Chris Cameron-Hann

Flood hydrologist. CTO, Aegaea & 7analytics. Building UK/US flood risk, models, maps. Occasional international consultant to IDFs

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

https://t.co/CMDRIWRk6W

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

@peacockreports @peacockreports i've just stood this up, which could be interesting in what happens between projected rain and river response

https://t.co/InDai3xqIH

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

https://t.co/InDai3xqIH

get predictions of flood flow likelihood over the next 72 hours. no modelling, no wait...just predictions registered before they happen

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

A storm hit the Midlands yesterday. A model that had never seen the River Tame — or any river data since 2019 — said the peak would be 28 m³/s, somewhere between 18 and 46.

The gauge said 27.

Rain, soil, 622,000 old storms, and how wet the ground was. That's the whole method.

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

@TorCastAi https://t.co/gZ3GNA6LlN

More to come and the forecast is doing it's job

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

Yesterday's summer storm dropped 50 mm or rainfall on the West Midlands. Our flood model had never seen these rivers, or any data after 2019.

Tame at Bescot: predicted peak 28 m³/s (range 18–46). Gauge recorded 27.

No rating curve, no calibration, no FEH. Open rainfall and soils, 622,000 past storms, and how wet the ground was.

Same method beat the national standard on 78% of 69 rivers it had never seen.

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

@FloodHubPeople Looks like more to come!

https://t.co/gZ3GNA6LlN

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

Yesterday's summer storm dropped 50 mm or rainfall on the West Midlands. Our flood model had never seen these rivers, or any data after 2019.

Tame at Bescot: predicted peak 28 m³/s (range 18–46). Gauge recorded 27.

No rating curve, no calibration, no FEH. Open rainfall and soils, 622,000 past storms, and how wet the ground was.

Same method beat the national standard on 78% of 69 rivers it had never seen.

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

@UK_NRFA hiflows15 out today. Favourite weekend of the year.

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

Yesterday's summer storm dropped 50 mm or rainfall on the West Midlands. Our flood model had never seen these rivers, or any data after 2019.

Tame at Bescot: predicted peak 28 m³/s (range 18–46). Gauge recorded 27.

No rating curve, no calibration, no FEH. Open rainfall and soils, 622,000 past storms, and how wet the ground was.

Same method beat the national standard on 78% of 69 rivers it had never seen.

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

@semhustej @HakanSeven8125 Thanks @semhustej and @HakanSeven8125 ! I've been looking for something that I can play with. Will have a dig!

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

Just looking at this 4 years later as a team of 35 is quite funny

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

Aegaea have grown rapidly since our last tweet. Now a team of 7, and soon to be a team of 10. How can we help #unlockdevelopment for you?

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

Almost makes me want to go back to my desk and check it out!

[Google Research @GoogleResearch]

Introducing the planetary prediction engine: An experimental research capability that automates global geospatial modeling workflows. From predicting public health outcomes to improving food security, we are simplifying planetary-scale analytics. Learn more: https://t.co/EGhcEMqZxX

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

Part of me starting to use x now is to get comfortable talking about my work and what I do. It is something of a personal development mission.

The other part is that I'm about to get outed as the author of a very powerful flood model and I can't escape it for much longer 😂

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

the future of uk hydrology is not statistical estimation, i think this proves it https://t.co/xgQ1TzJaWn

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

@mieke2 thanks for this. it seems a causal chain of misfortune is indeed to blame here.

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

Devastated by the news from Nepal. I worked there 4 years ago looking at flood forecasting and flood prediction and to see this really hurts.

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

Today I’m going to be shipping hydrometric updates to the method space calculation and more importantly the first version of our new rainfall runoff model with probability banded flows based on catchment shape and description.

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

I'll be travelling to leeds for the British Hydrological Symposium next week. looking forward to talking about UK hydrology, climate change and open data as it contributes to improved flow prediction!

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

if reports of a landslide triggering an earthquake triggering a flood are true then I don't know how you string that together to give people sufficient reaction time

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

This is an urgent transboundary problem. CMA/INSAT ingestion and support from CMA is vital. Nepal does not have the technology to warn of these events.

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

@jagan_chapagain @IFRC_DREF Very sad to see this. Urgent assistance from CMA is needed and transboundary coopoeration between China via Tibet and Nepal is required. Seismic sensors and a real warning netwrok is no longer optional.

[Chris Cameron-Hann @camerhann]

for flooding like this any rainfall triggers are meaningless - 50mm in 24hrs is not a trigger. With a hydrograph at 9m in 30 minutes Nepal needs a different warning modality