$VELO Q2 — the turnaround is starting to show in the numbers.
Revenue came in at $20.7M, +52% YoY, versus pre-earnings estimates around $13–14M — a huge beat.
The progression is worth watching:
Q4 2025: $9.4M revenue
Q1 2026: $13.8M, +48% YoY
Q2 2026: $20.7M, +52% YoY
Gross margin also improved from 17.2% in Q1 → 21.5% in Q2, while FY26 revenue guidance was raised from $60–70M to $65–75M.
But what interested me most was the earnings call.
Management indicated RPS could reach roughly 20–25% of revenue by YE26, while outlining a Livermore production-capacity ramp of approximately:
~40 printers YE26 → ~75–80 YE27 → ~100 by mid-2028.
Management also indicated that customer demand could support substantially more RPS capacity today, with the constraint being how quickly Velo can build and deploy machines.
That’s potentially a very different business from the old Velo3D.
The Street was already starting to see the opportunity before Q2: Needham $33, Craig-Hallum $20, Cantor $17, while consensus FY26 revenue before the results was around $65M.
The bear case remains real: dilution, cash burn and execution risk. Velo raised substantial capital this quarter and now has to prove it can convert RPS demand and Forge 1 capacity into profitable production.
But if the company executes the RPS roadmap, keeps 40–50%+ growth going and moves toward high utilization at Livermore, I think today’s ~$20M quarterly revenue will eventually look very small.
For me, the 10x thesis remains intact — and Q2 strengthened it.
Not Financial Advice
$VIX remains a big problem for stocks. The lower highs we've seen since December is now making a steeper uptrend suggesting we should be getting close to a resolution. The way this has been constructive on the way up still seems to point to a major spike coming
*NFA
Se ve así y es ordenable por:
-distancia a máximos recientes
-subida en los 6 últimos meses
-por volumen transacionado
Espero que os guste. Y si lo mejorais, compartidlo!!
Once every 3-4 years, the market presents a great opportunity to buy low and sell high.
Simplest method is using RSI: buy heavily when it drops to 40 and starts climbing, and book profits when it reaches 80.
$ETH/USD macro
I wish I would have taken CT more serious on that day and ellaborated my thoughts.
Trolling part: The arrow all the way down
Actual price action retest was a major key trendline retest after the H&S played out. This is not necessarily the typical neckline breakdown s/r flip before further continuation retest, but a level of consolidation.
Knowing that the market needs time here, we took profit on many onchain runners like $OPSEC 70x, $SMT 30x (added at lows again) and many more literally at the top.
That being said, macro trend in tact. This is imo the most likely outcome as long as ETH prints HL on higher TF. ETH to $9k
$DMTR on the daily chart.
Wave-(iii) should reach the $2.03 price level.
There is also some resistance around the $1.05 Fib level.
We need to do is step by step.
Secular Bull Market 2/3:
If you read my analysis for $SPX's monthly🔵chart posted at the end of 2023, I mentioned:
"A significant pullback is expected for 2024 when 5110 is reached, not before."
I always base my estimations in the technicals I have fine-tuned with study and extensive backtesting, anyway it is good to read that according to Bloomberg and BoFa, the secular bull market overlays favor SPX 5000+ in 2024.
Their analysis concludes:
"The overlay chart that lines up the secular bull market breakouts from 1950, 1980 and 2013 suggests that the SPX can spend much of 2024 north of 5000. This corroborates bullish pattern counts for the SPX near 5200 and 5600, respectively"
What do you think? The patterns are quite interesting.
$SPY $QQQ $SPX $NDX #Russell2000 #Nasdaq100 #SP500 $SPX $ES_F $NQ_F $TSLA #SmallCap $VIX
$SPY $SPX #SPY Even though the markets look a little over-extended in the very short term (1-2 weeks), this MACD backtest tells me we may be in for a massive upside move in the coming 1-2 years.