btcTed

Building @HummingbirdFLY_ II 2016 Bitcoiner II Macro and Fintech 🧡

[btcTed @btc_ted]

@txruss69

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Bullish retest of 200W holds, for now. July/Aug/Sept run can start meow or wait….

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The retest is the true signal. Could see it in May and maybe again in Sept/Oct. If both hold above the 200W SMA, giddy-up!

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@GreyHairedTrade There’s our sweep of the lows. Now daily closes need to hold above 59800…build for the July/Aug run. Rinse/repeat Oct/Nov.

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60k-63k zone tapped. Now what? Fake out to the upside then more downside or hold 200W SMA again? Last time, $20k+ move. Is there a run into Sept Oct before another dip?

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The retest is the true signal. Could see it in May and maybe again in Sept/Oct. If both hold above the 200W SMA, giddy-up!

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@GreyHairedTrade 52k+ on the weekly is a huge deal. 👀

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@GreyHairedTrade 52k-55k could be in play this year. Do we bounce to 72k first? Weekly closes below 58k….it gets short term ugly. Lows could wait until Oct-ish….

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@GreyHairedTrade Intraday floor sweep 59k or hangs out there for a week+? If it’s fast move, still bullish. If it’s slow….

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@RobertsSavoy 🫡

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@martypartymusic @Psilosnypin @HardhatChad @ore @ceagleoneism 👀

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@MylesGinvest 👀

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Worthy of a repost.

[David @david_eng_mba]

“The cowards never started.

The weak died along the way.

That leaves us.”

— Phil Knight, Nike founder

When I read that opening, I thought:

That is Bitcoin.
Most never buy.
Most will buy too late.
Most will sell too early.

Most cannot survive the drawdowns, headlines, boredom, leverage wipes, and years of doubt.

Bitcoin does not transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient.

It transfers wealth from fragile conviction to unbreakable conviction grounded in deep understanding.

That leaves us.

[btcTed @btc_ted]

@DevEngineOz Staying away when zero edge is the alpha.

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@GaryCardone Everything is good for Bitcoin.

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@amel_thetrader @bitsofwealth Nice TP, if you held it. 🫡

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@FlashTrade Sick!!

[David @david_eng_mba]

The best Bitcoin case study may be Standard Oil.

Not because Bitcoin is energy.

Because both teach the same principle:

The commodity is not always where the value accrues.

Rockefeller did not get rich owning random oil wells.

He got rich owning the system oil had to move through.

Refining. Pipelines. Railroads. Distribution. Scale.

Oil was the commodity.
The network captured the economics.

Most people think Bitcoin is “digital gold.”

Too narrow.

Bitcoin is monetary infrastructure:
→ Fixed supply
→ Global settlement
→ Proof-of-work security
→ Neutral collateral
→ Finality without a central issuer

The asset and the network are fused.
That is the rare part.

Standard Oil:
The infrastructure layer captured the power.

Bitcoin:
The neutral settlement layer may capture the premium.

Bitcoin is not just an asset inside the financial system.

It is a system money can move through.

[Adam Pomerantz @efficientperson]

Here is my comment: I strongly oppose assigning Bitcoin a 1,250% risk weight under the Basel cryptoasset framework. This punitive treatment is a category error that treats the world’s most transparent, issuerless digital commodity like the riskiest securitization tranches.
Bitcoin has no issuer, no borrower, and no counterparty risk. Its price volatility, liquidity, custody, and operational risks are measurable, hedgeable, and already addressed by existing market-risk (FRTB) and operational-risk rules. Unlike opaque or illiquid assets, Bitcoin trades on deep, global markets 24/7 with a public ledger.
A 1,250% weight (effectively 100% capital requirement) makes it economically impossible for U.S. banks to custody, lend against, or offer Bitcoin services to customers. This forces activity into less-regulated venues, reduces customer protection, harms U.S. competitiveness, and blocks banks from a legitimate asset class that millions of Americans already hold.
Gold and U.S. Treasuries receive 0% risk weights. Bitcoin deserves risk-sensitive treatment as a “non-issuer digital commodity” — not a blanket ban by capital rule.
I urge the Federal Reserve, OCC, and FDIC to reject the 1,250% default and adopt a tailored, risk-based approach that allows safe, regulated bank participation in Bitcoin.
Thank you for considering this comment.

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@bitsofwealth 84k-87k before 69k-72k. 👀

[btcTed @btc_ted]

The retest is the true signal. Could see it in May and maybe again in Sept/Oct. If both hold above the 200W SMA, giddy-up!

[Willy Woo @willywoo]

The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k).

I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt. After that, if BTC manages to hold this price level above 65k and not break down, then the chances of a structural bottom increases significantly.

BTC is currently attempting a bottom, but all the pieces are not yet in place, the next 3-6 weeks will be telling.