPanickssery I still haven’t figured it out, I generally haven’t found pillows or similar easy to make helpful