The flourishing of the multi-strat ("pod shop") is such an interesting phenomenon because it owes its success to the aggressive consolidation of traditional dealer / sell-side business, which was largely taken away from broker-dealers by legislation.
⚠️THERMONUCLEAR BAD—Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped. Epidemiologist estimate >60% of 🇨🇳 & 10% of Earth’s population likely infected over next 90 days. Deaths likely in the millions—plural. This is just the start—🧵
Here are some quick hits on what large institutions are saying about '23.
Morgan Stanley - Bear not over and SPX to go to 3,000-3,300
BAC - SPX to 3,000
DB - SPX down 25% in Q3
JPM - "retest the lows"
BMO - "possible to retest the cycle lows"
Ton of bad news priced in here imo.
2023 earnings growth for the S&P 500 is ~7.5%, which still seems too high. Our models suggest that earnings growth should contract modestly in 2023. The next trend in equity markets will likely be determined by earnings/growth. #macro#economics#investing#finance#stocks
JPMorgan: "while the news of the collapse of FTX is empowering crypto skeptics, we would point out that all of the recent collapses in the crypto ecosystem have been from centralized players and not from decentralized protocols."
Random:
Here are all instances of $SPY gaining 5% or more over 2 days while also finishing with negative trailing 10 and 20 day returns.
Some crazy dates in here.
"How could you have earned a 42% return yesterday from a AA-rated investment? Simple. At anytime between 8-11am all you had to do was buy 40yr Gilts before the BoE effectively restarted QE only days before QT was suppose to start:" DB's Jim Reid.