Brian Gable

☀️ 🌊 🏄🏼‍♂️ 💦 🏝️ when I’m not in the sun or surf, I’m slingin light therapy

[Bill D'Alessandro @BillDA]

I never want to hear the term LTV again.

Every ecommerce brand should be run off two true north customer metrics: LTR and LTP.

The problem is that LTV is a revenue metric. Not profit. Not cash. Revenue.

And the next words out of people's mouths after "LTV" is usually "CAC" - and revenue is a pretty dumb thing to compare to CAC.

Revenue still has to survive COGS, freight, fulfillment, refunds, merchant fees, and all the other little margin goblins hiding in the P&L before you can use it to pay for CAC.

This sounds obvious until you see how often it gets abused. Brand says: "Our LTV:CAC is 4:1" and means "We paid $50 to acquire a customer who eventually spends $200."

Great, except that $200 might include $60 of COGS, $25 of shipping / fulfillment, $7 of merchant fees, and $20 of refunds, subscription discounts, fraud, etc.

So your $200 "LTV" is actually $88 of contribution profit before CAC.

Your "4:1" ratio just became 1.4 to 1

And that’s before fixed overhead, agency fees, payroll, software, and profit (you do want profit right?)

This is why ecommerce brands should kill the term LTV entirely and split it into two metrics:

LTR = Lifetime Revenue.
This is what most people are calling LTV today. It’s useful! It tells you whether customers come back, how strong repeat behavior is, how long the reorder cycle is, whether cohorts are expanding or decaying, and whether the product has real downstream demand or you just bought a first order.

But LTR is not profit. It’s a revenue metric. Use it for retention, cohort quality, forecasting, merchandising, subscription analysis, etc. Do not put it in a ratio with CAC.

LTP = Lifetime Profit.
This is the number that actually matters. LTP = lifetime revenue - COGS - shipping / fulfillment - merchant fees - refunds / discounts.

You can argue about exactly what else belongs in there - customer service, packaging, duties, pick/pack, whatever. Different businesses have different cost structures.

But the principle is simple: how much contribution profit does this customer generate before acquisition cost? That is the pool of money available to pay CAC.

If LTP:CAC is below 1:1, you are losing money on acquired customers and you need to pull back.

If you spend $60 to acquire a customer and they generate $45 of lifetime contribution profit, you are not “investing in growth.” You are paying people $15 to buy your product.

That may be intentional. Maybe you’re venture-backed. Maybe you’re buying market share. Maybe you have a credible path to better gross margin, higher AOV, stronger repeat purchase, cheaper shipping, or lower CAC. Fine. Just call it what it is.

The question that really matters for brands is: how much profit does a customer generate, how long does it take to show up, and what did we pay to get it? So yes, track lifetime revenue. Just call it LTR.

But run your customer acquisition on LTP. And stop comparing revenue to CAC.

I never want to hear about LTV again.

[Brian Gable @btgable]

@MaxGulhaneMD @grok true?

[☣️ Pleb Kruse = BTC foundationalist in exile 🟩🔆 @DrJackKruse]

From Ced Mayfield: Wisdom you can trust

[Brian Gable @btgable]

@Nate_Google_ Ratings

[Brian Gable @btgable]

@johnhickey1970 I’m in!

[Brian Gable @btgable]

@Adam64396134955 @DrJackKruse 8 days surfing in CR. I took DHA/EPA oil, Astaxanthin, & cocoa flavanols every day. Also early am sun in the surf and red / NIR LED panels for my siesta. No sunscreen. Came back tan, negligible burn, no peeling. And the waves & sun were cookin! So different from my last trip 🤯

[Brian Gable @btgable]

@DrJackKruse Thank you.

[Brian Gable @btgable]

@DrJackKruse Uncle Jack, thank you for this post. As a surfer, I stay out in the tropical sun in CR for almost 4 hours at a time. If I don’t apply sunscreen, I fry. Fitz skin type 2. Working on red light and flavanols to build UV resilience, but concerned on exposure time. What to do?

[Brian Gable @btgable]

@IdrisEcom_email Boll

[Andrew D. Huberman, Ph.D. @hubermanlab]

Trad media now covering the alcohol cancer link, a call for warning labels etc. Ahem “I told you so” but moreso, the data are NOT new. Let’s be smart & eliminate the phthalates & BPAs & certain food additives- which we know are endocrine altering/carcinogenic ASAP. Why risk it?

[Brian Gable @btgable]

@helloitsdrew_ Compare

[Brian Gable @btgable]

@IdrisEcom_email Dura

[Brian Gable @btgable]

@AlpacaAurelius Ok but if you surf for four hours in the blazing sun, is it not a viable solution for burn prevention? Yeah I can wear a hat, but that’s a different problem. Seems like there is some value.

[Zaid K. Dahhaj @zaidkdahhaj]

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Do you need more?

[Brian Gable @btgable]

@obviceo My 18 year old kid made this from my wife’s trip to Sicily. She can help https://t.co/zOGJ9c3adI

[Brian Gable @btgable]

@andruyeung Social anxiety

[Taylor Holiday @TaylorHoliday]

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[Eddie_King @Friar2Bolts]

This is how aggressive I want the Chargers to pursue Harbaugh

[Brian Gable @btgable]

@NOELreports @SenAlexPadilla @RepKatiePorter @RepMikeLevin

[Brian Gable @btgable]

Warm Waters https://t.co/JcXANvy25E