Co-founder and Managing Partner @OfflineVentures. Founder of @BritandCo @MyBFF. Former @Google @Apple. Co-host of @MoreorLessPod. Wife. Mother. Vibe coder.
"Brit thinks it ends in FICO scores for agents. She's probably right." 😎 TLDR: I think more websites would trust agents if they had credibility scores. Klout for agents!
The death of the web is inevitable.
New More or Less is live, and here's where I landed:
1/ The models are commodity. Meta ships Muse, Gemini ships everything, and consumers already can't tell the difference. Classic race to the bottom, zero lock-in. Which means the OpenAI/Anthropic "one company takes all" infinity story isn't analysis — it's the only pitch that justifies their existence.
2/ Jess admitted 70% of her Muse use cases flat-out don't work. Everyone asks why I don't restart Fin now that "AI can do it." The service worked. The economics worked. What breaks is the economics of mistakes — book one wrong $1,000 flight and your margin is gone, and unlike a human assistant, people fire a digital one instantly. Zero stickiness.
3/ APIs are about to stop being keys and start being negotiations. Your agent shows up at Amazon like Ari Gold: "my client is rich and great, let me in." Brit thinks it ends in FICO scores for agents. She's probably right.
I think it's very hard for startups to survive what's coming. Argue with me in the replies.
Polsia is about to hit $25M run rate.
Next stop: $100M ARR.
And things keep accelerating:
$0 → $1M in 12 weeks
$1M → $10M in 10 weeks
$10M → $20M in 6 weeks
I just published one of my favorite and most successful aisloP episodes yet: “The Run Rate.”
I tell the whole story, from idea to $20M, month by month.
The episode ends in Tokyo, where I went a few weeks ago.
Probably the best place on Earth to take a deep breath, get inspired, and rethink what’s possible.
I came back with an even bolder vision for Polsia.
The road from $25M to $100M is going to look very different.
Polsia v2 is coming soon.
Today on the pod:
@Jessicalessin went full send on Muse and reports that about 70% of the use cases she was excited about have stopped working. Not because the model got worse. Good Eggs wants her to check out in the app, her kid's school portal refuses the login, and JP Morgan and Amazon are blocking agents outright.
@davemorin's version is worse. Instinct booked a dinner reservation in LA instead of San Francisco. He's out.
@lessin has seen this movie. He and Andrew Kortina ran Fin ten years ago and shut it down once they worked out that you become liable for every provider down the chain with no margin to cover your own mistakes. His call now is the death of the web, plus APIs that negotiate access back and forth like Hollywood agents.
Meanwhile Anthropic is meeting investors behind closed doors while they tape, the market's getting hammered, and @brit's three years of hip pain vanished in six days on peptides. Sam insists it's placebo.
Watch here on X or wherever you get your pods.
Topics:
01:09 Jess is back, Dave's birthday, and the October cold
03:04 Nasal rinses and fall immunity
04:02 Brit's peptide results: three years of pain gone in six days
06:43 Anthropic is meeting investors while we tape
07:34 The market is getting hammered: VIX, private credit, Apollo
08:16 Infrastructure IPOs stall and Nvidia becomes the last investor
10:01 Slowing revenue, CFOs cracking down, tokens moving to open models
10:36 Sam: would you rather be rich or right?
11:11 The models are a commodity and there is no lock-in
12:15 Brit won't give Muse her whole computer
13:41 Why Sam trusts Meta more than OpenAI or Anthropic
15:16 Jess: 70% of my Muse use cases don't work anymore
16:54 Dave: Instinct booked the restaurant in the wrong city
18:18 Sam on Fin, the assistant company he ran ten years ago
20:30 Why the economics of mistakes break agent services
22:31 Sam: what's inevitable is the death of the web
23:09 APIs as constant negotiation, and agents with reputations
24:51 Agent credit scores: FICO for bots
25:56 Amazon's Rufus still works, and other branding crimes
27:13 The seesaw: built up and torn down intraday
28:41 Gen Z media, Muse memes, and punk rock by another name
32:53 Is the punk rock thing just marketing?
34:37 Every company now needs a Gen Z meme lord
36:14 The truth subculture and who actually pays for it
37:32 Jess is interviewing Bari Weiss at WTF
40:20 Bumble goes private at $1.3B
43:07 Dave on seven years of Hinge and why dating is so hard
46:41 Apple's home hub and keeping screens away from kids
49:04 Everyone is going to see the Elizabeth Holmes movie
We need more women building and playing with AI. AI is fun *and* so helpful, particularly for women. https://t.co/DUjfIcF5fi is designed for everyone, but, because it understands taste, brand loyalties, and the visuals of your life, it’s particularly well-suited for women. #FortuneMPW
𝗗𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻 (@davemorin), 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗖𝗹𝗮𝘄 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝘆 𝗯𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝘄𝗶𝗰𝗲, 𝗷𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 @slashlast30days 𝗽𝗼𝗱𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁.
First was my boss at Apple when I was 19, then at Path. He made Apple's page the first group on Facebook, group ID 1.
Path had no users, no revenue, and an office in Sean Fanning's apartment when Google came calling. Dave finally pulled out his phone and showed Larry Page the beta. Larry shrugged and talked about robot cars driving around Palo Alto. In 2010.
Then our ask to Google: $200M, the Path icon replacing the camera icon on every Android phone, and our balcony brought up to code. "They laughed at me, but they gave a real offer."
→ 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗚𝗼𝗼𝗴𝗹𝗲'𝘀 $𝟭𝟬𝟬𝗠 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗹𝗮𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗱
"I know now what I did not know then, which is how rare a huge win of that magnitude is. I've always been a bigger fan of go on the journey. I guess I still am."
→ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟰 𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗺 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗖𝗹𝗮𝘄
"Within 24 hours, I had the same feeling that I had when I first installed Facebook. I felt like I could make anything."
→ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁𝟯𝟬𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗻𝗼𝗯𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗮𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗼
"Most of what's going on in the ecosystem right now is individual personal agents that I use one on one. What we are working on at OpenClaw is multiplayer agents."
Meta and Microsoft have roughly halved how much their own employees use Claude, weeks out from the IPO. @davemorin’s read isn’t about price or benchmarks. Claude got over-tuned for parasocial relationships, people fell into something unhealthy with it, and organizations are now backing out.
@lessin runs Claude as core infrastructure and says switching off would be a one line change he’d never think about again.
Then it gets strange. A dinner where only the lab researchers raised their hands when asked whether one company would be left standing. A lab that believes the machine god will go back in time and simulate hell for anyone who didn’t help build it. And Sam’s case that the Valley caught zero-and-infinity thinking from crypto and broke its own spreadsheets.
@brit’s moderating. Jess is at an offsite, so it’s three VCs and no journalist.
Topics:
00:00 Trailer
00:51 Brit moderates: three VCs and no journalist
03:43 Peptide protocols, the Wolverine stack, and a Dexa scan
07:42 Sam on the Nathan Fielder movie
09:30 Meta and Microsoft halve their internal Claude usage
10:13 Dave: Claude was over-tuned for parasocial relationships
11:19 Sam: switching off Claude is a one line change
11:50 Silicon Valley is great at tech and bad at business
13:46 Zero, infinity, and what crypto taught the Valley
17:53 The dinner where only the lab people raised their hands
19:41 The lab that believes in the machine god
20:01 Lab leaks, infinite liability, and what a real framework looks like
21:56 The personal agent protocol: Meta, Walmart, Shopify, Stripe
23:01 Sam: nobody should care about MCP
24:03 Hilton traps Sam’s agent in a doom loop
26:30 If you ran Hilton, would you let the bots in?
27:15 Facebook Connect, Open Graph, and the missing value trade
29:41 Dave: building agents vs building agency
33:53 The social media era already ran this experiment
37:02 The Agent Treaty Framework is born
38:16 Why standards are over and treaties are next
41:28 Megalith and the market for unexercised pro rata
42:32 Sam’s pro rata war story
45:53 64% of LPs now want co-invest rights
48:03 What hedge fund letters say that VCs don’t
49:20 Main Street says it hates AI, then uses it
53:27 Plug of the week: the Mill
@clairevo@bot@Muse@OpenAI This is my current existence/nightmare as well. I think human brains have a bot limit and it's probably like, 5. I'm an order of magnitude over the limit!
Anthropic's S-1 leaked and the numbers don't match the narrative. Revenue flatlining as token prices fall, SaaS investors posting memes welcoming them to the no-growth table. @Jessicalessin still puts it at 60% they get out in November, which looks brave in a week when Oura pulled its own IPO and blamed market conditions.
@lessin's problem with the core business is simpler than any of that. Claude is the center of his infrastructure. "If I woke up tomorrow and Claude was gone, I would care for about one second."
Full house plus @adrianaoun, who drops in to argue there's no moat left unless you own the infrastructure, the data, or the algorithms.
Also: @brit's agent started coordinating date night with @davemorin's agent, and she stopped texting her husband for a day.
Recorded live from the X boardroom. Watch here or wherever you get your pods.
Topics:
00:00 Trailer
01:04 Live from X HQ, and a 39 degree cold plunge
02:57 Dunbar's number, but for bots
05:48 Anthropic's leaked S-1 and the flatlining revenue
07:37 Oura pulls its IPO and the LPs get stuck
09:36 What's actually happening in the markets
10:41 Wall Street and Silicon Valley split on AI's price tag
12:45 World Labs sells for $8B: the barbell strategy
14:11 Half a trillion in contracts, and who's really making money
14:54 What happens if OpenAI and Anthropic don't work out?
16:11 Priced for a growth rate bigger than the US economy
18:04 Open models pass closed models on the charts
18:51 Sam: if Claude vanished tomorrow, I'd care for one second
19:43 The forward deployed bet and the luxury token problem
22:16 Adrian drops in: 300 startups, 40 unicorns, and a plane
24:39 Jess goes full Muse
26:28 The bot AGI challenge: after-school plans and the mom index
28:23 OpenAI rebrands Codex as Dots
30:30 Adrian on the moat: winner take some
31:38 Brit's agent starts talking to Dave's agent
33:51 No switching costs, so BD deals are the only lock-in
36:13 Dave: Instinct is the new Kayak
36:57 Maybe it's the beginning of times, not the end
38:47 Adrian's opposite thesis: we go further into the screens
43:39 Who has agency, you or the technology?
44:22 Offline is the new luxury
46:31 Everyone is building personal apps now
47:54 Book rec: Ari Emanuel's Roll the Calls
50:44 Adrian's parting shot: infrastructure, data, or algorithms
53:02 Sam's Middle Ages 2.0: castles, moats, and hoarding
@brit connected her agent to @davemorin's agent this week. They started coordinating with each other. Then she realized she hadn't texted her own husband in a day.
"There's no humanity in it. I'm losing actual context of humans."
She's also running about two dozen bots and has no idea what the ceiling is. Dunbar put stable human relationships at 150. Nobody has worked out the number for agents. "I think I can do like 10 to 20 things at once. I realistically can do like three."
On valuations, @Jessicalessin is careful: the opportunities are real and these can be real businesses. The problem is they're priced for stratospheric growth across every industry, forever. Dave's version of what that implies is a company eventually larger than the entire US economy.
And @adrianaoun breaks the agency question open. DoorDash decides what he eats, Google Maps decides where he turns. "The trick is that technology has convinced you that you are the one in control." Dave: "I could not disagree with this more." Jess: "I totally disagree."
Recorded live from the X boardroom. Full episode live soon.
@tmrohan Mostly persuasive because it forces your full attention to watch it vs decks or memos which people scan quickly. Same reason why all social media is now videos to drive engagement time and why podcasts work.
Have been playing with this one for months now and it's pretty amazing how much context it instantly picks up about you, simply from your photos. Way better than any AI assistant out of the box. Congrats to @marissamayer and team!
If a picture is worth a thousand words, your camera roll is worth millions.
That’s why we built Dazzle, an AI assistant that turns your camera button into a "get it done" button. No blank prompts, just instant context and action. 🚀
Read the full launch post: https://t.co/WYf8LylCoa 🎉
Guys, it is going to be a banger @MoreorLessPod this week. @davemorin on fire. @brit's bot mania continues and @lessin the bear is, shall I say, at least momentarily validated.
Meanwhile, I'm melting down the data centers with my AI use and news chasing.
And you thought peptides were spicy....
Today on the pod:
@lessin would rather send his kids to the military than to Andreessen Horowitz's new $35M school, @Jessicalessin agrees on air, and @davemorin ends up defending the thing he opened the segment by calling a marketing play.
Full house this week: Dave, @brit, Jessica and Sam, plus @Mazzeo of NoHo Labs, who spends most of the hour asking why none of them can be optimistic about anything.
Watch here on X or wherever you get your pods.
Topics:
00:00 Cold Open
01:14 Matt Mazzeo joins: peptides, CAA, and 15 years of Harvard connections
05:19 a16z puts $35M into a school: marketing play or higher ed reform?
06:20 Brit on every billionaire starting a university
08:21 Jess on Alpha School and who should be in charge of education
10:20 Sam: I'd rather send my kids to the military
12:19 Grit, great books, and learning to wrangle horses
16:40 Claude discovers a new enzyme system with 10,000 agents
18:01 Anthropic's IPO slips, and the liability problem
20:29 The story flip: from only we can be trusted to we can't afford the risk
21:14 Matt's maximalist take: long frontier, long open source
23:14 Massive demand, unclear profit, and the railroad pattern
24:40 Blackstone on who pays for the data center debt: we don't know
25:45 The Saint Petersburg paradox and pricing an infinite payout
27:56 Brockman redefines AGI, three years too late
31:11 Infinite demand doesn't mean infinite sustainability
32:20 Amazon blocks Muse: the first of many arms treaties?
35:37 Agents are quietly vaporizing the internet's breakage model
36:49 It's still 1982 for agents
37:42 Sam wants to spend thousands a month on CPU, not GPU
40:12 Does your agent represent you or the lab that made it?
42:16 When your agent does something bad, who is liable?
43:50 Peptides 101: what they actually are
46:30 GLP-1 revenue is rivaling AI revenue
48:20 How Matt went from 250 pounds to sub-12% body fat
50:29 The FDA is moving peptides back into compounding pharmacies
53:32 What a peptide protocol costs and how to start safely
57:17 Taylor Swift, girl dads, and a code for listeners