BTT Sports

pointedbeak on Kalshi

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@SamENole Just completely arbitrary. I'm sure Mark Clattenburg would have agreed though.

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@galenhall They look good, were very likely to win the group after the game and will most likely be in a very easy quadrant in the bracket. 5.2% is pretty reasonable.

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@carnitastaco @AmericanNumbers A lot of public models are using some sort of ELO as baseline but if you compare South America's qualifying process to Europe they played more games but each game was also far less relevant and I don't think they're making any attempt to account for that

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@Random501901 @Rishibets There's maybe room for someone who wants to market make at scale to raise capital but my understanding is that account snipes mention markets which is not scalable and yes this comes across as scammy.

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@ibetpal His model more broken than Nate Silver's. At some point have to take some ownership and not publish that. So much wrong with it - also wonder if some of these people are even simulating. Even if you have Group D teams rated low they should win more than 1% given bracket shape.

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@Jay4622 @AmericanNumbers Yeah imo more likely there's less urgency to score rather than more. Much less premium on finishing 1st in group with 32 teams, also potential for downright negative incentives to finishing 1st.

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@EA2588 Missed this, what a hole from him. PGA Tour account called it "self-discipline" lmao.

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@Rishibets Agree at 80% they should have known better, and personally this isn't a market I would have touched at all. But lots of markets do have legitimate rule ambiguity. This one had none and Poly's stance on these has basically been "let them get fleeced" which is v bad to me.

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@Rishibets I know, if it was it would have traded at 0c. Just seems absurd to say "there's usually a reason" when the "reason" is the market won't resolve to the literal interpretation of the current rules and a lot of influential voices seemed to know that.

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@Rishibets I don't understand this line of thinking. If the market was expected to not resolve Yes because the announcement also had to be by May 31st then it should have been trading at/close to 0c. Don't agree it's "shot taking" but the bigger issue is Polymarket's process on these.

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@ZubbyBadger It's hard to wrap my head around but I think a lot of fish don't really think that differently regardless of whether the market is on an election or something that actually has risk of being a "scam" (like some pop culture markets w/ obvious insider risk).

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@DM724412 This is true, and I am somewhat new to the mystery of this guy but it's hard not to overreact to the players melt especially. I think he sometimes gets a pass for tilting because he doesn't visually appear as agitated as some guys.

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

If you think the NBA draft order needs a rework look up how Sweden qualified for the World Cup, could not believe what I read, thought the AI summary had to be hallucinating.

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@EA2588 Not sure it will really help or hurt Paxton much either way and who knows wouldn't be shocked if they drop this line of attack tomorrow but they just spew stuff to see what sticks and I think they believe calling liberal men trans/gay/whatever excites their base

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@ChrisMurphyCT Fair but this is literally the espnbet account. The post is obvious clickbait content which is a separate problem, Instagram sports content wasn't exactly a hotbed of joy and community pre sports betting.

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@Rishibets Yeah he's way off on this, only question is if it's extreme self interest or genuine delusion.

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@Domahhhh "Kalshi's control over a user's trading on the site is minimized". When I click on the sports tab on the Kalshi app, the first thing I see is "popular combos" and live betting. If not sportsbook, why sportsbook shaped?

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@EA2588 Maybe it's good for him, perhaps he needs to be trailing in order to ship it.

[BTT Sports @bttsports]

@eightyhi Yeah this issue is really showing how hard it is to have market descriptions and rules that satisfy everyone. The market is for the Democratic nominee. Sisolak can still theoretically be the nominee. It would actually be terrible practice to close strikes early in this case.