btcstoat

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

@RaminNasibov Chaos on the ZX 48K

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

@rot13maxi For actual local inference you might want to check out Krasis - https://t.co/Np08CEeAcm - Qwen-122B at 4880 pp 25 tg on one 5090

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

@saylor @Strategy Would love to see this as a chart

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

@DarioAmodei Do you plan to make this available to smaller software companies (who still build critical infrastructure for millions of companies worldwide) for hardening before releasing it generally?

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

@bcherny That’s great for the ten largest software companies in the world. When do the rest of the software companies get access to harden their systems before this is released to everyone (including bad actors)?

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

So a select few large companies get to harden their software against this and then what? What about smaller companies that also build software that is critical to millions of businesses around the world? What is the plan for allowing them to get access to this before bad actors?

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

@karpathy Currently working on a collaborative knowledge base for LLMs to collaborate. Open source, on GitHub - https://t.co/oQKcCfu2L2

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

@LLMJunky @TheAhmadOsman @0xSero @ivanfioravanti @ZenMagnets @NVIDIAAI https://t.co/Np08CEeAcm

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

@felixrieseberg Snoot does this for multiple conversations over encrypted open Session messaging. https://t.co/EtCWYTPcwI

[Forrest @ForrestHODL]

People think $MSTR needs Bitcoin to outperform its cost of capital.

Not exactly.

Its financing cost with $STRC is linear.
Bitcoins growth is compounded.

Break even for this strategy in a 20 year timeframe is a compound annual growth rate for Bitcoin of 6.16%

[Haseeb ＞|＜ @hosseeb]

On the one hand, AI influencers are breathlessly raving about Claude Code, Clawdbot, and Cowork. And on the other hand, most people I know—even software engineers—are despondent, overwhelmed about how everything is changing so quickly. I hear this from people early in their careers especially, a fear that everything they've learned and the skills they've gained are rapidly being devalued.

This is a mental trap. Don't fall for it. You should not just be watching from the sidelines or reading articles about "how software engineering is changing."

Imagine it was 1993 and the personal computer revolution was kicking off. If you could go back in time to then, what should you have done?

The answer: try everything. Buy a PC. Learn how to touch type. Figure out what the Internet is. Imbibe it all. Don't wait until it becomes a job requirement.

That's exactly what you should do with AI. Try everything. Try Claude Code, try Clawdbot, try the Excel integrations, Veo, everything you can get your hands on. Learn what it's doing. Build your intuitions. Be one step ahead of it. Evolve alongside it. Don't lose your curiosity or get swallowed by anxiety or let yourself be convinced that you'll learn it when you have to. Think deeply about how AI will change the things around you—not society, that's too hard to project—but how it will change your job, your personal life, your immediate environment.

No matter how old you are or young you are, no matter what stage of your career you are in, we are all going through the biggest technological change of the last 100 years, and we're going through it together. Nobody has the answers. It's obvious that so much is going to change, but nobody is going to figure it out before you do if you choose to stay at the frontier.

So don't hide from it. Sit at the front of the class. Pay close attention. And be grateful that it's never been easier to stay at the frontier of the most important technology change of our lifetimes.

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

@hillery_dan Not stating this as fact, just a best attempt to understand.

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

If the liquidation preference is itself a major part of the value of STRF then STRF is effectively a ratchet. With every increase it’s fully backed by MSTR and their 600k BTC regardless of the price so why would it ever go down?

But the liquidation preference only applies on liquidation. If there is zero risk of liquidation it seems to me the liquidation preference relevance to price is also close to zero

If there is elevated risk of liquidation then it matters a lot more but at the same time that would mean BTC has fallen 99%+ and their ability to even pay STRF a meaningful amount comes into question, so again I would say minimal relevance.

So I think STRF’s value is more about the dividend and the estimation of Strategy’s ability to pay that. If Strategy decided to actively put an floor on STRF by buying under a given value then that would also prop it up as if liquidation preference was highly relevant, but I think that goes against the point of STRF, where the idea is (ex an extreme liquidation case) basically all the value comes from the fixed dividend.

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

@thepowerfulHRV @LiefMagnus Important to keep in mind that as these companies add BTC if the stock price is unreactive and stays stable (sticky) then the mNAV compresses down. Strategy’s recent BTC accumulation even since Nov 24 has been wild.

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

@hillery_dan @JoshMandell6 I follow you until you say they can’t ATM more STRF. In your scenario if it’s trading at $400 that’s super cheap money they can use so could ATM a ton suppressing the STRF price, buy BTC, or even MSTR and redress the imbalance all while accruing more BTC per share?

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

This is right I think. BTC acquisition is key to days to cover, if they pause acquisition by pausing the ATM then days to cover increases and a higher mNAV is less justified (resulting in a potential negative spiral).

That said, the common ATM is a mixed bag as it is also a driver of lower sentiment for a vocal group and must be to some degree suppressive of the price and mNAV because of that.

Most importantly though, this all seems irrelevant long term because we are in a transitional period.

The collective preferred ATMs have been increasing so as this continues they gradually replace the common ATM (while maintaining BTC acquisition and DTC throughout) and then we are in a situation where Strategy has largely or fully transitioned away from the common ATM into just pumping money from the bond and money markets into BTC in a way that is directly and hugely accretive to common stockholders.

This could also accelerate a lot if the preferreds get rated. Either way when we reach that point the common surely becomes a rocket ship.

@PunterJeff

[100% Strategy @StrategyMaxi]

$STRC = Money
$STRF, $STRK, $STRD = Bonds
$MSTR = Equity

Strategy has access to over $500T market.

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

@hillery_dan @Journey2323 https://t.co/b6H2qpSwOP

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

For anyone else confused by this the liquidation preference price is the $ amount per share holders of STRK will receive on liquidation of MSTR before common stock holders get anything. It doesn’t affect dividend payouts or the conversion to common stock, only the case where MSTR goes into liquidation, in which case MSTR has to be divided up between holders of the stock and STRK will get preference to MSTR holders and be paid not at $100 (used to be the case) now it will be paid at the greater of $100 or the avg of the last 10 days traded price, so better protection for capital held by STRK holders when the stock trades above par/$100.

[btcstoat @btcstoat]

@saylor Meanwhile OTC desk balances have been falling fast and are under 150k BTC. Second half of 2025 should be interesting.