Bud Davis

CFB Analytics |🏆 1st Place - 2021 SIS Data Analytics Challenge

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

📊Recruit Expected Value v3

▫️Updated using latest & greatest data & model fit
▫️Assuming high-end 3 Star (Rank #300) is "replacement level":
- #1 Recruit is worth ~20X
- Top 10 Recruits: 8-15X
- Other 5 Star: 5-8X
- 4 Stars: 1-5X
▫️Spend NIL accordingly

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

We know much less about my maternal grandfather's service. He didn't like to discuss it and was a coal miner's orphan w/ few people to write home to .

All we know is he served in a support role in the Pacific w/ the 5th Air Force & Far East Air Service Command.

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

Happy Veteran's Day to all who served

Thinking about my paternal Grandpa who served as an engineer building front-line air fields across Europe. His letters home reveal a kid who missed his family (& hunting w/ his dog)

Here are his photos from landing on Utah Beach on D+11

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

looking at this offense and trying to find ANYTHING

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

No exaggeration. This might actually be the worst thing you'll ever looked at in your entire life:

Florida Offense vs Oklahoma

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

Lol the Light Box usage by Oklahoma with UF's 12 usage and Sack/Scramble rate is killing me

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

Brad White really got away from his tendencies vs OU. Varied the personnel and went way heavier on the boxes. Blitzed a ton w/ lots of Man on the backend.

(got smoked by a bad OU offense)

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

🤦‍♂️

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

"need Ni & LB to cover well"

lol 2.3 epa/play on TE tgts

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

🤦‍♂️

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

Oklahoma

▫️Pretty poor offense that is taking a lot of sacks
▫️Done better vs 3-3-5 which Florida bases out of
▫️Doing better throwing to the TEs and likes to target the slot (need Ni & LB to cover well)

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

to clarify since i'm so good at chart titles, this is florida's defense vs ou

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

Unlike our holy and always insightful CFB analytics content

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

CFB film breakdown content slop about to go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[Kegan Reneau @KeganReneau]

Gentlemen, you had my curiosity, but now you have my attention

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

I should post this disclaimer every week

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@BanFallWeddings I think season long Opp Adj EPA/play is a very solid representation of how a team has played to-date.

I've never done a compariison against other metrics nor testing of predictiveness

It's just a value I made, a value I like, and something I have fun posting every week

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@BanFallWeddings I think season long Opp Adj EPA/play is a very solid representation of how a team has played to-date.

I've never done a compariison against other metrics nor testing of predictiveness

It's just a value I made, a value I like, and something I have fun posting every week

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

📊Opp-Adj EPA/Play
Wk 1-10

▫️Irish are the real deal
▫️Unbeaten Utes visiting Arizona. Solid #pac12afterdark
▫️Texas kids used to dream about scoring points. Now they dream of operating a Buc-ee's franchise
▫️Cougar Offense vs Ram Defense. It will be SOMETHING.

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@BanFallWeddings @SickosCommittee EPA and success rate are related but not identical.

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

Oklahoma

▫️Pretty poor offense that is taking a lot of sacks
▫️Done better vs 3-3-5 which Florida bases out of
▫️Doing better throwing to the TEs and likes to target the slot (need Ni & LB to cover well)

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@ryder8892 Oregon State

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

📊Adv Stats Playcalling Sheet

Florida
▫️Terrible sack & scramble EPA
▫️Actual pass atts are good, esp to TE
▫️Run game is slightly inefficient
▫️UF needs to lean way more on the QB-run. Huge for Buster at GT. You've got 2 similarly mid QBs, you can risk it

Request in comments

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@CamLemons_ Wake

(48% success rate on Sacks & Scrambles😍)

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@ArkansasQuant Missouri from mid-september

https://t.co/NtzMz5vuZ7

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@pullingguardd Missouri

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@ArkansasQuant Arkansas from 1 month ago

https://t.co/oP0CrcQMDl

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@ArkansasQuant Arkansas