cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com

CFPi+ Power Index 🏈 | Forward-looking CFB predictions, dynamic spreads & win probs | 2026 rankings + methodology at | Data over Hype.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

We are 100 Days from the Kickoff of College Football!

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

The 24 team expansion is verifiably a bad move. Doesn’t matter who the voices are. It’s not a good system.

[Danny Kanell @dannykanell]

The loudest voices against expanding the playoffs seem to fit some of the following categories

1. Grew up in the 90’s
2. SEC fans.
3. Employed by ESPN

Here’s why 👇👇👇

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

I modeled it as well. 10,000 simulations across 4 formats.

The 12-team pure merit playoff gives the SEC the highest title probability of any format — 35.83%. More teams in the bracket doesn’t help. It just adds SEC teams with no real shot at winning.

[Bud Elliott @BudElliott3]

You just modeled it for me 😂

I know I went to public school in Florida but based on my recollection of fractions, going from 5/12 to 7/24 is a decreasing share.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

My Way-Too-Early 2026 CFBPi+ Top 24 just updated.
Ohio State #1. SEC has 8 in the top 24 and might not have the best team in the country.
Biggest movers from our end of 2025 season model: LSU ▲27, Florida ▲22, Clemson ▲16, Texas ▲14.
https://t.co/iPu3kz3xWe

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

@mstrite61 The perfect system based on our data is a 12 team playoff with no automatic qualifier. Notre Dame would have made it last year and had about a 4-5% chance to win the championship. About as strong of a chance as Miami.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

The wildest part? James Madison in the 2025 bracket wins 0 out of 10,000 simulations. Zero. The G5 autobid is a participation trophy and everyone knows it.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

🚨🏈SHOULD WE EXPAND TO A 24 TEAM PLAYOFF?? — We hope to end this debate once and for all — Which playoff format actually finds the best team in college football? We ran 10,000 simulations across 4 proposed formats. The answer might end the expansion debate for good. (1/5)

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

My Way-Too-Early 2026 CFBPi+ Playoff Rankings are live.
Ohio State is #1. Three 12-0 teams. The SEC has 7 in the top 25 and still might not have the best team in the country.
Full rankings and methodology at https://t.co/iPu3kz3xWe.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

6 is a solid number. Likely a better product then 12. Making the regular season TRULY matter.

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

The perfect size of the CFP is 6

Every other number is wrong

▫️2 byes means regular season perfection is huge
▫️5 games in 3 rounds makes all games a must watch and gets it done efficiently
▫️6 teams keeps out the bloat of "good not great" teams

[Chris @MrChrisBits]

We probably already have too big of a playoff. 16 or 24 will dilute this product and sport down to nothing.

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

The question isn’t “how many teams deserve a shot?” It’s “how many can actually win?” The answer: about 12. Every team beyond that is playing for a check, not a championship. (5/5)

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

🚨🏈SHOULD WE EXPAND TO A 24 TEAM PLAYOFF?? — We hope to end this debate once and for all — Which playoff format actually finds the best team in college football? We ran 10,000 simulations across 4 proposed formats. The answer might end the expansion debate for good. (1/5)

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

Every format produces the same ~9 contenders. Going from 12 to 24 adds 12 teams that share 5.48% of the title equity. Ohio State alone has 5× that. (4/5)

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

With our college football simulation model, we do a DEFINITIVE analysis on the playoff system, and why expanding beyond 12 makes no sense. @JoshPateCFB what do you think?

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

SHOULD WE EXPAND TO A 24 TEAM PLAYOFF?? — We hope to end this debate once and for all — Which playoff format actually finds the best team in college football? We ran 10,000 simulations across 4 proposed formats. The answer might end the expansion debate for good. (1/5)

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

The question was never “how many teams deserve a shot?” It’s “how many can actually win?” The answer: about 12. Every team beyond that is playing for a check, not a championship. (5/5)

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

SHOULD WE EXPAND TO A 24 TEAM PLAYOFF?? — We hope to end this debate once and for all — Which playoff format actually finds the best team in college football? We ran 10,000 simulations across 4 proposed formats. The answer might end the expansion debate for good. (1/5)

[cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com @cfbpredictor]

The numbers don’t lie. Every format produces the same ~9 contenders. Going from 12 to 24 doesn’t add competition — it adds 9 teams with less than a 0.5% chance of winning it all. (4/5)