ぶりらんて

株勉強中。

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

@Asterisk_japan ひどい会社

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

@yu_suke_poemer 承知しました🫡

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

@yu_suke_poemer 知りたい🙇

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

@snatchan_comm xを選択して連携をクリックしてもプラン選択画面に移行しません。
やり方が悪いのでしょうか

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Jeez, Japanese markets seem happy.

Everything from Furukawa, Towa, Harmonic Drive, Ibiden, are up today.

Probably after winning the World Cup game 4-0?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Trump administration is prob realizing now that the key to winning Trade Wars:

Is through frontier supply chains like Quantum, AI, Robotics.

Not cheap Nike sock exports.

With $ASML, $TOWA, $LPK, Ajinomoto,
over in Japan, EU, TW, Korea, and others holding all the cards…

Since each country holds different monopolies and chokepoints needed to make each industry work.

Which all happens to be OUTSIDE the US.

Tariffing all our partners turned out to be not a great idea.

But not too late imo to repair relations and weaponize global supply chains through partners if Trump wants better trade deals.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

For Towa (6315):

Earnings are very nuanced. I got the current ER "Beat" wrong in my original thesis (short term), my bad.

But it's an amazing structural long and setup for H2 2026 rather than H1.

TLDR: Near term bearish algorithmically since they miss the nuance, very positive H2 (markets are forward looking)

Revenue ¥54.36B (+1.7% YoY),
Net Profit at ¥4.59B (-43.4% YoY).
Operating Profit ¥6.91B (-22.1% YoY)

News headlines say "EPS crashed -43.4%" or "order miss" that might trigger an algorithmic selloff.

1. As you've seen with US Towa trading, "EPS crashing -43.4%", and algos might have sold headlines.

-> But this was due to last year, of one-off "compensation for damage" payout and one-time ¥1.3 billion yen stock sales from last year.

-> Also "increased initial costs for new customers in compression equipment." for new equipment is caused profitability losses this quarter.

So a bit of an accounting mirage, not really any profitability issues + scaling new orders, so one-off.

However:

Margin inflection point is already here. Which is the biggest signal.

Full year operating margin was 12.7%. For the annual average to reach 12.7% when Q1-Q3 was hovering around ~10%, Q4 should have been around ~18.4% or something?

Which is extremely bullish moving forward for profitability, and shows HBM compression machines are doing work, compared to legacy equipment.

2. Order book "miss":

"Acceleration expected during the second half of fiscal year 3/27 as front-end process production capacity expands."

This signals $MU, Sk Hynix, and others don't have the floor space ready yet, since they're still building front-end wafer fab lines.

But H2, is setup for massive beat. Demand visibility is there... just revenue/profit ramp deferred to H2.

_

Towa forward guidance forcasted ¥64.0B in Sales (+17.7% YoY) and ¥10.24B in Operating Profit (+48.0% YoY), which signals all time high profitability in the future.

IMO they also sandbagged revenue guidance, since they literally said acceleration second-half but didn't give much of a projection beat.

Japanese companies tend to be ultra conservative too, their dividend hike is a large signal too

Regardless, I think the US selloff was probably just due to negative accounting headlines + lower liquidity. Also I was a bit too early by like 4-6 months.

But Towa is an extremely positive setup for H2. Just not your explosive $SNDK $AAOI 10%+ a day type company.

TLDR: Long term bullish, short term lot of nuances missed with headlines.

Just need to wait a few more months if you have patience. Margins are increasing, revenue/orders deferred H2, dividend hikes, etc.

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

@SDIx2 同感です

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

@hatenablog @yamashitayu 信用できない会社のブログは読まない

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

過去一番目、二番目…ここ数年で何回歴史的暴落を経験したら許されるのだろう😢

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

@gorillataxjp 私も3.2級を1ヶ月勉強して合格しました。
何にも人生変わらずです😢
税理士レベルじゃないと何にも変わらないかと。

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

平野歩夢選手、ありがとう😭
感動して今も涙が止まりません。
ゆっくり休んでください。

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

私の保有銘柄まったく上がってない😢

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

@qK0GW2s7v740272 参加希望です。
よろしくお願いします🙇

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

@snatchan_comm 早々にご回答いただきありがとうございます🙇
参考にして購入検討したいと思います！

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

@snatchan_comm すみません。
理解力がなくて質問です。
銀が200に到達する予想ですが、これはどの商品を買えばいいのでしょうか。

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

@qK0GW2s7v740272 17thありがとうございました🙇
銘柄選定もすごいし、参加者も絞ってあるので無駄な会話がなくて見やすい。
初参加で不慣れなのと日中仕事であまり見れないのとで有料級の情報なのに握力弱すぎて反省です。
また参加できる機会をいただけたら握力強めで頑張ります😊
2週間おつかれさまでした。

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

@qK0GW2s7v740272 銘柄選定もすごいけど
責任感も超強で信頼できる🙇

[ぶりらんて @brillante04]

@KOBA50088236440 IRに電話した時言われたのは
時間もお金も相当かかるから対応しない。
その時間を業績アップに繋がる努力をする時間に使うそうですよ。

[超越者リットマン @89damashii07]

中山金杯の京都金杯の最終予想を特別にnote公開しました。

必ずいいねリポストお願いします。
そしてこの先は見たい人だけ見てください。

宣言します。 中山金杯かなり自信ある。

有馬記念◎ミュージアムマイル🥇
朝日杯FS◎アドマイヤクワッズ🥉
中日新聞杯◎シェイクユアハート
鳴尾記念◎デビットバローズ🥇
ジャパンC◎○決着🔥
マイルCS魂の◎○ビタ🔥
武蔵野 S◎ルクソールカフェ🥇
上位3頭完璧的中🔥
天皇賞秋◎マスカレード🥇
富士S◎ガイアフォース🥇ビタ🔥
アイルランドT◎○ビタ🔥
毎日王冠◎○▲決着🥇🔥
アルゼンチン共和国杯
◎ディマイザキッド🥉🔥
みやこS◎○ビタ🔥

いいねリポスト先着順でマジの即DMお年玉🧧