$CRWV is the most interesting stock to watch right now.
The Revenue-ramp is looking absolutely insane:
2027 Revenue will be around $25B
Meanwhile the company is only valued at $53B right now.
The valuation gap is absolutely insane when compared to $NBIS.
There is just no reason for it to have a lower MC.
- Trading at less than half the Fwd EV/EBITDA
- Will do 2.5x more revenue in 2027
This will go down as a generational entry.
For anyone confused, the lead driver of this correction is simple:
Big Tech sees so much opportunity ahead that it’s willing to take on unprecedented leverage to capture it.
You either believe their conviction or you don’t.
Just modelled $CRWV earnings through 2030 based on +5GW active capacity target.
It gets gradually derisked as interest expense declines from almost 25% of revenue this year to below 7% in 2030.
In 2030, Debt/EBT ratio declines below 9, which is still high but manageable.
So, if the backlog converts, there is nothing that justifies its discount relative to $NBIS. If AI capex slows down and backlogs don’t convert, nothing is saving $NBIS as well.
Customer concentration argument is also irrelevant because bulk of projected $NBIS revenues are also from just two companies, $MSFT and $META.
In short, $CRWV being valued less than $NBIS is just ridiculous.
A year from now people will look back and say $CRWV was an obvious opportunity.
TAM math is my favorite kind of math.
1 million humanoids at $50k each = a $50B industry.
10 million humanoids at $50k each = a $500B industry.
That’s roughly the scale of operating profit SK Hynix and Samsung are expected to generate this year.
The next massive thematic trade is coming.
And it’s probably going to look obvious only in hindsight.
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