FermatCap

Investor & Underqualified Polymath
thoughts are my own, Not investment advice

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

eGrocery is likely winner-takes-most and $CART's large-basket flywheel gives it the right to win. I see a path to ~30% 3yr IRR

New Instacart $CART memo and model up on the Substack: https://t.co/hdrWdAP7RT

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

@dennisihong 2/ On the deathbed, memories are all we’ve really got. Revering end-of-life desires seems to assume that we gain greater clarity as we age, but this seems at odds with psychology and neurobiology. Even if we were "wiser," why let the last 5% of our lives shape the first 95%

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

@dennisihong 1/ A cynical take, but our priorities naturally change as we age. When our future is both so certain and so limited, it seems only natural to discount activities that were future-oriented priorities in favor of those that created memories…

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

2/ ...
3. Discreteness of the outcome set
4. Measurability of ROI
5. Limited regulation (i.e. low cost of failure)
6. Impersonality of the transaction

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

1/ This article provides a helpful mental model for thinking about an industry's vulnerability to AI disruption. Key indicators of potential disruption below:

1. Breadth of available data
2. Availability of clearly defined SOPs
3. (Continued below)...
https://t.co/e0cWH2YTqd

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

4/
- Excess Interest down, likely due to lower interest rates
- $WISE stopped breaking down rev between Biz & Personal; XB can be backed out, Biz rev was -1% QoQ vs -3% 4q L3Y average); Perhaps mgmt is trying to obfuscate businesses slowdown coming off two +LDD QoQ quarters

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

1/ Quick takes on $WIZEY earnings:

Overall solid quarter with continued user and balance growth but recent growth has weaker vol/user. $WISE seems to be trying to hide this by no longer disaggregating rev between biz and customers, but figures can be backed out.

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

3/
- XB rev +2% QoQ on a seasonally weak 4q (average of -2% in the L3Y)
- Active Customer count continues steady growth (+4% QoQ, +22% YoY) driven by +26% YoY Biz growth
- Customer Balances maintain +HSD QoQ growth, outpacing user growth

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

2/ The price paid should illuminate int'l CACs

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

1/ $CART's Instaleap acquisition seems both an int'l CAC lever and a defensive land-grab. There's much tech overlap, but acquiring grocer and user relationships facilitates int'l expansion. eGrocery is a density business, this acquisition provides density while boxing out rivals

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

@GilesCapital @cdnvaluestocks @HatedMoats @WealthyReadings @theintlinvestor @qualityequities @TPC608839840907 @CundillCapital @TacticzH @konichivalue Thanks for the shoutout

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

Interesting analysis of how wealth inequality is really power inequality, and is a constant tug of war between politicians and the wealthy

https://t.co/mBmFklDeya via @byrnehobart

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

@thebeautyofsaas Argumentation: The Art of Persuasion, by Raymond Nickerson

While intended as a treatise on argumentation, it's a great dissection of logic, thought, and fallacies

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

@colejaczko Swimmer's body illusion

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

Bezos labeled this as "a really big point that most people miss." Link below, ~20min mark

https://t.co/4nTYgUWizQ

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

Bezos in '02 (paraphrased): "It's one thing to take data and do backward looking data mining... but this doesn't help with feedback loops. Owning the data allows for experiments with results clear within hours"

Essentially, controlling data expedites learning curve progression

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

@haydendevs Ironically, I performed best in the semesters where I skipped most lectures; if you hold yourself accountable and actually study the material, your time can definitely be better spent than sitting in a class for 3-4hrs a day. Very person dependent, but It’s all opportunity cost

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

@orrdavid Well put, but I'd argue economists rarely intend to frame issues broadly, just like PoliSci's will argue against all off-shoring to maximize stability. Each is seeking to maximize a specific metric (i.e. productivity/stability), and should serve only as tools in decision making

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

Classic example of overmanaging to the proxy

[FermatCap @CapFermat]

Improving shortfall rates by shedding problematic clients is a phenomenal example of exploiting survivorship bias; EY should take responsibility for their shortfalls, and seek to improve their practices, rather than ignore complicated situations

https://t.co/gz72xBdstc