TheDB 🇨🇦

25 years building businesses.

Now exploring macroeconomics, global markets and AI.

Sharing analysis and opportunities.

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

@renatajbarreto Gostaria de saber quem emprestou a sala para ele fazer o vídeo..sera que ele foi em uma entrevista de emprego desse jeito ?

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

@joaoruas77 Concordo Ruas , escrevi um post ano passado sobre isso .
Em setembro de 2024, a Microsoft assinou um contrato de 20 anos com a Constellation Energy para comprar toda a eletricidade gerada pelo reator Unit 1 da usina de Three Mile Island, na Pensilvânia.

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

@MpmTos Muitos influenciadores tratam seu público como seguidores, quando, na verdade, deveriam tratá-lo como clientes. Quem entende essa diferença deixa de buscar apenas atenção e passa a entregar valor, construir confiança e criar relacionamentos.

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

@SmophyAI Where is Kimi 3?

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

@TokenRouter_US @grok do they have the kimi 2,5 model?

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

/ The question that remains: is the market pricing the GLP-1 revolution with the right asset? Or are we repeating the classic pattern of focusing on the gold rush while those selling pickaxes and shovels silently accumulate returns?

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

When 40 million Americans change their relationship with food through pharmaceutical means, we're not talking about a health trend. We're talking about structural reconfiguration of multiple value chains simultaneously. What the market hasn't priced about the GLP-1 phenomenon:

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

6/ For the Brazilian investor: the indirect impact on agribusiness deserves attention. Structural reduction in American ultraprocessed consumption pressures demand for corn for HFCS, sugar, and vegetable oils ,supply chains Brazil serves. Ultraprocessed consumption indicators in the US could become a leading indicator for agricultural commodities.

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

15 million Americans already use GLP-1. By 2030, it could be 40 million. The market looks at Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. The real signal is in ingredient suppliers, CDMOs and health tech that haven't priced this volume yet. Picks-and-shovels, not the gold rush.

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

@opapoeconomico Recomendo darem uma olhada em Semax e Selank ...

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

@eusouomatt Alguém notou no Claude que após estes resets você da continuidade e tem queimado muito mais tokens que normalmente seriam antes dessa disputa ?

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

@doclyndems @HormuzLetter @grok @grok How much will it cost?

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

@arena @Kimi_Moonshot @grok Compare the prices per entry and exit of tokens and subscriptions

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

The further we advance in estimating the economic impact of therapies such as GLP-1 and GLP-2, the clearer one challenge becomes: science is moving faster than the information infrastructure.

The evidence is scattered across scientific papers, investor presentations, regulatory filings, and pharmaceutical company publications each with its own structure, terminology, and context.

Transforming all of that into a consistent macroeconomic framework, segmented by country and industry, is far more difficult than it appears.

In the end, the bottleneck is no longer just modeling. It's knowledge consolidation. Understanding how the science is presented is becoming almost as complex as modeling its economic impact.

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

@ografista Em breve vão liberar uns acessos , eu te mando em DM sim .

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

4/ Additional fuel: the valuation premium of mega-caps reached historically elevated levels in 2024-2025.

Compressed valuations in the S&P 500. More attractive multiples in the Russell 2000. This difference creates the incentive for capital migration.

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

1/ Every generation of investors learns the same lesson, always too late: the asset that led the previous cycle rarely leads the next one.

The Russell 2000 outperforming the S&P 500 in 2026 is that signal. Thread:

[TheDB 🇨🇦 @BusDenys]

3/ Historically, small-caps outperform large-caps in the 12 to 24 months following the start of Fed rate-cutting cycles.

Why? Smaller companies are more leveraged, more sensitive to credit costs. Falling rates are oxygen for them.