Bogdan Tudorancea

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

@GeorgeGammon It's oil. 10y and oil price are correlated. Who thinks there will be any fed rate hike, is deluded.

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

Keep hearing this story. Seems to be an Internet favorite. How Europe hates AC. Fake news. I'm in Europe, I have AC, most people in my city have AC. In southern European countries it's basically universal. True, in the northern countries, AC is not that popular. That's because until a few years ago, it was not needed there. Now it definitely is needed, and the line that divides regions where AC is rarely used from regions where it's universally used is going to slowly move northward. Very predictable evolution.

[Beff (e/acc) @beffjezos]

CLIs are the new UIs

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

@haider1 Still not better than humans at task of learning itself. No memory. No continous self. Just transient instantiations of the same set of fixed weights. The process of training an LLM is still incredibly inefficient compared to human learning.

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

@IntuitMachine The governments can ban any models, except the open-source ones. They would have to ban computers to stop everyone from using open-source models.

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

The solution is growth through technology driven productivity increases. As a short term, emergency measure, the retirement age can be tweaked. But that won't last long if AI creates massive unemployment. In that scenario some kind of universal income / dividend will be needed on top of existing pensions. The changes will be so radical that the whole system would have to be rebuilt from the ground up. But, in any case, a sovereign investment fund will probably be an important piece of the system.

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

@PawlowskiMario The only chance to cure this disease is European integration, and the creation of a federation.

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

That is obvious. And it is such an easy rebuke to all those from the US that are loudly fighting against the EU. When someone like Vance is going to Germany and supports the AFD, and argues against the EU, is like Von der Leyen or Macron would go to Texas to suport a movement for Texas independence, and to argue against the USA. How would that be seen by the american public?

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

@signulll First of all we should forget the idea of specialized education with the purpose of having a career, or getting a job. General education is all that remains.

[Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @rshereme]

A world renowned historian Timothy Snyder, in a recent interview with Newsweek Polska, offered a warning that Poland’s leaders would do well to heed.

“The war of memory is much more comfortable for Polish politicians than the real war,” Snyder said.

“They can say: we are right, we are innocent, I know history. But one must begin with what is happening now, not with memory. If you skip that, you start with a lie.”

On the controversy over Ukraine’s honoring of the UPA, Snyder cautioned against judging such decisions without context: “To judge Zelensky’s decision to name a unit after the UPA without the context of almost four and a half years of war would be a mistake. This is the longest war of this century, longer than the First World War. It produces emotions that are difficult for the West to understand.”

He also noted that Ukrainians and Poles remember different chapters of the same history: “Ukrainians think about the UPA mainly through its third phase, the struggle against the Red Army after 1945. Poles remember the first phase: 1943, when the UPA killed tens of thousands of Poles in Volhynia. The mistake is to forget the rest of the history.”

And his sharpest warning should concern everyone: “On the battlefield, Russia will lose. In Warsaw and Kyiv, Russia will win the war of memory.”

Stripping President Zelensky of Poland’s highest honor was not an act of wisdom. It was an emotional response that elevated historical grievance over present reality. Ukraine is fighting the longest war of this century, and Poland’s security depends on its survival. To turn an ally into an adversary over unresolved history serves neither truth nor justice – it serves only Moscow. That is the trap Snyder named.

The war of memory cannot be won. It can only be exploited – and there is one power waiting to exploit it.

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

@haider1 Question is, who gets the mandate of heaven next?

[roon @tszzl]

as the technology becomes more science fiction i see a lot of commentators, technical staff etc trying hard to not think thoughts that feel science fiction as a defense mechanism. but you need to. it’s the only way you’ll make good choices for the future

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

@teortaxesTex You need something like Mythos to distill an Opus 4.8 level model, and Mythos was available just for a few days. So distillation doesn't explain it. Maybe it was fine-tuned to beat the benchmarks.

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

@St33lMouse @haider1 Yes, but they can only restrict future models. Once an open weight model gets released, it cannot be unreleased.

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

@PeterSchadenbe2 @ProjectLiberal When you want not to be culturally conquered, you come to your neighbors with a superior cultural proposition, you don't come with tanks and bombs!

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

Of course. Before the start of the war it was obviously a secret. Lavrov was officially laughing off as ridiculous any suggestions that an invasion was being prepared. But the americans managed to get access to the plans, and they informed the ukrainians and NATO allies, and even made some of it public - before 24FEB2022. The russians famously equipped some of their invasion troops with gala uniforms, as they were supposed to participate in the grand victory parade in Kiev. So, there is no doubt now that a lighting fast victory was indeed the plan. After the defeat in Kiev, officially admiting it would have been highly embarassing.

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

@MichaelAArouet Sometimes there are no complicated reasons, just old fashioned stupidity.

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

@ianbremmer As Sarah Paine said, a "pivotal error".

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

@beffjezos @elder_plinius I have a better suggestion: make @elder_plinius the head of the new government department dealing with AI jailbreaks.

[Bogdan Tudorancea @btud01]

@stevekrouse Depends on the problem difficulty. Fable is simply at a different level of capability and autonomy. Benchmarks don't fully reflect that actually.