Better businesses at lower prices.
One of the biggest mistakes investors make is allowing price action to dictate their view of fundamentals rather than the other way around.
Even after the recent pullback in metal prices, miners continue to generate margins that would have seemed extraordinary just a few years ago.
Yet many of these companies are trading as if the economics of the business have materially deteriorated.
They haven't.
https://t.co/uEgAcJ9Yh3
This morning I’m reading “alarmingly low US distillate stocks” ~7MM bbls above operationally challenging levels, and Mercuria head of freight saying 10% of global ships could be forced to stop NEXT MONTH due to fuel shortages. This is how we go from oil pricing deficits to pricing shortages.
When weighing the growth of the Canadian economy against the outsized growth of the Canadian population, the country has already been in a “per-capita recession” for much of the last four years.
Supply chains are starting to break down
- motor oil, diesel oil, and specialty fluids categories to drop by 40%
- 70% of the dollar value of goods shipped in the US are transported by truck
Less motor oil and specialty fluids mean supply chains are becoming more fragile and more expensive.
Critical maintenance products become scarce, transportation costs rise, equipment downtime increases, and bottlenecks start to appear throughout the economy.
Meanwhile markets are at all time highs
Google is raising $80 billion of equity a week before SpaceX is trying to raise $75 billion a few months before Anthropic and OpenAI are trying to raise $100 billion from investors and you’re laughing???
This is a cataclysmic exit liquidity avalanche
Gold Miners are quietly building a large base versus the underlying gold price.
A base breakout would likely trigger the next leg of the gold miner bull market.
Nobody cares because it's not AI or semis.
$GDX
Feeling mentally exhausted from the non-stop stream of conflicting headlines/rumours/tweets/truths??? Focus on "the day after." Depleted inventories, damaged infrastructure, loss of productive capacity, plateau-ish of US shale, risk premium, and 10%-20% FCF yields at $80WTI.
Five "deal" announcements, zero closed (yet). That's a trend. Sell the tweet, buy the molecule. Iran's leverage increases with every day that passes and inventories decline, while it decreases for the West.
Thank you to @SquawkCNBC Asia for having me on this morning. Attached is the clip: 50 years of efficiency made oil cheaper per unit of GDP but more irreplaceable in function -- it is the rare earth of the macro system.
https://t.co/z7gKF3NABH
AI energy, materials and water needs might be the catalyst for the 4th turning kicking into high gear. Might turn out that human workers will be cheaper than AI, given resource limitations.
Imagine that!