Color me shocked when your fastball sits 93-95 mph, you aren’t as effective. Strider is legitimately cooked if he can’t get his velo back. These past couple of games remind me of 2025.
I want to stay positive, but strider looks cooked. He is not very good if he doesn’t throw 97-99. He is very hittable. That won’t cut it long term and he is unfortunately signed for a while..
If bummer is going to have to be on the roster, the only meaningful pitches he should get is if we are down 10. Get him, payamps, Suarez off the roster. We have obvious holes that could easily be addressed.
Skip Schumaker used a mound visit to let Carter Baumler know that he made the Opening Day roster. 👏
Baumler was drafted in the Rule 5 Draft by the Pirates in December and then traded to the Rangers.
(Via: @MLB)
Our front office was more concerned with increasing shareholder value than signing a starter in the offseason. Deja vu of last year with the injuries. No excuses for not acquiring a starter in the offseason. The biggest disadvantage to the Braves being owned by a publicly traded company is that they want to do just enough to be competitive to sell tickets, but their top priority is the bottom line on the financial statements, not winning a World Series.
Good quotes here from Spencer on where he's at and where he needs to go.
A quick (unlikely) thoughts on the fastball now, in the past and in the future.
The general focus always seems to be on the velocity. You heard Tom Glavine talk about Spencer's fastball last night and how he and Frenchy (and me) all believe he can be successful again at his current velocity (95.6 avg.) and doesn't necessarily have to get back to the 2023 dominant velo (97.2).
But 2 or maybe even 3 things need to happen.
1. Glav mentioned command, I think that is a given. Spencer has mentioned how his body is not moving the way he wants it to just yet and this season there has a smaller margin for error with missed location on the heater. He won't allow the recovery from the 2nd elbow procedure as an excuse. I think it's likely a contributor. A full regular healthy off-season should reap huge benefits in regards to getting the body movement and command back.
2. Induced Vertical Break. As I navigate this new data world I am learning and believing that this is more important than velocity. We talk about it on the broadcast. The slang term is "giddyup" or "jump" on the fastball. The baseball does not actually rise, it just doesn't drop as much as a standard fastball. Good IVB fights gravity. Contact and whiff data back up the belief that higher IVB makes for a better fastball.
Spencer's IVB has dropped to league average levels this year at 16.3. In 2023 he averaged 18.4, that is elite and was paired with a fastball touching 99/100. That is how you set strikeout records the way Spencer did.
How, or if, he gets that back I don't know. I put nothing past him but I am unaware if recapturing lost IVB is a possible. He did have a start this year vs. PHI where he averaged 18.4 in May. That tells me he can get it back.
3) Horizontal Break. Most 4-seam dominant pitchers prefer their fastball stay straight and true with the least amount of arm side run as possible. In 2023 Strider averaged 6.1" of arm side movement, this season it's at 8.7". Simply put, his fastball is running more than he wants it to.
I am not as convicted about this as much, but I think he is. He had a game in June where he had the most HB of any game this season, 7" and had 9 whiffs on the fastball, the most this season.
There were some pretty FB dominant games he had in 2023 where he was getting whiff counts on his FB with an average of 5-5.5" of arm side run. There was also a game where he got 17 whiffs on his fastball (tied career high) with an average of 7.1" of movement. This is why I am less convicted about the horizontal movement having to get all the way back to 2023 levels.
A lot to watch the rest of this year but more importantly next spring training. If he can't get back to 18" of IVB and say at least 7" of HB then perhaps he pivots. Could be a split, a seam shifted sinker and even a cutter. I don't know. The SL and CB have elite level swing and miss and we are seeing their usage on the rise.
I know this, I put nothing past this guy. He is driven, he has special talent and he'll figure it out.