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Big Short investor Steve Eisman says the AI labs know they have no moats and are manufacturing a crisis to get regulation that hands them a duopoly
"I think this is all nonsense."
[ You think it's all nonsense? ]
"All nonsense. I think that there's something else completely going on here. ... What I think is happening is that token maxing is over. The open weight models are taking big market share. I think these companies are very nervous. They realize that there are no moats around their business whatsoever, and they're trying to manufacture a crisis that will create regulation, and that they think they can then manipulate to create the moats, to create the duopoly that they want."
[ Wow. ]
"That's what I think is going on."
"Honestly, I think this whole Terminator thing is garbage. That's for sure."
Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck says he won't ride his own rockets because he knows the safety factor is 1.1 to 1.2 everywhere
"I have all the knowledge and none of the courage to climb aboard a rocket."
Scott Galloway says the Jensen Huang scandal will go down as the greatest breach in espionage history, worse than the spy who blew Navy sub tracking
"The term we use over and over and it's in full force here is idolatry of innovators and idolatry of the dollar. So an unbelievable innovator has created $5 trillion in shareholder value, but that exonerates him from compromising national security."
"The US Navy used to be able to literally tell you, okay, the Russian sub patrolling here is about to turn left in 17 seconds. And then a spy within one of the agencies revealed that we were doing that to the Russians."
"...the potential damage here is so extraordinary. This will go down as the greatest leak or breach in espionage history."
Scott Galloway says the Jensen Huang scandal will go down as the greatest breach in espionage history, worse than the spy who blew Navy sub tracking
"The term we use over and over and it's in full force here is idolatry of innovators and idolatry of the dollar. So an unbelievable innovator has created $5 trillion in shareholder value, but that exonerates him from compromising national security."
"The US Navy used to be able to literally tell you, okay, the Russian sub patrolling here is about to turn left in 17 seconds. And then a spy within one of the agencies revealed that we were doing that to the Russians."
"...the potential damage here is so extraordinary. This will go down as the greatest leak or breach in espionage history."
GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik says if US data centers slow down they just get built in Calgary on cheap natural gas
[ Joe: If things slow down even more, you're not worried about that from GE's perspective? ]
"Well, I would say the question is less whether it slows down and more where does it get built. You know, at the moment, if we're debating between whether it's Texas or Ohio, that's one debate, but it doesn't have to be in the US. It can get built in Calgary. There's a lot of inexpensive natural gas there."
"So I think at the end of the day, this infrastructure is going to be built. The real question is where."
[ Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, the day before ]
"We certainly don't want this infrastructure going to places outside the US, which is what will naturally happen because the demand for compute is there."
Box CEO Aaron Levie says you can tell when a lab bought RL data because its models suddenly get good at Blender
"...you can already tell the moment when one of the labs bought a large amount of, you know, RL data in a particular domain because you're like, oh, like all of a sudden these models are really good at 3D modeling and using Blender"
"And so it's, you're kind of like weirdly at the mercy of, you know, probably like three researchers at one lab deciding to buy $10 million of RL data on one topic and then boom, there's a jump in intelligence in that area."
CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator says he's canceled his 10b5 stock sale plan, asked on air about $3.3 billion of founder selling since the $CRWV IPO
"So this is going to be the first time I've said this. I've canceled my 10b5."
Jason Calacanis says the San Francisco AI crowd has delusions of grandeur, a day after Dario Amodei told IPO buyers cancer will be a relic within a decade
[ Dario Amodei, Nov 10 ]
"...cancer, Alzheimer's, heart disease, mental illness, these will be relics of the past in, I think, less than a decade."
[ Jason Calacanis, Nov 11 ]
"It's delusion. No, this group of people, this group of San Francisco people... They have delusions of grandeur."
"And there is evidence that every math problem is going to get solved. But you're right, DA, it's not going to reverse prostate cancer."
CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator says he's canceled his 10b5 stock sale plan, asked on air about $3.3 billion of founder selling since the $CRWV IPO
"So this is going to be the first time I've said this. I've canceled my 10b5."
Dan Niles says Anthropic could jump 50% on its IPO just to catch SpaceX and Palantir, while Anthropic and OpenAI's combined losses keep growing
"You could potentially see that stock top 50% on its IPO just to get to where SpaceX and Palantir are trading."
CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator says when high yield got expensive he raised $9 billion in prepayments and deposits instead
[ Jim: You indicated there's another kind of debt to the company that actually is basically trading at par. ]
"That is correct. Our asset level debt has basically been rock solid through this entire thing."
"We're about to launch another asset level debt in the next week or two that has already been rated high investment grade. You know, we suspect that that will be underwritten in the market at a 7 to a 7.5% interest."
"You saw that in our earnings when I said, okay, high yield debt is getting expensive, we'll go to prepayments, which we have done in the past, and we raised $9 billion worth of prepayments and deposits."
Palantir CEO Alex Karp says AI could make people like him 20 times richer and you can't explain to Americans why that's justified
"You have a revolution that is making people like me potentially 20 times richer. Go explain to the American people why that's justified. You can't."
"...rich people can become very wealthy but not 20, 50 times wealthier than they are without explaining to the average person how they're going to become wealthy."
"And that's what I'm saying in public. In private, it's like, are you guys, are you idiots? Like nobody's signing up for this."
Scott Galloway says a normal board would put Jensen Huang on leave until the independent counsel reports back, and Nvidia is keeping him on as CEO
"Now here's the issue from a governance standpoint. It was very interesting today. They said he's going to continue to operate as CEO and they've hired a special counsel to investigate it."
"Typically on a board, what you would do in anything of this gravity, you would ask him to take a leave of absence until you got the report back from the independent counsel."
"The board is human. And I did some research on the board today. And it's a group of what I'll call talented, accomplished executives, but not what you would typically see on the board of the most valuable company in the world."
[ Kara: I don't know one. They're mid level. ]
Dwarkesh Patel tells Jake Sullivan that Anthropic is 12 hours ahead of China, because startups with a few dozen people got that kind of access to the labs' source code within 12 hours
"...the idea for racing right now is that we could beat China."
"...AI is fundamentally just IP... the weights themselves, the algorithm and secrets... can just be easily stolen."
"And we know that there's, you know, startups with dozens of employees that have recently started that have been able to penetrate to this level of access to the source code or to the Slack where these algorithm secrets are discussed, Anthropic and OpenAI."
"...within like 12 hours of getting started. So you're in a situation where really Anthropic is not 12 months or 6 months or 3 months ahead of China. It's 12 hours ahead of China."
Dan Niles bets dinner that $NVDA goes up on a beat and raise even if Jensen Huang is out, because Apple's stock didn't care when Steve Jobs died
[ Zach: Clearly it is all Jensen Huang right now and how that stock's trading in the short term. ]
"I don't know that it is, because what happens if they beat and raise next week?"
"Do you think people are going to care? They didn't care when Steve Jobs passed away."
"...I'm telling you this right now. I will bet you dinner next time we meet. If they beat and raise with an 11 PE, that stock is going up."
"Because there's 40,000 people at Nvidia. Do you think Jensen's the only one at the company?"
[ Zach: No. ]
"Think there's not other people there designing chips that are competent?"
Jensen Huang told Bloomberg he hopes to still be earning his keep at Nvidia 20 years from now, in a documentary that premiered the day before he resigned
"20 years from now, I hope I stay healthy and I hope I continue to earn my keep"
Dan Niles bets dinner that $NVDA goes up on a beat and raise even if Jensen Huang is out, because Apple's stock didn't care when Steve Jobs died
[ Zach: Clearly it is all Jensen Huang right now and how that stock's trading in the short term. ]
"I don't know that it is, because what happens if they beat and raise next week?"
"Do you think people are going to care? They didn't care when Steve Jobs passed away."
"...I'm telling you this right now. I will bet you dinner next time we meet. If they beat and raise with an 11 PE, that stock is going up."
"Because there's 40,000 people at Nvidia. Do you think Jensen's the only one at the company?"
[ Zach: No. ]
"Think there's not other people there designing chips that are competent?"
Export control analyst Gregory Allen says Jensen Huang called Nvidia an F1 car built around himself as the driver, and nobody else there is set up to lead
"I think this is a story of hubris. Jensen Huang, who has accomplished so much in his career, thought he was untouchable and made a number of mistakes in his personal life, and ones I believe affect U.S. national security."
"Jensen Huang has previously described the company as the F1 car built around him as the driver. Everyone else in the company is a specialized component, an engine, a wheel, an axle, a turbocharger. No one else is set up to be a leader."
"This poor governance extends to the board of directors that was set up when Nvidia was a gaming company. Now they are at the center of global geopolitics and U.S. national security, and no one on that board of directors has meaningful foreign policy experience."
Scott Galloway says a normal board would put Jensen Huang on leave until the independent counsel reports back, and Nvidia is keeping him on as CEO
"Now here's the issue from a governance standpoint. It was very interesting today. They said he's going to continue to operate as CEO and they've hired a special counsel to investigate it."
"Typically on a board, what you would do in anything of this gravity, you would ask him to take a leave of absence until you got the report back from the independent counsel."
"The board is human. And I did some research on the board today. And it's a group of what I'll call talented, accomplished executives, but not what you would typically see on the board of the most valuable company in the world."
[ Kara: I don't know one. They're mid level. ]
D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria says his pick to replace Jensen Huang is Intel's Lip-Bu Tan, since Intel is broken six ways to Sunday
"This is a really good CEO at a really bad company."
D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria says Jensen Huang personally bailed out CoreWeave three or four times, which is a problem if he has to step down
"Nvidia didn't bail them out. Jensen Huang bailed them out."