Jonathan Urlich

30 Year Veteran Global Macro Economic Forecaster.

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

#Breaking...30-YEAR YIELD HIGHEST SINCE JULY 13, 2007...

In this environment Bond Investors need a higher yield.

Some pressure on Stocks but the Market will look through this.

Definitely a Stock Pickers Market here. The AI of everything people...

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

An interesting post on AI adoption for financial analysis...

We are now well beyond data scraping summation analytics. We are now at warp speed bot run battle mode agentic AI...

Exciting times people.

[Brett Caughran @FundamentEdge]

A big pivot from Ken Griffin on AI:

“Number one is, in the last few months, there has been a step change in the productivity of the AI toolkit. It is profoundly more powerful than it was just nine months ago.

And for us at Citadel, that has allowed us to unleash a much broader array of use cases for AI. And it has been really interesting to watch, to be blunt, work that we would usually do with people with masters and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days.

These are not these are not mid-tier white collar jobs. These are like extraordinarily high skilled jobs being, I'm going to pick a word, automated by agentic AI. And I gotta tell you, I went home one Friday actually fairly depressed by this because you could just see how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society.

When you witness it in your own four walls, when you see work that used to be man years of work being done in days or weeks, it's like, wow, like that's the first time I've seen real impact in our four walls.”

This echoes my own experience with agents and the conversations I am having with students, friends & clients. The toolkit has dramatically transformed and it feels like in finance, for the first time, AI is real.

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

Well worth a listen people. @jbhearn is worth following for his different perspectives on the Economy and Economists...

[Professor John Hearn @jbhearn]

For those who missed it yesterday.

What's wrong with economics, economists and the Economy https://t.co/HfLQeyMOxe via @YouTube

[Professor John Hearn @jbhearn]

For those who missed it yesterday.

What's wrong with economics, economists and the Economy https://t.co/HfLQeyMOxe via @YouTube

[PaulKythreotis @PKythreotis]

Financial firms like Blackstone and Blue Owl applying 'Gate' restrictions and limitations to withdrawals should be seeing as a 'canary in the coalmine' for the financial industry, suggesting that liquidity stress in private markets could trigger wider market volatility.

[PaulKythreotis @PKythreotis]

reaching $1.28 trillion.
Demographic Hardship: Gen Z and millennial borrowers are falling behind on payments at higher rates, especially for auto loans (over 7% delinquent).

[PaulKythreotis @PKythreotis]

The delinquency rate for the highest-income 10% of ZIP codes jumped 73% (4.8% in Q2 2022 to 8.3% in Q1 2025), while the lowest-income 10% saw a 53% increase (14.9% to 22.8%).
Total U.S. household debt hit an all-time high of $18.59 trillion in Q3 2025, with credit card debt

[PaulKythreotis @PKythreotis]

Driven by record-high debt ($1.28 trillion), high-interest rates (approx. 22.8% APR), and inflation, consumers—particularly in lower-income and younger demographics—are struggling to repay, signaling significant stress on household balance sheets.

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

Worth reading this thread on US CREDIT CARD DELINQUENCIES... By @PKythreotis

[PaulKythreotis @PKythreotis]

Trumponomics and his grift have steered the US economic toward deep recession.
U.S. credit card delinquencies are surging, with nearly 12% of balances 90+ days past due by early 2026, marking the highest levels since 2011.

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

@HarrisSamaras my exact point in the following tweet attached below...

#Trump cannot be believed but such is the fog of war and Markets wanted to believe it...

You can't make this stuff up Harris if you tried but #Trump has no problem pushing out whatever narrative suits him...

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

#Breaking #US #Irán talks...

The gift that keeps on giving...
Iran Leadership say never happened...

Who do you believe? Market VOL continues...

I say talks never happened. Is Trump looking for an offramp?...

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

#BREAKİNGNEWS "#OIL DROPS ON IRAN DEESCALATION"...

IN #WAR always focus on what is happening on the ground... The rest is just noise...

Soundbites are not relevant unless you see meaningfull physical outcomes. Always verify...

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

#Breaking..."#OIL DROPS ON IRAN DEESCALATION"...

#Trump claims Talks with #Iran going well...

#Irán claims no talks...

Who do you believe
@PaulGambles2 @Halsrethink @Smaulgld @HarrisSamaras ?

"The gift that keeps on giving...#Market VOL continues...

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

#Breaking #US #Irán talks...

The gift that keeps on giving...
Iran Leadership say never happened...

Who do you believe? Market VOL continues...

I say talks never happened. Is Trump looking for an offramp?...

[Karen Tso @cnbcKaren]

Trump tells CNBC he is pausing some strikes for five days after talks with Iran @CNBC https://t.co/8tWv5wb7sc

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

#Breaking..."#OIL DROPS ON IRAN DEESCALATION"...

#Trump claims Talks with #Iran going well...

#Irán claims no talks...

Who do you believe
@PaulGambles2 @Halsrethink @Smaulgld @HarrisSamaras ?

"The gift that keeps on giving...#Market VOL continues...

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

#US #House prices constrained by high interest rates and and unaffordability.

#FED needs to cut to Neutral (3%) to get the Housing market moving again.

Tough to cut rates while inflationary pressures still remain.

[Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat]

Homebuilder sentiment fell to 36 vs ests for an uptick to 38. This worsening occurred despite mortgage rates continuing to decline, now the lowest since Sept 2022 at 6.18%. Home prices haven't budged much, and affordability remains low.

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

#AIBubble anyone?...

@PaulGambles2 calls it on Squawk Box Asia today.

#Nvidia down 60% has happened before...

Should we start playing defense?

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

@PaulGambles2 I am well thanks Paul. How about yourself?

Busy navigating choppy US Markets in Bubble Territory particularly #AI Tech. Reminds me of 1999...

Markets are lucky to have the #FED PUT behind them!

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

"Tariff Theater" coined by @PaulGambles2 playing on the minds of #FED Officials going into #JacksonHole this week...

US Importers eating the #Tariffs for now...

##stagflation anyone?...

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

#TARRIFWAR. Is the #Tariff Trade War starting to impact Employment. Apart from some Summer hiring layoffs could start to get ugly.

Markets will front run this! Expect a rocky August!

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

#Breaking. #President #Trump calls for #FED to lower rates. Tells Chair #Powell directly during visit.

#FED right to keep rates on hold until we have clarity on #Trade Wars. #Tariffs are inflationary and the #US #Consumer will pay the cost eventually!

[Jonathan Urlich @CapitalJon]

#Breaking President #Trump visits FEDERAL RESERVE with #FED Chair Jay Powell.

#Trump states he would fire Project Manager for cost overruns. He is right. The State is hopeless on Capital spend for any sort of construction projects.