Canary Trap

Canary Trap is a platform for investigative and in-depth information related to security, intelligence, politics, media, history, and tech.

[Canary Trap @canarytrap]

The Last Bridge: An Assessment of India’s Strategic Posture on Iran — and the Civilisational Calculus Behind the Silence

The sinking of the #IRISDena is not merely a tactical event in the expanding #USIranWar. It is an analytical inflection point for understanding India’s posture on the entire crisis. The surface reading of India’s silence is betrayal — of a guest, of a historical relationship, of its own claim to Indian Ocean primacy. That reading is politically potent but analytically shallow. The deeper reading requires asking a different question. Not: why is India silent? But: what is India preserving its position for?

Read More: https://t.co/UcPObluAJb by @vk_shashikumar

@nitingokhale @Indus_Lens @centerofright @TheJaggi @SwarajyaMag

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

This is the Israeli perspective of what Indian interests are in #WestAsia. But these points can't be farther from the Indian perspective. Indian interests and Israeli interests in the region, though both countries enjoy very good bilat ties, are starkly different. Let's have a relook at each point.

1. Pakistan is not becoming a leader of the Global South at India's expense just because Pakistan brokered a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran after a failed U.S.-Israel war. India is well aware of Pakistan's capabilities and limitations. Pakistan had been the blue-eyed boy of the U.S. throughout the Cold War. And India dealt with it. It's true that Pakistan today is rebuilding its ties with the US and expanding its diplomatic footprint in West Asia. That space for Pakistan was opened not by the deal trump is reaching with Iran but by the war Israel and the U.S. launched in India's neighbourhood. And that space will be paid close attention in New Delhi.

2. If the deal allows Iran to dominate the Strait of Hormuz, that means the war Israel and the US launched had been a total failure. India has historically enjoyed good bilat ties with Iran. Iran's ballistic missiles or a growing Iranian economy do not pose any threat to India. India has also invested millions in Iran. Iran offers a route to India to Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan; Iran is also a critical link in the North-South Transport Corridor which gives India an alternative route to connect with Europe bypassing the Suez Canal. India looks at IMEC as an important connectivity project, as well. But the missing piece in IMEC is the absence of an Israel-Saudi normalisation. If Israel is ready to settle the Palestine question politically and normalise ties with the Arab world, it would open great opportunities for India's regional engagement.

3. Millions of Indians have been living in the Persian Gulf countries for decades. The first wave of migration started in the 1960s, in the early stage of the oil boom, well before the revolution in Iran. They had never been threatened by Iranian missiles before this war. For the safety of millions of Indians in the Gulf and for remittances to continue to flow to India, what India wants is stability and economic progress in the region. In other words, Israel bringing its wars to the Persian Gulf is a direct threat to India's economic and energy security and the safety of millions of Indians living in the region. India sees itself as one of the pillars of the emerging order; so it's imperative for India to continue to grow economically, and tackle the disturbances that challenge this growth trajectory.

4. India clearly doesn't want another nuclear power in its neighbourhood. But it wants the nuclear question to be resolved diplomatically, not through unwise, less thought-out wars that hurt everyone. Israel wants regime change in Tehran, India doesn't. From an Indian perspective, the JCPOA addressed the nuclear question and Iranian facilities were open for international inspection. It was trump 1.0 that sabotaged the JCPOA, and it was Israel that recklessly, non-strategically took the war directly to Iran, exactly a year ago, after which Iran cut off the IAEA access to its nuclear programme.

So yes, India wants stability in West Asia. And for long-term stability, the Palestine question should be politically addressed; unending wars in the region should be stopped; Iran's nuclear programme should be addressed diplomatically and sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries in the region should be respected.

[Kushan Mitra @kushanmitra]

Finally

[Shekhar Gupta @ShekharGupta]

Ghar ka bhedi Lanka dhaaye….

Tulsi Gabbard says US funds 120 ‘biolabs’ in 30 countries. What are they?

Akanksha Mishra @Akanksha_mish27 reports

#ThePrintFeature

https://t.co/mVbKnia1rQ

[The Kaipullai @thekaipullai]

In the 60s, When we didn't have food to eat, we created an independent body called ICAR as an agent of change, put agri experts in charge, facilitated awesome collaboration between local knowledge & international expertise, gave them complete freedom of action and eliminated the traditional Indian babudom

Result - We are the largest producer of food in the world

When we didn't have milk, we created an independent body called NDDB as an agent of change, put a hard driving Dr Kurien in charge, gave him complete freedom and eliminated the traditional Indian babudom

Result - We are the largest milk producer in the world

When we found we were lagging in digital payments, we created an independent body called Npci as an agent of change, put bankers and industry experts in charge and eliminated the traditional Indian babudom

Result - We have one of the largest and most used digital payment ecosystem in the world

Today we are afraid we will lose the battle on AI and Technology

We have a solution which has worked very well in the past and has saved us from many a crisis.

The only question is, Do we have the will to implement it?

[Nitin A. Gokhale @nitingokhale]

Ultimately Qatar had to step in to retrieve the situation. Pakistan just didn't have the heft or credibility that would bring both sides close to an understanding. And the understanding will be signed in Geneva, perhaps because the Europeans also intervened towards the end and promised something tangible to Iran(https://t.co/nht8OBlyNn).

Of course India will have to also introspect, reassess its West Asia and US policy.

[Opinion Bakery @IndiaSpeaksPR]

Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh seen here reassuring Rahul Gandhi that he has nothing to worry about Meenakshi Natarjan's RS election

[Nitin A. Gokhale @nitingokhale]

If details of the MoU between US and Iran as reported by Mehr news (see towards the end of the post) are true, then it is clear US has lost the war.

However, one can surmise how the understanding will be viewed differently by different countries.

1. Iran: Despite being economically weakened, its military strength degraded considerably, Tehran emerges a winner for surviving the twin onslaught from US and Israel and not conceding much. It has also gained reparations and unfreezing of its assets (figures vary). Also Hezbollah remains well entrenched in Lebanon.
2. US: President Donald Trump was desperate to end the war and cut his losses. In the end, he perhaps kept the rising gas prices and the upcoming mid-term elections in America in mind and accepted most of the Iranian demands. That he has lost face should not be in doubt.
3. Israel will live to fight another day but knives will be out for Netanyahu.
4. Qatar, not Pakistan, finally achieved the breakthrough.
5. India: Overwhelming sense of relief to begin with but in the medium term. New Delhi will have to reassess its West Asia policy, its relationship with US (more adversarial now than ever before) and diversify its energy sourcing.

Mehr News: The reported 14-point draft Iran–US memorandum :

Immediate and permanent ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon. US commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs. End of the naval blockade and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
US military withdrawal from areas surrounding Iran. Suspension of oil-related sanctions and restoration of Iran’s access to its revenues.
$300 billion in reconstruction plans/funding from the US and allies.

60 days of negotiations toward a final agreement focused on Iran’s nuclear program and broad sanctions relief.

Iran reaffirms it will not develop nuclear weapons under the NPT.

No new US troops or sanctions during negotiations. Release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the negotiation period.

[Aditya Raj Kaul @AdityaRajKaul]

PoK up in arms against Pakistan at midnight to seek freedom from the forced occupation of the Pakistan Army. Muslims of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir protesting against Pakistan.

[D Prasanth Nair @DPrasanthNair]

When our generation was in college, one of the most popular sportsperson - Steffi Graf !

Today is birthday of Stefanie Maria "Steffi" Graf (14th June 1969).

She was ranked world No. 1 for a record 377 weeks. She is the only tennis player, male or female, to have won each Grand Slam tournament at least four times.

[Vishnu Som @VishnuNDTV]

MEA press release on Modi-Macron talks: India-France agreed to intensify defence relationship "with focus on co-design, co-development and co-production of defence platforms and advanced technologies." FCAS anyone? 🤐
https://t.co/fEbcIyY9iL

[ANI @ANI]

#WATCH | On the Nobel laureate Abhijit Banerjee's statement that he does not have faith in Indian GDP numbers, India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), Dr V. Anantha Nageswaran, says, "... If I want the Indian economy to be bad and the statistics confirm it, then I am quiet. If the statistics don't confirm my belief or wish that the Indian economy is actually in a bad state, then the statistics are unreliable. I find this inconsistency difficult to accept."

Watch the full podcast at: https://t.co/FlmDTxTLoT

[Emmanuel Macron @EmmanuelMacron]

Nice!

[The Kaipullai @thekaipullai]

I think all retired Bereaucrats, especially the one whose name is similar to a 1700s German philiospher, should stay off social media and post their insights about improving the nation.

Where did all this knowledge and perspicacity go when you were actually in service?

[J Gopikrishnan @jgopikrishnan70]

Mamata’s TMC collapses; 20 Lok Sabha MPs join literally unknown Nationalist Citizenship Party, back BJP-led NDA https://t.co/grP4xhvS5d via @PGurus1

[Sidhant Sibal @sidhant]

India, France discuss small nuclear reactor says Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri. India invites French companies for investment in civil nuclear domain after Shanti law comes into force

[Sidhant Sibal @sidhant]

Breaking: India's UPI to be expanded at Paris Airport, Nice

[Aditya Raj Kaul @AdityaRajKaul]

Big Modi-Macron Hug in France.

[The Kaipullai @thekaipullai]

I was searching for some LED light for my house, the type of which is not available online.

I needed 4 pieces.

So I checked Alibaba yesterday, mailed some vendors in China, and I actually got quotations including shipping charges. They even mailed pictures of their products.

Parallely, I have been also looking up lighting shops in Mumbai, and called their Google listed numbers.

Not one has picked my call or bothered to return it.

How can we have ease of business and make India business friendly, when it is easier and faster for me to contact a vendor in Shenzen or Guangdong than someone in Sion or Ghatkopar?

There is no point in pointing fingers at China or some foreign country when the actual problem is within us.

[Shekhar Gupta @ShekharGupta]

Who’s fooled by this breathtaking hypocrisy, I wonder. BJP/RSS lost many to militancy and terror. BJP backed Op Bluestar. It’s known that Deoras’s RSS silently backed Rajiv Gandhi in Dec 1984 polls ‘in the national interest.’ This dangerously undermines mainstream forces in Sikh politics

[Sherbir Panag 🇮🇳 @Sherbir]

Every party that has wanted to make a mark in recent times in Punjab has followed this casual flirtation and trope, then realised it wasn’t necessary and rather irrelevant - which tells you how much they know about Punjab. But the damage is done, and the courageous choices of Punjabis who stood up against extremism and separatism that ought to be celebrated are not.