cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com

(AKA T1000) CFPi+ Power Index 🏈 | Forward-looking CFB predictions, dynamic spreads & win probs | 2026 rankings at | Data Over Hype.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

New week, new model, new No. 1. Georgia is back on top of our CFPi+ Top 25, tied with Alabama at 29.8. Tennessee, Wake Forest and Oregon all climbed. Ohio State fell from No. 7 to No. 14. More in the comments 👇 #T1000

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

@ChrisEa33094309 Alabama is literally 3 in the actual playoff rankings. Unsure how a resume ranking at 2 is flawed. They have played very well thus far.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Our CFP résumé rankings, now with head-to-head built in. Georgia is No. 1 because it beat Alabama. Tennessee moves ahead of Kentucky after that 34-6 beatdown. Same record, so the result on the field decides it. Notre Dame jumps Miami too 📋 #T1000

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Behind the numbers: all three of our models have Texas Tech winning, by 0.4 to 3.4 points, so all three take Tech +3. Thomas Castellanos took over at QB two games ago, and Tech has averaged 43.5 points since. Oklahoma State answers with 57, 49 and 66 in its last three.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Late night Big 12 in Stillwater 🌙 8-1 Texas Tech is a 3 point underdog at Oklahoma State on DraftKings, and our numbers like the Red Raiders. Our sims say Texas Tech 31, Oklahoma State 30, basically a coin flip at 51.2%. We're taking the points. #T1000

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Behind the numbers: Utah's roster talent rating is just 1.2, and the Utes are 9-0 anyway, because the No. 9 offense and the efficiency (No. 12) are real. Arizona's defense is No. 34. A small edge, 2.1 points, but all three models agree. We're on Utah -1.5.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

9-0 Utah takes its show to Tucson, and this is our No. 2 most watchable game of the week. Arizona won the last meeting 23-10 in 2024. Our sims: Utah 30, Arizona 26, with the Utes winning 59.7% of the time. The opener was Utah -1.5. We have 3.6 🏔️ #T1000

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Behind the numbers: this is talent vs coaching. USC's roster talent rating is 11.9, Indiana's is 3.3. But Curt Cignetti's coach index is 12.8, top five in the country. USC is coming off a 30-18 win over Ohio State, so respect it. All three models land on Indiana -10.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Indiana's defense is No. 4 in the country and hasn't given up more than 19 points in any of its last three games. Our sims have the Hoosiers 31, USC 20, winning 78.2% of the time. The opener was Indiana -10, and we have 11.5 🔴 #T1000

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Behind the numbers: Baylor's No. 18 offense against a BYU defense at No. 21. BYU has dropped two of its last three, at UCF and at Utah. This model is 153-110-8 (58.2%) on edges of 3+ this season. All three models are on Baylor +7.5.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Fun one. BYU is 7-2 and in the CFP rankings, but in our numbers Baylor is actually a spot ahead, No. 25 to No. 26. We still have BYU winning at home, 28-24, 59.6% of the time. The opener was BYU -7.5, though, and we're at 3.5 🐻 #T1000

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Behind the numbers: Duke has quietly won three straight, outscoring Virginia, BC and NC State 107-21. This is our smallest edge on the board, 1.1 points, close to a coin flip against the opener. All three of our models still land on Duke +21. Last meeting: Miami 53-31 in 2024.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Miami has the No. 1 offense in our numbers, and the Canes come home hungry after that loss in South Bend. Our sims: Miami 37, Duke 17, with Miami winning 91.3% of the time. The opener was Miami -21. We have 19.9 🌴 #T1000

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

How it works: 75% is our résumé score, 25% is the committee’s Nov 10 rankings. The résumé score itself is strength of record (70%) plus CFPi+ power (30%). New: when two close teams played and the winner has the same or better record, the winner stays ahead.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Indeed it was. 🫡

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Model might be spot on with margin. Good work.

[Gator Analytics @gatadata88]

🚨 FLORIDA VS. FSU GAMEDAY 🚨

The shitty model was pretty accurate against Miami. Let’s see how it does tonight.

Florida has a 77.1% chance to win, with a projected margin of 8.7 points.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

How to get it: the guide goes by email to verified subscribers only. Can't find it after checking spam? DM us the email address on your CFBPredictor account, and once we confirm it we'll send the guide over.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

The Week 11 Field Guide is out 📬 99 pages: all 138 FBS teams ranked, ten Matchup Labs, Texas at LSU broken down and the full playoff forecast. Verified subscribers, check your email. Not seeing it? Check spam and promotions, or DM us.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

@MPFB_Prediction @CPI_Ratings @ESPN_BillC @TheCFBAdvocate @PDawg206 @bcfremeau @CFB_Data @CFBNumbers @PFF_College @BradPowers7 @dawgindex Agreed.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

@YorkyNHLtips We pull opening lines from CFDB. Interesting movement from the posted opening line. We can look into locking the lines on a particular day, rather than going with the posted opening line.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Week 11 picks are here 🏈 Ten games, a score simulation for each, every line the DraftKings opener. The headliner is Texas at LSU, and we're taking the Tigers. The biggest gap vs the opener: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, 15.1 points. #T1000

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

What's new: each team's last three games count 1.41x (that's √2). Season-ending QB injuries get a fixed rating hit (Ohio State -5.5 without Sayin). Two shadow models check every pick. And new indexes: CFPc+, PPi+ results, EPi+ efficiency, TPi+ talent and CPi+ coaches.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Meet V4.1, the model behind every Week 11 pick. It's the same engine that went 31-24-1 against the spread in Week 9, now tuned to react faster to how teams are playing right now, and to price in quarterback injuries 🧠 #T1000