🚨 Bitcoin just dropped from $74,000 to $67,500 in 48 hours. On no real news.
One thesis that fits the data:
The exit liquidity rotation has begun.
In the next months, four companies are raising over $350 billion in fresh equity:
– SpaceX IPO: ~$75B
– OpenAI raise: ~$100B
– Anthropic raise: ~$100B+
– Google net equity issuance: ~$80B
That money has to come from somewhere. Existing portfolios. Risk-on capital. Cash.
Bitcoin is the most liquid risk-on asset on earth. Selling it is the fastest way to free up dollars without triggering tax events on long-held equity positions.
If the most religious Bitcoin holders – the corporate treasuries, the funds, the whales – are even partially rotating to participate in the largest IPO cycle in history, you don't need a news catalyst to explain the drop.
You just need the supply curve to flip.
This isn't bearish on Bitcoin long-term. It's a sign that the entire risk-on crowd is preparing to absorb the largest equity issuance year since 2000.
When the marginal Bitcoin holder needs to be on a SpaceX cap table, Bitcoin goes down for reasons that have nothing to do with Bitcoin.
The exit liquidity avalanche doesn't just hit overvalued stocks.
It hits anything liquid.
Old rule: narrative follows price.
We’re in the “Bitcoin is dead” phase of the script, eulogies, scam talk, and capitulation, right before the Clarity Act Bill is set to pass, a classic case of emotion and backward‑looking stories overpowering logic and forward policy reality.
It’s textbook market psychology: price collapses first, emotion and narratives rush in to rationalize the move, and only later does the structural catalyst arrive that will, in hindsight, make this washout look like a fantastic buying opportunity.
Rinse and repeat.
Have a nice day.
It's amazing how quickly people forget that Tesla created more shareholder value, faster, than any other stock in American history. Now, after years of consolidation, look at this setup. Is it ready to do it again?
🚨BATTLE BETWEEN THE BANKS AND CRYPTO JUST GOT HEATED
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that stablecoins could become a “huge problem” and said he is not happy with the CLARITY Act.
When asked about Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Dimon responded: “He’s full of sh*t.”
An epic battle, Joao. And a hard-fought victory you deserve. Best of luck for the rest of the tournament and the incredible career you have ahead of you.
As for Paris… tu as mon coeur 🫶🏼
This New Glenn rocket explosion released 20% of the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb and that wasn't even the bad part:
→ The pad: LC-36 is the only pad on Earth that launches New Glenn and now it's gone. Over $1B to build. SpaceX needed 7 months to rebuild after a similar hit.
→ The deadline: Amazon needs 1,618 satellites up by July 30 to keep its FCC license. It has ~300. The rocket that was supposed to help fix that just blew up twice in a row
SpaceX made us believe that landing rockets on barges was a normal expectation. Turns out rocket science is hard after all. Wishing the team a speedy recovery 🚀
THE MOMENT JOÃO FONSECA BEAT NOVAK DJOKOVIC AT ROLAND GARROS.
The first teenager to ever beat Novak in a Grand Slam.
And he did it on his mom’s birthday.
We just had a front row seat to history.
The superstar has arrived.
🇧🇷🥹🥹🥹🥹🥹
The strong weekly green candle is now validating the bounce off the 0.5 Fib line.
Summary:
✅ 0.5 Macro Fib Level Defended
✅ Weekly RSI Positive Divergence
✅ Retail risk-appetite returning
The recovery looks like it's just getting started. 📈(6/6)
🚨Crypto Risk Returns🚨
Crypto risk-appetite is quietly crawling back. We look at $HOOD / bitcoin:native . Why? Because $HOOD represents the ultimate retail appetite, while bitcoin:native is the defensive anchor. When this ratio rises, risk is ON. 👇(1/6)
$HOOD’s price is heavily tied to retail trading volume and crypto engagement.
When $HOOD begins outperforming Bitcoin on a structural timeframe, it tells us that the broader retail crowd is waking up, seeking higher-beta risk, and ready to chase the next leg of the cycle. (5/6)
$ETHUSD $BTCUSD Bears are out of their dens and self congratulating with "I told you so", "It's the business cycle, Stupid" etc., messages. The flush this week is typical of Wave 2s. #ETH#BTC
If the fractal continues to hold script:
1️⃣ We should see a swift leg up to Wave D.
2️⃣ One final corrective shakeout to Wave E.
3️⃣ The ultimate macro breakout higher (green arrow 🚀).
History doesn't always repeat, but it sure does rhyme. (4/4)
🧵 The Ethereum Fractal: History Rhyming?
Ever get that feeling of market déjà vu? 🔍 Look at the fascinating analogy between the United States Oil Fund ($USO) and Ethereum ($ETH). Markets are driven by human psychology, and patterns repeat. Check this out. 👇 (1/4) $ETHUSD $BMNR
In the $ETH chart the structural alignment is uncanny. We've endured the exact same belabored B wave and the agonizingly sharp C wave correction. We are sitting right at that exact inflection point. (3/4)