Bobby

Options Trader

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: SpaceX has selected Goldman Sachs to lead its record-setting IPO, per CNBC.

Also working on the IPO will be Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan.

SpaceX could publicly disclose its prospectus as soon as Wednesday.

[Gad Saad @GadSaad]

Suicidal Empathy is now the #1 book in Canada across ALL books! @HarperCollins @literaryeric

[Bobby @broberts205]

@dougboneparth More like 5 outta 6 years 20%+ returns

[Bobby @broberts205]

@Chris_Kuhlman00 @CollinRugg No way, you filmed??

[Bobby @broberts205]

@StealthQE4 The equity curve is in steep contango, so you get paid 5% to be short…

[Bobby @broberts205]

@darkminer Not sustainable

[Bobby @broberts205]

@StealthQE4 Mortgage borrowers have embedded long put option to refinance out of loan. Lender is short this option. The value of this option has gone up.

Higher rate volatility = increased refinancing risk

[Bobby @broberts205]

@LukasLueg How is this even possible? Has there ever been a time when 1 month TBills YTM is this detached from Fed Funds window?

[Bobby @broberts205]

@mikecleere $2 Trillion in new tax revenue if taxed at 15%? That is laughable

[Bobby @broberts205]

@GregDuncan_ Knowing when to scale and when to dial back

[Bobby @broberts205]

@DenverGazette Denver City Council has also taken away my gym! The Rude Rec Center in west Denver is now closed indefinitely to house illegal immigrants… No compensation or pro-rata reimbursement for my prepaid annual membership!

[Bobby @broberts205]

Big Tech Wreck today! Meta down ~25%, Amazon down 4% (plus an additional -19% after hours), Apple down 3%.

The SPX has held up surprisingly well given the Mega Cap crush...

[Bobby @broberts205]

The more conservative 40/60 portfolio allocation has been crushed this year. Makes the 2nd worst performing year look tiny...

#Investors #Bonds #Stocks

[Bobby @broberts205]

The traditional 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500 and 40% Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond) has had it's worst 1st three quarters of a calendar year on record going back to 1976 (the bond index inception).

This 'wipe out' year presents a rare opportunity for investors.

#SPY #AGG

[Bobby @broberts205]

We are pushing the limits of what the economy can tolerate in terms of interest expense. So in my opinion, interest rates are at or near their cycle high.

#InterestRates #Economy #AGG #TLT #SPY

[Bobby @broberts205]

Aggregate US bonds are yielding ~4.7%, which is still low for historical standards. But this must be viewed in the context of the entire system. Debt-to-GDP is currently ~125%, up from ~30% in 1980.

Based on current yields, we are at a record high interest burden on the economy.

[Bobby @broberts205]

SPX is now down nearly 11% since the original tweet. I still expect equities to be challenged over the next twelve months, but today's prices represent a good buying opportunity for the short to medium term.

Or better yet, monetize the vol premiums & sell some OTM puts...

[Bobby @broberts205]

Good luck to anyone buying into this continued rally.

Although the S&P may continue to grind higher over the next 1-2 weeks, I think now is the time to reduce risk / add hedges. We will likely see something ugly (like in June) when the bears show up again. #SPX

[Bobby @broberts205]

@TruthGundlach Truth!

[Bobby @broberts205]

Interesting comment from Powell:

“So we probably in the housing market need to go through a correction to go back to that place [of balanced supply & demand]”