Capital Optimism

Irishman in London town

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@Tangible_Bruce @F_Compounders That's from the Joys of Compounding, quite a decent read

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@SquirrelMacro @SecScottBessent I mean, we're running money with the big boys here...

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@SquirrelMacro Damn. I thought I had landed on some serious alpha there for a moment 😉. This kind of has to go well though doesn't it, for the other IPOs to get the green light so it's an ECM version of TBTF...

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@SquirrelMacro So...long SpaceX for...a week?

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@R2Discovery sorry chaps, I'm delighted. I'll get to pick up even more shares now as they are, somehow, bafflingly, even cheaper than they were last week

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@R2Discovery balls. I have something else that is reporting on Monday that I was/am going to liquidate and rotate into $CEK (sigh) The devil pisses on my cornflakes yet again. Still maybe it won't spike TOO much on Monday and I can get in at a decent price

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@mfwarder The best response was the first one 🤣

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@mathlonning is this a joke?

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@BehavioralMacro Thanks bud

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@BehavioralMacro hey mate, any opinion on any of the coal names? $BTU, $AMR and $CNR seem to be breaking out

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@BehavioralMacro A few more days on light volume under the 200D and I'm in

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@mr_deepvalue What kind of price are you thinking? I can't see a Scheme of Arrangement making it through for anything less than 550p

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@mr_deepvalue Yep, I can see that.

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@mr_deepvalue Just on the recent announcement, do you think the single Western Desert contract gives $CNE so much deal leverage that it could push the valuation out of Cafani's reach, esp. given the 'certain funds' requirement?

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@mr_deepvalue Bond knew what he was doing but poor old Daniel hadn't a clue

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔Microsoft canceled its internal Claude Code licenses this week after token-based billing made the cost untenable, even for a company with effectively infinite cloud resources. Uber's CTO sent an internal memo warning the company burned through its entire 2026 AI budget in just four months. American AI software prices have jumped 20% to 37%, and GitHub (owned by Microsoft) is dropping flat-rate plans for usage-based billing across its products.

My Take
The AI subsidy era is ending in real time. The same company that put $13 billion into OpenAI and built the Azure infrastructure powering most of Anthropic's compute just looked at the bill from a competitor's coding tool and decided it was not worth paying. That is not a productivity failure on Anthropic's end. Token-based pricing is forcing every enterprise customer to confront the actual cost of running these models at scale, and the number turns out to be far higher than the flat-rate experiments suggested.

This ties directly to my Gemini Flash post yesterday. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google all raised effective prices in the last six months. Enterprises that built workflows assuming AI costs would keep falling are now watching annual budgets evaporate in months. Two outcomes look likely from here. Either enterprises scale back AI usage to fit budgets, which slows the revenue ramp the labs need to justify their valuations ahead of IPOs, or the labs cut prices and absorb the losses, which makes the unit economics worse at exactly the wrong moment. Both paths land in the same place, the numbers stop working, and somebody has to take the writedown.

Hedgie🤗

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@FirstSeagull aaaand back up another 22% today...

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@mr_deepvalue Yep it will be a real winner when that fat f**k in the White House is finally gone

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@mr_deepvalue $NEXS?

[Capital Optimism @capitaloptimism]

@BehavioralMacro It looks like the market is getting a little nervous about the earnings but hey ho, who knows?