Rick Snyder

What is it about your own miserable works & doings that you think you could please God more than the sacrifice of His own Son? ―Martin Luther

[William Weedon @WmWeedon]

“It can easily be judged that if the churches observed ceremonies correctly, their dignity would be maintained and reverence and piety would increase among the people.”—AC Intro Part II

[Rick Snyder @cbusrick]

@TheRonnieVShow How do we find you there?

[BMNR Bullz @BMNRBullz]

TOM LEE: THE MARKET IS CHEAPER THAN PEOPLE THINK

@fundstrat says this rally is still earnings driven, not P/E driven.

2027 S&P 500 earnings estimates have jumped from $352 to $399 this year.

But the forward P/E has fallen:

🔹 S&P 500: 6,846 → 7,365
🔹 Forward P/E: 19.4x → 18.4x
🔹 Earnings up
🔹 Multiple down

That means the market is higher, but fundamentally cheaper than January 1st.

Semis just dropped 7% in one day.

Since 2011, 6%+ one day drops in semis have had an 88% win rate over 1, 3 and 6 months, with a median 6 month gain of 38%.

Tom Lee’s view:

This looks less like a top and more like a buyable dip in the AI infrastructure trade.

[Rick Snyder @cbusrick]

@KeithMcCullough Are we in an overall Quad 4 or is it limited to certain sectors?

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The supply of new homes in the US crossed above 10 months in May.

That's a level we've previously seen only during recessions or the 2022 inflation spike.

The message is clear:

Home prices are too high relative to demand. One way or another, that gap has to close.

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

This is the market trying to find equilibrium. If you read our 2pm update we said this:

“Price can’t go up because there are zero magnets. Price can’t go down because the $730 accelerator and put unwind provide a floor.”

The result is mechanical equilibrium at $733. Max pain at $731 confirming the market is sitting exactly where the options math says it should.

SPY closed at $734.40. Right on schedule.

We try and be to the penny. Sometimes we are off by a few cents.

$SPY $QQQ

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

🚨🚨PATTERN DETECTION | Thursday June 25

Falling Wedge detected. 7/7 Strong. 97% historical success rate. The highest probability pattern in our dataset.

THE SIGNAL:

Falling Wedge: 7/7 STRONG
Breakout: $753.79
Target: $792.01
Backtest: 97.1% success rate across 34 patterns. Average gain: +8.63%. Average days to target: 41.

Every condition confirmed. Both trendlines converging with R² of 1.000. The highs are falling (-0.056%/day). The lows are falling faster (-0.086%/day). The pattern has been compressing since the June 4 selloff began. Three weeks of lower highs and lower lows converging toward a breakout.

97% is the highest success rate of any pattern the scanner has ever published. The only pattern that came close was the Reverse H&S at 90%.

THE CONVERGENCE:

Two independent patterns now point at the same target zone:

Falling Wedge: breakout $753.79, target $792.01
Reverse H&S: breakout $758.54, target $794.49

$792 and $794. Two different pattern types. Same target within $2. Detected independently from different formations. When two unrelated patterns converge on the same price level, the statistical confidence compounds.

THE TIMING:

The breakout level is $753.79. Price is $730.42. That's 3.2% above. The breakout doesn't fire until price reclaims $753.

Average days to max gain: 41. If the breakout occurs in early July when the rebalancing headwind expires, the target of $792 arrives by mid-August.

The rebalancing window closes June 30. July seasonality averages +3.37% with a 100% hit rate. The mechanical headwind has 3 trading days left. The falling wedge breakout at $753 sits on the other side of the headwind's expiration.

THE CAUTION:

97% isn't 100%. Average drawdown before the move: -5.74%. The pattern can still push lower before breaking out. Price at $730 could test $720 or lower before the wedge resolves upward. The breakout requires patience and a reclaim of $753.

The pattern also requires the rebalancing to actually end June 30. If forced selling extends or a new catalyst (Iran MOU failure, Warsh surprise) arrives, the wedge can break down instead of up. 3% of the time it does.

We publish at detection. The 97% speaks for itself. The breakout level is published. The target is published. The data determines the timing.

$753.79 is the breakout. $730 is at price. $792 is the target. 3 days to quarter-end.

$SPY $QQQ $IWM

[Rick Snyder @cbusrick]

@Basssem666 “The selloff is NOT about fundamentals. It's about calendar-driven forced selling meeting a structure with no cushion.

“When the selling window closes June 30, the fundamental picture is the same one that drove SPY from $650 to $760.”

https://t.co/IKNjHBonK6

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

SPY OPEN | Thursday June 25

$730.42. Down 0.38%. MU crushed earnings. SPY rallied to $739.92 pre-market. It's $730 now. The bounce faded. Again.

THE PATTERN: THIRD TIME:

June 10: Cold CPI (good news). SPY rallied at the open. Sold off 1.21%. Mechanics overrode fundamentals.

June 23: Flash PMIs beat across the board (good news). SPY rallied at the open. Sold off 0.86%. Mechanics overrode fundamentals.

June 25: MU smashed earnings, up 9% (good news). SPY rallied to $739.92 pre-market, above the $737 GEX flip. Back to $730 by 10 AM. Mechanics overriding fundamentals.

Three catalysts. Three morning rallies. Three fades. The rebalancing flow absorbs every catalyst. The $165B of forced institutional selling doesn't care what MU earned.

THE REGIME THESIS, CONFIRMED AGAIN:

Monday night we published: "The post-OPEX window is the only reliable positive gamma window. It closes fast."

Wednesday we published: "If the reload takes two sessions, the structure is deteriorating."

The MU catalyst fired pre-market. Price pushed above the $737 flip into positive gamma. The rebalancing flow overwhelmed it by 10 AM. Price fell back below the flip. The positive window lasted hours, not days. The regime thesis holds for the third consecutive test.

THE STRUCTURE:

GEX: -$1,003M. Improved from -$1,681M yesterday. The MU rally compressed vol and drained some negative gamma overnight. Still deeply negative. Still amplifying. But a $678M improvement.

Dealer delta: +16.6M. Flipped positive again from -29.0M yesterday. The engine oscillation continues. Positive this morning. The question is whether it holds through the afternoon or reverses for the fourth time.

GEX flip: $737. 0.9% above price. The pre-market rally pierced it and fell back. The flip is the ceiling the market can't hold above during rebalancing week.

Max pain: $731. 0.1% above price. Essentially at max pain. Expiration gravity pulls up slightly.

IV skew: -1.51% bullish. Fourth consecutive session of bullish skew despite falling prices. The persistent call demand underneath the bearish surface hasn't broken. The institutions want upside exposure. The calendar won't let them have it until June 30.

Premium: +$353M at 66% call-heavy. Call dominance persists.

66% of volume is CLOSING positions. The unwind from yesterday's record put session is underway. Puts closing. The institutions that loaded $2.23B of puts yesterday are already taking profits.

THE ACCELERATOR CHAIN:

$730: -$139M (at price)
$729: -$50M (0.2% below)
$725: -$126M (0.7% below)
$724: -$48M (0.9% below)
$720: -$122M (1.4% below)
$710: -$85M (2.8% below)
$700: -$78M (4.2% below)

If $730 breaks, $725 catches. If $725 breaks, $720 catches. The staircase continues to $700. The 30-day low at $725.43 is 0.7% below. A break below that level is a new cycle low.

WHAT MU TELLS US:

MU beat. The AI capex thesis held. Semiconductor demand is intact. The selloff is NOT about fundamentals. It's about calendar-driven forced selling meeting a structure with no cushion. When the selling window closes June 30, the fundamental picture is the same one that drove SPY from $650 to $760. The earnings didn't change. The plumbing did. The plumbing has an expiration date.

THE COUNTDOWN:

3 trading days until the rebalancing window closes. Friday June 26 OpEx: 1.16M contracts (818K puts). Monday June 29. Tuesday June 30: 1.67M contracts (1.37M puts). Quarter-end.

July seasonality: +3.37% average, 100% hit rate over 10 years. The tailwind arrives when the headwind expires.

The bottom line:

MU proved the earnings are intact. The market proved the rebalancing is stronger than earnings. Both are true simultaneously. The mechanic dominates until June 30. The fundamentals resume after. Three days.

$737 is the flip. $730 is at price. $725 is the accelerator. $720 is the wall. 3 days to June 30.

$SPY $QQQ $MU

[Dr. Maalouf ‏ @realMaalouf]

Most Muslims believe the only thing preventing Islam from taking over the world is America.

Muslims view their presence in America solely as a religious call to undermine the country and achieve that goal.

“We are in the belly of the beast, and we need to strike the heart of the Empire to bring it down.”

Muslims in America are working to destroy the country from within, and they are allying with progressive useful idiots.

America needs to wake up!

[Rick Snyder @cbusrick]

@TheRonnieVShow The two upgrades today were extremely conservative. Which actually will help the momentum up when they have to upgrade again.

[Rick Snyder @cbusrick]

@TheRonnieVShow What is going on with $ONDS today? Seemed like good news yesterday. I’ve been adding shares today but the continued sink has me wondering if I’m missing something. Thanks!

[Rick Snyder @cbusrick]

@KeithMcCullough Are we still quad 1 or did it shift to 4?

[Rick Snyder @cbusrick]

@KeithMcCullough Your $DPZ short call keeps delivering. Thanks!

[Rick Snyder @cbusrick]

@TheRonnieVShow $ZETA could see some upgrades over the next few days. Hopefully some continued momentum starting up.

[Issues, Etc. @IssuesEtc]

WATCH and SHARE LCMS President Matt Harrison's presentation, "Making the Case for the Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod."

[The Lutheran Witness @LutheranWitness]

Nothing in customary rites should be changed without a reasonable cause. So to nurture unity, old customs that can be kept without sin or great inconvenience should be kept.
— Apology of the Augsburg Confession XV 51

[Hans Fiene 🦬 @HansFiene]

The desire to become righteous before God is something man cannot turn off, no matter how "unchurched" or "secular" he becomes. It animates everything he does. And every self-destructive impulse you see in the western world is the result of people coming up with insane answers to the "what makes me righteous" question after rejecting the answer that Christianity gives.

So when it comes to Muslim rape gangs, why are European leaders and progressives categorically unwilling to address the issue? It's because they believe that "not being racist" makes them righteous. That's what makes them good people, holy, acceptable to whatever concept of God they've cobbled together in their minds.

Present them with the evidence and many will simply ignore it. They will act like you said nothing so they can resume cooing over the beauty of multiculturalism and prove to themselves, and their god, that they are not racist and thus righteous, unlike all the racist people who have such unjustified views towards Islam.

Show the very faces of the girls who were raped to the most devout priests and priestesses of "not being racist" and they will literally laugh in their faces. They will boast of not caring. And they will boast of not caring because the righteousness they get from "not being racist" completely entirely 100% matters more to them than innocent girls being victimized. They would let five million innocents be raped before they would dare admit anything remotely approaching the "racism" that Islam is incompatible with freedom and peace and order and safety. They would let their own daughters be raped for the same reason. If you think I'm overexaggerating, consider how many people throughout history have sacrificed their own children to the gods they believed would favor them for doing so. Those people were made of the same flesh. They carried the same sinful nature. They are on the same quest for righteousness and forged the same dark paths on their journey.

And until you see Jesus as the answer, there is no way to get yourself on safe footing. Until you believe that Jesus Christ is the sacrificial Lamb who won your salvation and gave it to you freely, then you will always be inclined to sacrifice the weak and lowly in order to accomplish whatever you think you need to accomplish to be pleasing in the sight of your god.

So if you aren't a Christian but hate to see what has happened throughout Europe, and what is happening in America, the only way you can build a better future is through faith in Christ. Find a church. Hear the Gospel. Believe it. Understand that the only way to be pleasing to God is through the blood of His Son. The more we all believe that, the more we will all stop turning a blind eye to the blood of the innocent today.

[Tabletalk Magazine @Tabletalk]

To live honorably means lifting up Jesus in all that we do even though we will be shamed by the world. —Grant R. Castleberry (@GRCastleberry) https://t.co/e128mC6tcD

[Rick Snyder @cbusrick]

@KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye $DPZ “delivered” on the short side today. So did $SHAK and $CMG. Thanks man!

[Rick Snyder @cbusrick]

RT @KobeissiLetter: We are about to experience is massive end-of-Q2 rebalancing period:

Institutional investors are estimated to sell up t…