Brian

[Brian @bshidlar]

@mattyglesias dd37dzddrr xv

[Robert Colvile @rcolvile]

'At this point, 'building housing reduces rent' is as close to a scientific law of the housing market as we’re likely to find' - @Noahpinion

[Jessica Riedl 🧀 🇺🇦 @JessicaBRiedl]

“Why aren’t you cheering Trump & DOGE? I thought you wanted spending and deficit cuts!"

Because I’ve been doing this for 25 years and can’t be tricked by gimmicky nonsense. Trump’s first term added $8 trillion in enacted spending hikes and tax cuts to the deficit - half of which was unrelated to the pandemic. This time around, Trump has proposed roughly $8 trillion more in tax cuts and spending hikes over the decade. And right now, a GOP Congress is preparing to abandon most reconciliation cuts and instead add $325 billion this year in new spending. We’re headed towards $4 trillion deficits within a decade.

So, no, I don’t get excited when DOGE cancels $1 billion in govt contracts. Or saves $3 billion in federal workforce reductions out of a $7,000 billion budget. Not when Trump and Congress are also preparing to add $800 billion more annually in proposed new tax cuts and spending.

And no, the huge savings are not coming. Even (unrealistically) eliminating 20% of the federal workforce would save $60 billion, and overhauling federal systems to sharply reduce payment errors may save perhaps $80 billion (and is probably unlikely too). For all of DOGE’s bluster, administrative and executive reforms would at best save 1-2% of federal spending and offset only a small fraction of Trump’s red ink agenda.

That leaves trying to unilaterally impound spending such as USAID—which is wildly illegal—or actually going to Congress to pare back spending the constitutional way. But Trump has already taken Social Security, Medicare, defense, veterans, border (and interest) off the table, which is 2/3 of all spending and is driving deficits. And the GOP Congress seems ready to give up on cutting the remaining one-third of spending. Want to cut spending and the deficit? How about they stop passing budget-busting bills. Don’t brag about your coupon-clipping frugality at the same time you are buying a $250,000 Ferrari. I’m not going to cheer Trump and DOGE for adding “only” $750 billion to deficits instead of $800 billion. We’re still going backwards.

I’ve spent decades studying the federal budget. I know that $7 trillion(!) behemoth inside and out – where the money really goes, and where the savings opportunities lie. So I can also detect bullshitters who talk tough about trillion-dollar spending cuts without doing their homework. It’s the ones who claim most spending goes to undefined “waste,” federal salaries, immigrants, foreigners, Ukraine, or non-working welfare recipients. It’s the ones who claim we can easily balance the budget or cut $1 trillion without specifying exactly what line-items to cut. Or that we can return to 2019 spending levels for each program, which means a 20% inflationary cut, defaulting on the federal debt, and kicking off every senior who has since retired into Social Security and Medicare. It’s all hot air and empty bluster. Tough talk without following through on anything substantive. Just wait until you see the final deficit numbers in October.

And this is why GOP movements to cut spending always fail. They make absurdly ambitious promises without doing their homework, understanding where the money goes, and specifying real plans to fix it. You can’t significantly cut the deficit just by cutting waste, firing bureaucrats, and defunding immigrants and foreigners. There are no easy short cuts. You have to stop cutting taxes and then address Social Security, Medicare, defense, and a lot of other popular programs. Wake me when the GOP goes there.

So, no, I will not get excited about a couple billion in DOGE savings on one hand while Trump pushes Congress to add $8 trillion over the decade in tax cuts and spending with the other hand. I’m not that gullible.

[Roy Drones Jr @chiweethedog]

“US A? US A? US A? Houuuooogghh”

[Bruce Bartlett @BruceBartlett]

As long as I live, I will never respect anyone who votes for Trump in 2024.

[John Fetterman @JohnFetterman]

Pennsylvania is home to almost half a million Puerto Ricans and nearly 3/4 are able to vote.

They’re crucial to our commonwealth—not a punchline for a desperate joke.

While Trump + his allies won’t stop degrading and belittling, know Kamala Harris is fighting for everyone. 🇵🇷🇺🇸

[Conor Sen @conorsen]

@LPDonovan Can Gen Z possibly comprehend how central the Joe Gibbs teams were to DC’s psyche in the Bush/Reagan years?

[Washington Commanders @Commanders]

HAIL MARY WIN!!! Hear from Coach Quinn & Jayden Daniels https://t.co/7HgESanpsT

[Erick Erickson @EWErickson]

In 2016, a vast array of Republicans aligned behind Trump. Now, he is left with the vulgar antisemites, the white nationalists, and the grifters. Many who backed him then and staffed his administration are now opposed to him. He’ll be a single term President who prizes loyalty above competence, so he’ll elevate the grifters and sycophants over the competent and capable. His second term would be a disaster with no ideological stewardship or guiding principles other than self-interest, not national interest.

[Matt Glassman @MattGlassman312]

This has never been more on display than right now. The optimistic conservatism has been replaced by an ideology of angry victimhood and an outlook that despises a lot of America. Trump's campaign is built around it. They all turned into the whiny leftists I knew in high school.

[Lauren Hitt @LaurenHitt]

New ad from the Harris campaign on reproductive freedom, ahead of the VP's speech in Texas on Friday. This is a very tough one to watch, but it's incredibly important to. Thank you so much to Ondrea and Ceasar for trusting us to share their story.

[Jason Kint @jason_kint]

NYT tweeted this to its 55 million followers and it has under 500 retweets - presumably suppressed due to the link out. “John Kelly, Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, said Trump met the definition of a fascist and would try to govern like a dictator if elected”

[Heath Mayo @HeathMayo]

This dude is a patriot. My goodness.

[Kristen McDonald Rivet @McdonaldRivet]

People say politics comes down to who you want to have a beer with. I’m a mom of 6 with Michigan, working-class roots, and a lifetime record of making things better for working families.
🍻Cheers.

[Paul Graham @paulg]

"Imagine: Children just walking into the cafeteria and getting fed. No accounts that parents have to keep up, no time spent assessing families’ incomes or processing payments or running down parents who haven’t paid — no 'lunch shaming' — none of that."

https://t.co/fx4gzSxDz9

[Coby @Cobylefko]

Lancaster, CA transformed its downtown in just 8 months by redesigning it's main street from a mini-highway to a tree-lined boulevard.

For the cost of just $11.5M, the project has generated $273M in economic output since 2010, creating 800 jobs, and nearly doubling tax revenue!

[Sarah Vogelsong @SarahVogelsong]

California’s decision to ban the sale of new gas-powered cars starting in 2035 will also halt the sale of such vehicles in Virginia due to a 2021 law linking the commonwealth to the Golden State’s vehicle emissions standards, state attorneys have found. https://t.co/UiboXN2tt1