@KellanMccauley @goldseaboat $SMLR hit $75 with less than half the BTC they hold now. Momentum got clipped by the SEC cloud and some frivolous lawsuits.
Let Eric cook. We’re just setting the table.
We must live in different worlds… you’re looking at a 10% move from $112K to $125K like it’s a stretch… I see it as conservative. You’re not factoring in the rate cut setup or the synthetic halving effect from all these BTC treasury plays. This isn’t a normal market… supply is disappearing while demand is gearing up for something bigger. Mstr front running will cause Saylor to hit the ATM and force even more buying. Prepare accordingly….
@goldseaboat @KellanMccauley If $SMLR doubles its shares to ~20M and hits 10,000 BTC with Bitcoin at $160K, that’s $1.6B in BTC on the balance sheet or $82/share in BTC alone. Apply just a 1.5x MNAV, and you’re looking at $123/share before assigning any value to the core medical business.
$MSTR holds the most pristine collateral on Earth: Bitcoin. Not USD. Not treasuries. Not real estate. Censorship resistant, instantly liquid, self custodied, and deflationary. This isn’t a company… it’s a monetary base layer.
@SemlerEric your BTC accumulation strategy is game changing, but how are you balancing the market’s fear of dilution from the ATM with the long-term value creation for shareholders? And if you had to bet on one milestone…10,000 BTC or S&P 600 inclusion…happening first, which would it be?
@DanChilders7 Dan, you nailed it on the BTC buys at 50M. $SMLR is cooking…4,264 BTC now, 10,000 by year-end? At $160K/BTC, that’s $1.6B NAV on a sub-$600M cap. This is $MSTR 2.0: earlier, faster, hungrier. The market is still asleep. We’re not!!!
-🔵BLUE line represents $smlr current projected YE BTC Owned at just shy of 9,000 BTC.
-🟣PURPLE line represents $smlr projected YE BTC Owned **if** the current pace from the past fives weeks continues. Should that happen, the ATM will be fully deployed by Aug/Sept and a new capital plan would need to be issued for the remainder of the year. This is actually moving much faster than I anticipated originally.
-What I believe the market has struggled to understand about Semler is just how fast they are willing/able to go. Admittedly, it has been a bumpy yet ultimately successful first year. There have been periods of tremendous acceleration and periods of stagnation (for events outside of their control). Understandably, periods of inactivity are not rewarded favorably by the market. Only the closest followers of the story understand the full context around those two periods of inactivity. Many left for shinier objects. No qualms there - bullish on everything touching BTC and I own other BTC Treasury Companies in size.
- $smlr is now fully back in the game and has purchased $115M of BTC in the last 30 days; after not purchasing any BTC for over two months. Before that inactive period they had just deployed a $100M convertible bond. It sounds erratic when looking back on it this way, but if you understand the context you can look past it to easily see a much brighter future. The recent five weeks are the new indicator now. BTC Yield and other KPIs are reaccelerating. Leverage ratio is coming into balance very nicely.
- In my opinion, “the market” doesn’t even recognize the 🔵BLUE line (current trajectory) is possible, let alone the 🟣PURPLE line. If that characterization is true, then the market will likely be playing catch-up as this continues to unfold at the current pace. That dynamic will reinforce momentum and allows the remaining $385M to be purchased in an increasingly accretive manner. This is exactly why in @SemlerEric announcement today he concluded “flywheel in motion”. The flywheel had been ground to a halt - it’s accelerating again. The more the market sees it, the faster it goes, the more value they deliver for shareholders, rinse and repeat.
- Will be an interesting next few weeks as the market gains more conviction that headwinds have shifted to tailwinds and starts to calculate these probabilities of acceleration into the future.
@SemlerEric $SMLR is the stealth MSTR.
4,264 BTC and gunning for 10,000.
They’re buying every week. $501M market cap with $480M in BTC already. This ends one way: explosive re-rate. $200+ this year might not be too far away.