Caldy

TSLA Investor from Singapore.

[Caldy @caldytron]

@tembelvitesi Thanks for your insights!

[Caldy @caldytron]

@JohnDoeKnowsGuy im rekt-ed too D:

[Rose Celine Investments 🌹 @realroseceline]

Thoughts on $MELI

The past year proved that $MELI’s ecosystem is stronger than ever. Customer satisfaction hit record highs across Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina. Revenue grew 45% in Q4 and 39% for the full year. Operating income grew 22% even while they invested aggressively. Very impressive they can remain so profitable even while pedal to the metal investing in growth.

Ecommerce penetration in Latin America is roughly half of the US, UK, and China. They see no reason that gap cannot close significantly. With 121 million unique active buyers, the network effect keeps strengthening as more buyers attract more sellers.

Free shipping continues to drive massive growth. In Brazil, lowering the free shipping threshold to $19 accelerated buyer growth, frequency, and retention. GMV in Brazil grew 35% in Q4, sold items grew 45%, and unique buyers grew 26%. Even now, fewer than one third of Brazilians purchased from $MELI. Mexico and Argentina were also strong, both posting 35%+ GMV growth, with Chile, Colombia, and Peru growing even faster.

Logistics is a major competitive advantage. The network handled 41% more volume in 2025, nearly 500m additional shipments. Shipping costs fell 11% in Brazil in Q4, so scale is driving efficiency. This is somewhat hidden in their report and not emphasized “loudly”, but in my humble opinion speaks volumes to their execution. Cross border trade accelerated 74%, and they opened their first fulfillment center in China to support the so called “China LatAm corridor”.

Advertising is scaling quickly, up 67% in Q4 ($AMZN who?). AI is being embedded across search, personalization, seller tools, etc. Ads is going to be a monster business for $MELI due to its amazing economics. They are investing heavily across logistics, free shipping, cross border, loyalty, ads, and AI, while still growing revenue near 40%. Momentum is strong and the opportunity remains very large.

Fintech is becoming a core pillar. Pago is targeting millions who remain underbanked. Deposits scaled from $2b to nearly $19b in three years. Monthly active users more than doubled to 78m. Credit grew 90% in Q4 to $12.5b and is up more than 4x in 3 years. Spreads remain strong with NIMAL at 23.3%. The credit portfolio is their biggest risk, but also an enormous opportunity.

On consolidated financials, revenue grew 45% in Q4 to nearly $8.8b. Operating income was $889m including tax credits. Free cash flow was $763m in Q4. Full year investment was large, with $1.3b in capex and $6.5b deployed into credit. Management estimates a 5–6 point margin impact from strategic initiatives and views this as temporary pressure to expand the moat.

The message is clear. They are intentionally compressing margins in the short term to expand scale, engagement, and ecosystem dominance. The opportunity ahead remains enormous, and I personally couldn’t agree more.

🌹

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang:

'My only regret was selling $NVDA stock when the market cap was $300M to buy my parents a Mercedes S-Class. It’s the most expensive car in the world now.' 😂

[HUMBLED @vijay9933]

I contacted @Shift4 IR . @michaeljburry dishonestly published negative article on $FOUR . Here is my rebuttal after talking to IR .
They were very surprised that Michael did not bothered to contact IR before accusing them of shady practice. Strong words borderline illegal IMO.

[Caldy @caldytron]

@Trader_Joe44 @SayNoToTrading u got it today, are you adding?

[Grau Raset @rasetgrauu]

$TMDX

After spending the entire morning doing calculations and formulas worthy of Stanford to try to predict tomorrow's Q2 revenue, even though it's useless because whether I'm right or wrong, I may end up sleeping under a bridge tomorrow, my final estimates are as follows:

[equityXplorer @_equityXplorer]

$TMDX

Flights remain relatively unchanged for the week as they continue trending towards ~690 for July.

As for $BLDE, their flights are relatively flat MoM. Given both $TMDX and OrganOx use $BLDE, it is clear OrganOx is not taking any material market share at this point. I guess we will have to continue to wait on the “rapid market share erosion” @ScorpionFund alluded to. Maybe next month.

It is my personal opinion that none of this softness has to do with maintenance. This is seasonality to me. Pictured below are comments for the Q1 call. Waleed clearly states that seasonality would show up in Q2 or Q3. There may have been some seasonality that started to show towards the end of Q2 as flights started flattening and it is now showing more prominently at the beginning of Q3.

I believe the maintained will begin to show more so towards the end of Q3 as it begins “ramping” and then it will begin much more prominent in Q4.

Waleed laid this all out in his comments. I am not a plane technician by any means, but I wouldn’t service my car early just because I was driving less. I would wait until I hit the recommended miles or time. Similarly, I believe they would not service planes ahead of schedule during a slow seasonal period as that will likely just move up the time to the next service, increasing the cost by accelerating the schedule.

I see some posts that seem to confuse or correlate the two. It is confusing as they are seeming to happen in similar windows, but these items are not correlated in my mind. I think we are seeing one now and the other to come later based on the comments that were made.

[Manthan Bhadiyadra @ManthanTweets1]

$TMDX
Couple of points from today's developments.
1 - HHS had investigation done on some OPOs in first 2 months of 2025 and report was sent on may 28th.
2- Investigation found some bad practices on OPOs and corrective 30 day and 180 day plan was sent.
(1/n)

[Caldy @caldytron]

@ScorpionFund Have you covered your shorts?

[Manthan Bhadiyadra @ManthanTweets1]

$TMDX JUST REPORTED EARNINGS!!!
*Q1 REVENUE $143.5M, EST. $123.39M (HUGE BEAT ✅)
*Q1 EPS 0.700, EST 0.241 (HUGE BEAT ✅)
RAISES 2025 FULL YEAR GUIDE to $ 565M-$585M FROM $520M-$552M (HUGE RAISE✅)
Thank you Waleed. Thank you TransMedics.
This victory feels so personal!!

[Caldy @caldytron]

@jb_equities should be now, not tomorrow.

[Caldy @caldytron]

@BlackCatsCap numberrs not out yet right?

[Caldy @caldytron]

@Elon_fanboy77 @JasonZhu1384504 @HolySmokas hopefully it'll be Always Make Dollars for you bruh

[Caldy @caldytron]

@Elon_fanboy77 @JasonZhu1384504 @HolySmokas Respect your conviction in the company 👏

[Caldy @caldytron]

@Elon_fanboy77 @JasonZhu1384504 @HolySmokas did you load up more AMD? @Elon_fanboy77

[Caldy @caldytron]

@jb_equities new CFO guided for a slightly lower 2025 guidance compared to ex-CFO.

[Money Discourse @moneydiscourse]

$TMDX guides FY25 Rev +20-25% over midpoint of FY24 guide (implies $516-537.5M vs FS $540.6M)
Investor day

[Caldy @caldytron]

@Elon_fanboy77 @JasonZhu1384504 @HolySmokas 🔥🔥🔥

[Caldy @caldytron]

@Elon_fanboy77 @JasonZhu1384504 @HolySmokas damn son what % of AMD is your portfolio?