Bud Davis

CFB Analytics |🏆 1st Place - 2021 SIS Data Analytics Challenge

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

📊How I Perform Opponent Adjustments

▫️Treat each play as a unique matchup
▫️Use Ridge Regression to solve play's resulting EPA given the Offense, Defense, & league-wide homefield advantage
▫️FBS vs FBS games only
▫️Method & code below:

https://t.co/jRCqzaNbb4

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@KiranSathaye no surprises

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

📊2027 Recruiting Class Expected Value
June Update

▫️Top 5: TAMU, OU, TT, Miami, Florida
▫️Best OFF Class: Florida
▫️Best DEF Class: TAMU
▫️Best Trench: TAMU
▫️Best Skill: Miami
▫️Notable: UCLA, VT, Alabama

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

Just dumped pretty much all my Recruit Expected Value analysis I've ever done in this thread

- Position
- Height, Weight, & Age
- Recruiting Service
- Location & School Type
- Historic Performance

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

📊Recruit Expected Value v3

▫️Updated using latest & greatest data & model fit
▫️Assuming high-end 3 Star (Rank #300) is "replacement level":
- #1 Recruit is worth ~20X
- Top 10 Recruits: 8-15X
- Other 5 Star: 5-8X
- 4 Stars: 1-5X
▫️Spend NIL accordingly

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

Recruiting Class EV to National Title Win Rate Analysis

(pre-Indiana)

https://t.co/gO9CV9CNtZ

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

📊Title Win Rate by Class Expected Draft Value

▫️From 100-300 EDV: linear increase of 0-20% Title Win Rate. 10 pts of EDV worth 1% increase in Title Likelihood
▫️Above 350 Win Rate increases rapidly, with 10 pts of EDV worth 3% increase in Title Likelihood

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

📊Recruit Expected Value v3

▫️Updated using latest & greatest data & model fit
▫️Assuming high-end 3 Star (Rank #300) is "replacement level":
- #1 Recruit is worth ~20X
- Top 10 Recruits: 8-15X
- Other 5 Star: 5-8X
- 4 Stars: 1-5X
▫️Spend NIL accordingly

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

Historic Expected Value Classes

https://t.co/l98fq6IVrM

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

📊Historic Draft Value By Recruiting Class

▫️Alabama 2017 is BY FAR the GOAT
▫️Florida 2010 highest Expected DV but no hardware (thanks WM)
▫️Actual DV above on near Expected DV = higher title likelihood.
▫️No title-certainty for high level of Actual or Expected DV
▫️Poor USC

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

HS only. Details here

https://t.co/MTEYiTKrkv

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

📊Recruit Expected Value v3

▫️Updated using latest & greatest data & model fit
▫️Assuming high-end 3 Star (Rank #300) is "replacement level":
- #1 Recruit is worth ~20X
- Top 10 Recruits: 8-15X
- Other 5 Star: 5-8X
- 4 Stars: 1-5X
▫️Spend NIL accordingly

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@CFBwSam TAMU could drop 10 recruits and still have the #1 class

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@CFBwSam TAMU could drop 10 recruits and still have the #1 class

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

compare to 4 years ago

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

📊2027 Recruiting Class Expected Value
June Update

▫️Top 5: TAMU, OU, TT, Miami, Florida
▫️Best OFF Class: Florida
▫️Best DEF Class: TAMU
▫️Best Trench: TAMU
▫️Best Skill: Miami
▫️Notable: UCLA, VT, Alabama

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@statsowar that'd take changing several lines of code

how about this?

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

I’m struggling to think of analysis I’ve ever done where OT didn’t show out as at least a top most important position to recruit at