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"ETH is the fucking Microsoft operating system in crypto that the financial system will use."
Raoul Pal on why Ethereum isn't weak - it's misunderstood.
The price action looks brutal. Sentiment is broken. But Raoul argues most investors are missing where ETH actually sits in the cycle.
"This is the broadest density of talent. It has been battle tested longer than any other smart contract platform."
Full episode with @RaoulGMI of @RealVision on New Era Finance 🎙️
Pure $BMNR hopium math:
BMNR’s “Alchemy of 5%” target is roughly 6.035M ETH.
If they get there, $BMNR becomes the closest thing the public market has to a giant Ethereum treasury + staking yield vehicle.
Now imagine $ETH wakes up again.
Assuming BMNR reaches 5% of ETH supply and share count stays around 586M, rough NAV/share looks like this:
ETH $3K = BMNR NAV/share around $32
ETH $4K = around $42
ETH $5K = around $52
ETH $6K = around $63
ETH $7K = around $73
ETH $8K = around $83
ETH $9K = around $94
ETH $10K = around $104
But that is only NAV.
In a real ETH bull cycle, treasury stocks do not always trade at 1x NAV.
They can trade at 2x, 3x, even 4x NAV if the market believes they can keep raising capital, staking ETH, increasing ETH per share, and becoming the dominant public ETH proxy.
So the dream math becomes:
ETH $3K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $64-$127
ETH $4K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $84-$168
ETH $5K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $105-$210
ETH $6K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $125-$251
ETH $7K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $146-$292
ETH $8K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $167-$333
ETH $9K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $187-$374
ETH $10K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $208-$416
That is why $BMNR gets weird.
It is not just ETH beta.
It is ETH beta + staking yield + treasury premium + reflexivity.
The reflexivity is the fun part:
If BMNR trades above NAV, they can potentially raise capital at a premium.
If they raise capital at a premium and buy more ETH, NAV/share can grow.
If NAV/share grows, the market may reward the premium again.
That is the MSTR-style loop, but for ETH.
Now $BMNU is the degenerate side quest.
$BMNU is 2x daily $BMNR.
Not 2x forever.
Daily.
That means if BMNR trends cleanly, BMNU can go absolutely vertical.
But if BMNR chops sideways, BMNU can bleed even if the long-term thesis is right.
Rough dream math from around $1 BMNU:
If BMNR goes to $60-$70, BMNU could be $10-$15+ in a clean trend.
If BMNR goes to $100-$150, BMNU could be $35-$80+.
If BMNR goes to $200+, BMNU can become a full chaos instrument.
But only if the path is clean.
A violent up/down chop can destroy the math.
Timeline for the dream:
ETH $3K-$4K: possible in a strong recovery window if ETH reclaims $2K, ETF flows return, and ETH/BTC turns.
ETH $5K-$6K: more likely during a real bull expansion where ETH reclaims ATH and institutions rotate beyond BTC.
ETH $8K-$10K: late-cycle dream scenario, probably needs ETF demand, CLARITY-style regulatory tailwinds, stablecoin/tokenization growth, staking demand, and full ETH narrative revival.
Simple read:
$ETH is the asset.
$BMNR is the public treasury vehicle.
$BMNU is the leveraged lottery ticket.
If ETH returns to beast mode and BMNR reaches 5%, the stock does not need to trade at NAV forever.
The real hopium is mNAV expansion.
That is where the numbers get stupid.
Michael, I'm telling you right now you have a chance to become the next Satoshi. All you need to do is sneak into the Microstrategy office at night and burn every last BTC coin that MSTR holds and either rope or run away to Russia. We candle to $1m per BTC and they will be making movies and statues of you for the next millennia.
Michael, I'm telling you right now you have a chance to become the next Satoshi. All you need to do is sneak into the Microstrategy office at night and burn every last BTC coin that MSTR holds and either rope or run away to Russia. We candle to $1m per BTC and they will be making movies and statues of you for the next millennia.
ANTHROPIC JUST DROPPED 13 FREE CLAUDE CERTIFICATIONS AND ALMOST NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT IT.
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START HERE
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FOR EDUCATION AND NONPROFITS
08. AI Fluency for Students
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FOR ENTERPRISE
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Claude just turned my laptop into a private quant analyst.
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I think May and June could be brutal for crypto, and in this video I walk through exactly why I still believe BTC could push all the way down to $38,555 before this bear market leg is done. The core of the argument comes from the crypto calendar and how the last real bottom years behaved, especially when you compare monthly closes with the full wick-to-wick volatility inside those candles.
I break down what those historical averages imply for BTC first, then apply the same lens to ETH and the broader market. The important point is not just that monthly closes could be red. It is that the intramonth volatility can get much uglier than the close alone suggests, which is why a move that looks manageable on paper can still feel like a bloodbath in real time.
I also zoom out to TOTALES and the smaller-cap market to show how deep the damage could go if the same kind of bear-market behavior repeats. That is where the opportunity comes in too. If this forecast is even directionally right, the next two months could create some of the best accumulation windows of the cycle, but only for people who stay patient, think probabilistically, and avoid pretending projections are guarantees.
The biggest takeaway is that this is a forecast, not a certainty. July has historically looked stronger, but I do not treat that as proof the full bottom is in. Right now I am using the best historical data we have to map the downside, prepare for volatility, and think ahead instead of reacting after the damage is already done.
Crypto Calendar:
https://t.co/iQ6IXKoKZ0
Chapters:
00:00 Bitcoin to $38,555 by June?
01:48 BTC May and June historical forecast
03:19 Bitcoin volatility and lower wick projections
06:40 June could be even worse for BTC
10:47 Why this data comes from The Better Traders Club
12:34 Ethereum May and June forecast
15:30 ETH volatility and the $1,000 target
20:02 What TOTALES shows about the whole crypto market
23:29 TOTALES May and June downside projections
27:04 TOTALES vs TOTALLY50 vs TOTALLY100 explained
31:39 TOTALLY50 forecast and mid-cap risk
34:51 TOTALLY100 forecast and smaller-cap risk
36:21 Why July could bring a bounce
37:40 These are projections, not guarantees
40:02 How traders should prepare
41:48 Trading volatility and final thoughts
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