Cathy Buffington

Business data and measurement. Opinions are my own.

[Forecasting Research Institute @Research_FRI]

Today, we are launching the most rigorous ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP).

We’ve assembled a panel of 339 top experts across computer science, AI industry, economics, and AI policy.

Roughly every month—for the next three years—they’ll provide precise, falsifiable forecasts on the trajectory of AI capabilities, adoption, and impact.

Our results cover where experts predict major effects of AI, where they expect less progress than AI industry leaders, and where they disagree.

LEAP experts forecast major effects of AI by 2030, including:

⚡ 7x increase in AI’s share of U.S. electricity use (1% -> 7%)
🖥️ 9x increase in AI-assisted work hours (2% -> 18%)

By 2040, experts predict:
👥30% of adults will use AI for companionship daily
🏆60% chance that AI will solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem
🚂32% chance that AI will have been at least as impactful as a "technology of the millennium," like the printing press or the Industrial Revolution.

🧵Read on for more insights and results

[NBER @nberpubs]

Nearly a third of businesses have employees who work from home, with tremendous variation across sectors, from Jose Maria Barrero, @I_Am_NickBloom, Kathryn Bonney, Cory L. Breaux, @cathybuffington, Steven J. Davis, @Lucia_Econ, Brian McKenzie, Keith Savage, and @tellotri https://t.co/3f1IrZVA4N

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

New @nberpubs: "Business Applications as a Leading Economic Indicator?" https://t.co/0Oe9O2nGTR (spoiler: yep)

[Cathy Buffington @CathyBuffington]

@UpdatedPriors Why I'm here

[Andrew Foote @AFoote_Econ]

Do you have a great undergrad student who is finishing this year and looking for something resembling a pre-doc? We may have a spot in LEHD for that person. I will post when the ad is up, but want to get this on everyone's radar.
Lots of admin data experience guaranteed.

[NBER @nberpubs]

AI use for business purposes is relatively small but growing rapidly, from Kathryn Bonney, Cory Breaux, @cathybuffington, Emin Dinlersoz, @Lucia_Econ, @ngoldschlag, @JHaltiwanger_UM, Zachary Kroff, and Keith Savage https://t.co/IvKOQYsDn3

[Cathy Buffington @CathyBuffington]

@djatumich @JHaltiwanger_UM we're planning on submitting! :)

[John Haltiwanger @JHaltiwanger_UM]

Released today is Census BTOS data and working paper on AI use by businesses in real time (September 2023-February 2024). Working paper can be found at:
https://t.co/hLnKLN8DrS
AI use for business purposes remains relatively small but growing. Higher at larger businesses:

[U.S. Census Bureau @uscensusbureau]

Our monthly manufacturing new orders are on a nominal basis. What might price adjusting these estimates look like?

Read our blog ➡️ https://t.co/FRUE6H8yhb

#CensusEconData #Manufacturing

[Cathy Buffington @CathyBuffington]

@UpdatedPriors Really enjoyed the presentation, Ryan! This came out this morning as well
https://t.co/3pn5mZB8wW

[VoxEU @voxeu]

New technologies, automation, & productivity across US firms
https://t.co/fc22y1WOLQ

@DAcemogluMIT @MIT, G Anderson @NCSESgov, D Beede, @CathyBuffington, E Dinlersoz, L Foster, @ngoldschlag, Z Kroff, N Zolas @uscensusbureau, @JHaltiwanger_UM @bsosumd, @pascualrpo @YaleCowles

[Cathy Buffington @CathyBuffington]

@AFoote_Econ Good thing I'm in the data not forecasting business!

[Cathy Buffington @CathyBuffington]

@Lucia_Econ Sorry to miss!

[Cathy Buffington @CathyBuffington]

Historic investment in U.S. manufacturing 🤯

[U.S. Census Bureau @uscensusbureau]

Total #ConstructionSpending $1,925.6B (annualized) in May 2023, up 0.9% from April and up 2.4% from May 2022, which was $1,880.9B. https://t.co/tRfaqWufnl

#CensusEconData #Housing #Manufacturing

[Cathy Buffington @CathyBuffington]

Annual public service announcement that the lotuses are in bloom at the Kennilworth Aquatic Gardens part of the @NatlParkService @KenAqGardens

[Rob Seamans @robseamans]

🚨🚨New Paper Alert!!🚨🚨

Where in the US are all the robots?

They are in the #RobotHubs!

We document this interesting finding in a new paper with @erikbryn @CathyBuffington @ngoldschlag #FrankLi and @jmirandal

Available via @nberpubs here: https://t.co/TunJVAH28z

[Jed Kolko @JedKolko]

Come work with us! Our econ team at the @CommerceGov is hiring economists.

Job posting went up this morning; closes a week from Monday.

https://t.co/SZCGYulzGf

[U.S. Census Bureau @uscensusbureau]

New #CensusEconData released today ➡️ The Index of Economic Activity (IDEA) aggregates 15 of our primary economic data series into a single, weighted combination that will be released daily: https://t.co/W8QMzWYpEm

[Cathy Buffington @CathyBuffington]

@kenanfikri does a great job highlighting the new @uscensusbureau experimental data product which provides geographic detail for the value of manufacturing construction put in place. https://t.co/25LT9zGXnN

[Kenan Fikri @kenanfikri]

Attention all you industrial policy watchers, national security types, and clean transitioners:

The build out of the next generation of American #manufacturing is already underway. It's early days, but so far the Scottsdales are beating the Scrantons.

https://t.co/m62I92kpoF

[U.S. Census Bureau @uscensusbureau]

Now available: Updated weekly Business Application #data with industry detail through 2022.

Learn more about this special release: https://t.co/pSbp7q4NzG

#CensusEconData