speakthetruth

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[speakthetruth @callthetruth98]

@ALex28943 Qqq is no difference to smh now lol

[Beth Kindig @Beth_Kindig]

Micron on memory supply: “Even as we expect industry supply to improve gradually in 2028, we currently do not have line of sight as to when memory supply will be able to catch up with increasing demand."

$MU $AMD $NVDA $AVGO

[Nicholas J. Stelzner @stelzner_n1150]

If Iran wanted to gain leverage, all they have to do is strike Sunday night to fuck up Trump's precious stock market. I'm surprised they haven't played that card yet. Unless, they're all in on it together...

[speakthetruth @callthetruth98]

@stelzner_n1150 Together

[emini tic @TicTocTick]

Micron and apple ceo have gone to war over memory chips.

Micron guy is saying Apple was buying ram for 5 dollars for decades and now we raised prices to $50.

This is still far less than $200 minimum price increase announced by Tim.

I blame Tim in this fiasco.

If he waits this out, I guarantee market will be flooded with ram by end of the year.

Increasing prices now will hurt Apple more than micron.

[勃勃OC @bboczeng]

一篇揭露苹果是一家真正无良企业的帖子在韩国论坛被发了出来。

从帖子内容来看，苹果让供应商相互竞争，以此压低价格。

在这个过程中，有人怀疑苹果把三星和 LG 的技术泄露给了中国。

帖子指出，苹果为了更换代工厂，把本土技术交给了中国。

过去，在美光陷入亏损困境时，苹果曾强势压价，逼迫美光降价。

而当美光靠超预期财报试图恢复元气时，苹果却在第二天就立刻涨价。

而且苹果的涨价幅度远远超过半导体价格的上涨

这篇帖子还解释了为什么半导体市场最后只剩下三星电子、SK 海力士和美光。

像苹果这样的大型科技公司，通过霸凌式采购和放鸽子，把其他竞争者都毁掉了。

帖子甚至声称，AirPods 的制造成本只有 5 万韩元，但苹果却从中赚取了巨额利润率。

[Upamanyu Acharya @upamanyuacharya]

Apple spent a decade squeezing memory makers below cost. One of them survived, finally got pricing power, and Apple is calling it "gouging."

2 years ago $MU was selling DRAM below the cost of making it, gross margins underwater, in the kind of bust that has killed memory makers for 30 years. A field that once had dozens of players consolidated down to three survivors. Micron is here because it executed the downturns better than the ones that died, not because anyone was generous to it.

The buyers now screaming about 84.9% margins, Apple and the hyperscalers, are the exact players who spent that decade grinding memory to negative margins on every procurement cycle. Micron's own commercial chief said it out loud this week: blame the years of cheap procurement that made suppliers stop building capacity.

So this is not gouging and it is not collusion. It is the bill for a decade of underinvestment, and that underinvestment was a pricing failure. The actual service a speculator sells is marking a price close to intrinsic value, so capital flows to where it is needed. Analysts nailed Nvidia early; money poured in and supply got funded. They modelled memory as a commodity cycle right up until margins hit software levels. No accurate price meant no capital, no capital meant no capacity, and the squeeze now is the market collecting on its own mistake.

Memory stopped being a commodity the day LLMs took off. Compute happens in bursts and spreads across infrastructure; memory is the perpetual state the whole stack sits on. Chatbots to agents to real-time multimodal to robotics, every step up is built on more memory, not less.

If memory output 1000x's from here, the demand is already waiting to fill it. The supply glut everyone keeps pricing in is not coming back. This is the largest mispricing of an entire sector in the history of capitalism, and the gouging story is just the part where the market refuses to admit it was wrong.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

$MSFT

Highest daily volume since Sept 2014.

Highest weekly volume since Mar 2020.

Will likely have the highest monthly volume since Mar 2020.

Both times pretty much marked THE bottom in the stock.

Extrapolate how you see fit.

[Annie 所长 @web3annie]

内存超级周期估计也就这两年了。

三星、海力士、美光都在建厂，3年后产能就提上来，合肥的长鑫存储，政府刚又批7100亩地给他们，到27年底，基本中国卷的就够全世界用。

内存、HBM从此不再稀缺 → 竞争激烈 → 价格下跌 → 牛没！

牛市截止时间明年6月，大户还得提前半年跑，那就看今年年底了 😂

[Musolsol.𝟎𝐱𝐔 @MMMusol]

现在主线其实相对明晰了

第一层，超级云巨头把钱给英伟达。

微软、Meta、亚马逊、谷歌为了建设AI数据中心，大规模采购GPU、整机、网络和AI系统。

于是英伟达先拿走最大的收入增量和利润弹性，这也是过去两年AI牛市最核心的定价逻辑。

第二层，英伟达的增长把存储推成新瓶颈。

GPU卖得越多，AI服务器越多，对HBM、高端DRAM、NAND、先进封装的需求就越大。

这个时候，利润池开始从“算力芯片”扩散到“存储供应”。

美光 $MU 、海力士、三星不是因为单纯周期复苏上涨，而是因为它们变成AI工厂不可缺的一环。

第三层，存储厂赚到钱之后，要继续扩产。

美光、海力士、三星要满足AI客户的长期订单，就必须增加资本开支，建厂、买设备、做先进封装、提高良率。于是新的订单开始流向
$AMAT、 $LRCX 、 $KLAC、
ASML这些设备公司，以及上游材料、零部件、厂务工程公司。

利润的迁移不是一夜完成的，而是一层一层沿着产业链传导的。

第一阶段，超级云厂商的资本开支流向英伟达，GPU成为AI牛市的第一估值锚

第二阶段，英伟达交付更多AI系统，HBM和高端存储被推成新瓶颈，美光、海力士、三星开始接住利润弹性

第三阶段，存储厂为了锁住未来订单，被迫加大资本开支，设备和材料公司又站到下一轮订单流的入口。

换而言之，
资金先买最显眼的龙头，
再买被龙头拉紧的瓶颈，
最后买瓶颈扩产背后的铲子。

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$AAPL is reportedly seeking U.S. clearance to buy memory from China’s CXMT (Pentagon-blacklisted DRAM supplier) as AI-driven shortages push memory costs higher.

Really important to call out that CXMT is mostly trailing-node commodity DRAM (not leading-edge HBM) so even if Apple gets approval, it doesn't solve the high-bandwidth memory shortage driving the AI server margin pool.

I also do think that Apple losing hundreds of billions in market value on a 15-20% pricing announcement and then lobbying for a politically sensitive supplier tells you the input-cost shock is real even for the most defensible consumer hardware franchise in the world.

For $MU, Samsung and SK Hynix, HBM is what the bull case rests on scarce and locked under contract but commodity DRAM is where a state-backed CXMT eventually bites and thats the only part of the thesis Apple's move actually threatens.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Done and done

Apple Seeks US Clearance to Buy Memory Chips From CXMT: FT

Memory limit down Monday

[bei chen @beichen01]

@Boqll5Tppdalvtw 挺幽默的是，别家手机涨没人会说。觉得内存上涨带来价格上涨理所应当，但这事放苹果身上就不行，涨就有人喷，问题是，到时侯九月份苹果新品发售一样是全球销量第一，整的像小丑一样，让人忍俊不禁

[Trade Whisperer @TradexWhisperer]

$MU You know what's the craziest thing about Micron right now?

Micron is about to out-earn every single Mag 6 name next quarter.

[John @market_sleuth]

If you’re looking for a long setup for call leaps or commons after this quarter end malaise wraps up the three strongest stocks of the MAG7 (daily chart) in order are as follows:

GOOG
AAPL
NVDA

All the rest are below their 200 DMA. No thanks. I’m going with GOOG.

[美股仙人 @hanking66]

DRAM更新持仓了，变动很大。增加了A股的一些

三星、海力士、美光重新站回 25%
三星从不到 20% 一口气升到第一梯队
Kioxia 被砍了一刀，从 8% 降到 4.5%

新增了兆易创新｜权重 2%。群联 0.68%。旺宏 0.4%

关注dram的可以感受一下。
Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

[speakthetruth @callthetruth98]

@Mr_Derivatives It’s been doing this again and again…

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

HSBC RAISES MICRON TECHNOLOGY TARGET PRICE TO $1700 FROM $1100

[amit @amitisinvesting]

Long post, but some thoughts on what happened in the market today…

Today was a particularly weird storm of price action because the logic going into the open was as follows:

- $MU crushed, saved the AI trade

- AI stocks should go higher due to MU proving its not cyclical, this should help the broader market get a lift

Instead, what we got right before the open…

- $AAPL announces massive price hikes and effectively uses MU earnings to be like, “See! It’s not us, but if memory gets 86% margins, then we have to raise prices!”

- This happens right after the hottest PCE in 3 years is reported, even with oil (the biggest proponent of inflation the past few months) still coming down

- Microsoft then joins the party and raises prices across all XBOX products, once again citing memory costs

Market then proceeds to take a nasty dip in every sector…except Memory.

I think what is happening here will be studied for a long time. The hyperscalers, the companies that are RESPONSIBLE for $MU and $SNDK being multibaggers, are getting destroyed because…well they can’t buy back stock, they can’t get FCF positive, and they don’t have memory’s pricing power.

In fact, this is what Melius Research came out today and said:

“Why bother owning a hyperscaler who can't buy back stock any time soon? Micron can start buying over $25B/quarter in stock during CY27. Memory will go down as THE BOTTLENECK of ALL BOTTLENECKS for this AI era. MU said that current conditions last after calendar 2027, basically guaranteeing buybacks of epic proportions, especially next calendar year.”

We are at the point where the sell-side is saying that owning the best companies in the world makes no sense when you can own the bottleneck of all bottlenecks.

Here’s the thing: I don’t know if Melius is actually wrong.

My gut tells me that 86% gross margins will not last forever, but as long as the hyperscalers are willing to pay, then the structural logic for market participants comes down to a simple question: why own the companies paying the capex over the companies benefiting from it?

The problem is obvious: if memory inflation continues to be intense, it will affect every part of the market. From automotive to datacenters to PCs. $NVDA gets to have a tax because it’s building very IP-heavy products. Will the market allow something like memory, that is not IP-heavy, to force consumers globally to pay significantly more for the products? Also, do the memory makers even care because as long as they control supply, they can control pricing?

I’d imagine the big tech companies either lower capex to stop paying the cost, keep paying the cost, or try to innovate. They likely won’t lower capex and will most likely continue paying the cost, so there probably are some elements of them trying to focus on innovating in this area…but if there won’t be any menaingful cutoff in capex, the memory story continues.

The market fell today because higher inflation means more of a chance for rate hikes. I mean, NVDA went below 200 as MU hit all time highs. NVDA’s suppliers are more valuable than NVDA’s biggest customers. As a result, it’s creating a type of AI-flation that basically led the market to sell off everything else.

Not sure how this plays out, retail continues to buy the dip and today’s red probably gets bought…especially as earnings continue to grow…but we are in a new paradigm for how this market gives a premium to a stock and if you have pricing power over a component that matters to build AI vs being a companies that actually uses AI, you get a premium.

[speakthetruth @callthetruth98]

@Mr_Derivatives This whole up down $100 thing mu does twice a day. Lol us market then Korean market time …