To be clear:
5 Year Cycle is a meme.
We are easing into 2026 so we head higher and the 4 year cycle is dead.
We will see new all time highs in 2026, not the typical year long bear market we see post peak 4 year cycle.
However I donโt specifically have a good reason to say itโs over in 2026 yet.
Iโm just assuming we run it too hot and things get out of control.
In which case policy flips back the other direction going into 2027 post midterms.
However if thatโs not the case it could certainly be a 6 or 7 year cycle.
The number doesnโt matter, easing flipping into tightening is what matters.
Everyone else flip flops around and their view simply follows price action.
Iโve stayed consistent. The 4 year cycle is dead, coordinated global easing in 2026, Trump runs it hot into the midterms, eSLR reforms etc.
5 Year Cycle.
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