Bo Zhang

Tech / Finance 📍NYC

Sharing my research / thoughts / trades / positions

NFA

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

@kevinxu You are so performative, like genuinely, what is the point of blurring out her name if you posted everything else about them where it is clear who it is. At least be bold instead of humble bragging

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

@bubbleboi Wait why would Kimi drop reduce demand for HBM? Short-term price movements in the market if no fundamentals have changed don't mean anything.

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

@lolsunz 😂

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

This comparison makes absolutely 0 sense, do not listen to @realWealthED.

If you put the same money in either S&P or $SPCX and it grew at 10% per year they would both give you ~$1.81 million in 40 years. The thing is $SPCX is most likely to grow much more than 10% per year, but during down turns it will also dip much lower than S&P.

Plenty of tech companies have more than 1000X in less time in 20 years (Almost all MAG 7 companies). $79 trillion market cap in 40 years is only ~52X. Why would $79 trillion market cap in 40 years not make sense if the current valuation is ~$1.5 trillion?

$SPCX is a riskier venture, but has the potential to grow much faster than S&P if you can take the downswings and believe in the company (pretty much just invest and don't look until you need to).

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

@SPCX100T I believe this is true as well. Over 50% of in total volume today was off-exchange & dark pools (and that is an underestimate as some of the data hasn’t been aggregated) https://t.co/OfcgWzNmiY

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

This is why $SPCX stock did not gap down on unlock day, and why this is bullish.

Hint: It's not because there weren't that many sellers

I made a post about this below

https://t.co/RN7CNtSiIO

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

I have a sneaky suspicion, a conspiracy theory if you will on why $SPCX did not gap down on unlock day

To be clear, no one knows what is really happening with $SPCX stock or prices under the hood, not me, not you, not anyone on wall street.

The reason way price did not go down is due to one or both of the following:

1.) There weren't that many sellers after the unlock...

2.) There were a lot of sellers... BUT, if in actuality there were a lot of sellers, and price did not move down on significant volume (Today's volume was ~3-4X more volume than the average volume of last 20 days). Then something else is going on...

I believe that institutions that wanted to get in on SpaceX cannot really buy SpaceX before today due to the low volume of shares. These same institutions want to get in as low in price as possible.

If institutions wanted to purchase or accumulate SpaceX before today, doing so without driving prices up would be almost impossible, and difficult to do quietly due to the low float of volume. It's possible institutions used today as an opportunity to absorb a lot of volume. I've always kind of suspected this based on odd price movements over the last few days, but when I saw the price movement this morning I had more conviction.

Both scenarios in my opinion are bullish.

That's why today I made a large purchase of $SPCX stock, especially since I am ok to hold this stock for 5+ years, maybe sell some covered calls to protect my downside, but not too concerned if price gaps down a bit more from this point.

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

I have a sneaky suspicion, a conspiracy theory if you will on why $SPCX did not gap down on unlock day

To be clear, no one knows what is really happening with $SPCX stock or prices under the hood, not me, not you, not anyone on wall street.

The reason way price did not go down is due to one or both of the following:

1.) There weren't that many sellers after the unlock...

2.) There were a lot of sellers... BUT, if in actuality there were a lot of sellers, and price did not move down on significant volume (Today's volume was ~3-4X more volume than the average volume of last 20 days). Then something else is going on...

I believe that institutions that wanted to get in on SpaceX cannot really buy SpaceX before today due to the low volume of shares. These same institutions want to get in as low in price as possible.

If institutions wanted to purchase or accumulate SpaceX before today, doing so without driving prices up would be almost impossible, and difficult to do quietly due to the low float of volume. It's possible institutions used today as an opportunity to absorb a lot of volume. I've always kind of suspected this based on odd price movements over the last few days, but when I saw the price movement this morning I had more conviction.

Both scenarios in my opinion are bullish.

That's why today I made a large purchase of $SPCX stock, especially since I am ok to hold this stock for 5+ years, maybe sell some covered calls to protect my downside, but not too concerned if price gaps down a bit more from this point.

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

@optionstraps Good thing I didn't listen and stayed in eh

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

Finally unloaded my cash and bought the fear Thursday morning in my prior post as prices were approaching my DCF valuation ranges for certain tickers. I only buy stocks that I have conviction in, this is my AI & Space port. $RKLB $BE $TER $AAOI $SPCX $CBRS

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

@RJCcapital Wait I thought it was a rumour, I don't see any confirmation that he shorted $NBIS

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

@sweatystartup Unless you have a position against this company or a position for this company, your words mean nothing, there is no conviction.

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

@RJCcapital (asian) 😂😩

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

@liorsela Michael Burry never shorted $PLTR, he bought deep OTM PUTs a long time ago when $PTLR was trading around $200. He has since closed at least half or most his position at a massive profit.

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

$SPCX is now undervalued based on the earnings report.

The earnings report was amazing, beat expectations out of the park. That is not why they are undervalued.

They have grown 92% YoY so far, the negative operating income on the space business has been cut in half (-542 million now). The AI business is also surprisingly positive on adjusted EBITDA.

I projected SpaceX to be earning $75billion in ARR by end of 2026, which they are already on path to beat easily. On the earnings call they just said that the base case is $100 billion in ARR by 2026 and potentially more.

What investors did not like, and why I think the Stock took a hit AH is because... they plan on almost doubling CapEx (~$19 billion) on AI infrastructure since their commitment of (~$10 billion) in Q1. That is a significant investment that may or may not see returns. However this is exactly what every hyper scaler is doing and needs to do. $GOOG is also FCF negative for the first time since IPO due to CapEx spend.

This earnings report made me more bullish on the company as my models I broke down in a prior post valued SPCX at around $100 fair price. However my models used an assumed $75 billion in ARR, however if they are projected to be earning a base case of $100 billon by end of 2026 maybe more my model currently has them at a fair price of $139.57.

With the numbers that came out of this earnings my model now shows SPCX is very attractive right now and will grow significantly this year if they keep performing at this level.

NFA, and do your own research, but that is my view based on the numbers. If you believe the Space industry will grow, and if you believe the AI (especially Neocloud) business will grow than SpaceX will grow.

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

@commonsenseplay They committed to almost double the CapEx from Q1. That's a significant increase.

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

I think 10x revenue in 4 years is highly improbable. But not a 0

SpaceX current CapEx almost doubled since Q1 to build out AI, like every other hyper scaler.

Starship projected to be usable in 2028 (whether that happens is speculation).

Yes tonnes of unknowns, we’ll see what happens.

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

Curious to hear why you think there's a 0 percent chance? I doubt it'll happen too, but I believe it's like 5% possible it can happen.

SPCX is projected to be $100 billion in ARR by end of this year (2026). To reach 1 trillion by 2030 (Elon said 2030 not 2029) they would need to grow ~75% Revenue YoY. In 2026 the expected Revenue Growth is around ~100 Growth YoY. They are already on track to meet this.

With Starship coming out in 2028 / Space sector growing at record pace / AI sector growing at a record pace, it's not entirely impossible is it?

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

He said by 2030, which is still insane, but not out of the question.

SPCX is projected to be $100 billion in ARR by end of this year (2026). To reach 1 trillion they would need to grow ~75 Revenue YoY. In 2026 the expected Revenue Growth is around ~100 Growth YoY. They are already on track to meet this.

[Bo Zhang @bzhang90]

@RJCcapital He closed most of his PLTR PUT positions at a huge profit already. Don't think he's too upset about this one.