for years i kept a private discord server with one channel and one member. me.
every trade i made, i wrote the thesis in the channel before i clicked buy. worst case, base case, bull case. what would make me sell. what would make me add.
no one else read it. that was the point.
it forced me to articulate what i actually believed, in writing, before risking money on it.
most of the trades i wrote up never actually got made.
once i had to put the thesis in words, i realized i didn't have one other than fomo.
the trades you don't take are often the best ones.
Yesterday, I had an 80% chance to win $270,000.
Today, I walked away with $0.
I had 3 options:
1. Win $270,000
2. Take $126,000
3. Lose $550
I took the risk, and it didn’t pay off.
$270,000 would’ve been a life-changing amount of money for me. I could’ve bought a house, invested more into my stock portfolio and/or invest more into the $TON ecosystem.
One of the greatest upsets in the history of sports took place yesterday, and I was on the wrong end of it.
With a 99.99% probability to win (not exaggerating) my player, Jannik Sinner, developed cramps just 4 points away from victory to advance to the next round of French Open. His opponent was still miles away from winning, but it didn’t matter, Sinner was physically destroyed.
I don’t regret my decision in the slightest. Ask any Math professor in the world — Harvard, Yale, MIT, it doesn’t matter; They would all agree with the decision I made.
$126,000 out of $270,000 was a significant downplay to the fair value (EV) that my bet had on it.
I woke up today, started a new day, and made the most of it. It started off by speaking with an incredible panel on X Spaces, and then winning $60,000 on a tennis bet at the same tournament.
I felt like posting this because I see a strong parallel to the way I invest. I believe strongly in what I buy, even though I know there is risk involved — and even if my position substantially increases in size, why should I be comfortable settling with mediocrity?
To make it big, you have to risk it big; I didn’t get to the position I’m in today by stacking a dollar here and there, I took risk.
Conviction. Execution. Validation.
Ficar tão focado em ganhar dinheiro com pouco dinheiro me deixou extremamente depressivo.
Vou acumular, arrumar mais fontes de entrada de dinheiro e depois vou alavancar.
Não faz o menor sentido tentar uma alavancagem com pouco dinheiro.
#GM
i've tried lots of ways to trade crypto.
scalping. leverage. day trading. swing trading. spot.
most of it was early in my career (2017 - 2020) when i had a day job and the only goal was make money as fast as possible.
i didn't hate scalping. i wanted to be good at it. i wanted to be good at leverage. i tried a bunch of indicators, a bunch of setups, a bunch of styles. none of it truly clicked.
part of the problem was structural. with a day job i could only sit down for an hour or two at a time, which meant i was forcing trades on my schedule instead of taking the ones the market actually offered.
but the bigger problem was me. i'm lazy by default. i'll put in max effort on something i think will pay off big, and basically low effort on anything else.
what actually fit: finding a narrative before it was saturated, doing the research, waiting for the right entry, and then sitting in spot while the market caught up.
once i'm in a position, i can mentally check in and check out. shitpost. monitor sentiment. let the thesis play out. that's the version of this game that fits my brain.
the lesson i'd offer anyone still figuring it out: the trading style matters less than whether it actually fits you. there are profitable scalpers and profitable swing traders and profitable degens. they're all running different playbooks. they just stopped fighting their own wiring and found the one that fit them.
Cripto é insano porque você literalmente nunca sabe quando a oportunidade vai aparecer.
Você pode passar anos sem ganhar quase nada…
e então, do nada, fazer 6 ou 7 dígitos praticamente da noite pro dia.
Pouquíssimos lugares no mundo ainda permitem esse tipo de assimetria.
É isso que deixa esse mercado tão viciante:
você nunca sabe qual madrugada vai mudar sua vida financeira.
Desde que entrei no ecossistema de investimento de alto risco só tomei na cabeça por seguir opiniões alheias. Esse jogo pede que vc tire sãs próprias conclusões.
Conclui isso depois de tanto perder.