Bud Davis

CFB Analytics |🏆 1st Place - 2021 SIS Data Analytics Challenge

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

📊Recruit Expected Value v3

▫️Updated using latest & greatest data & model fit
▫️Assuming high-end 3 Star (Rank #300) is "replacement level":
- #1 Recruit is worth ~20X
- Top 10 Recruits: 8-15X
- Other 5 Star: 5-8X
- 4 Stars: 1-5X
▫️Spend NIL accordingly

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

Last time Sumrall squared off against them it didn't go so well for Golesh, Gordon, or Byrum Brown.

Curious to see how it goes in this next bout

https://t.co/z774XV0OE2

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

UF & AU HCs/Coordinators have matched up 4 times:

▫️'15 MTSU 25 (Faulkner), ILL 27 (Banks)
▫️'21 UK 42 (Sumrall/White), Tenn 45 (Golesh)
▫️'22 UK 6 (White), Tenn 44 (Golesh)
▫️'24 Tulane (Sumrall) 45, USF 10 (Golesh/Gordon)

AU Staff is 3-1 w/ a +6 overall MOV

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

UF & AU HCs/Coordinators have matched up 4 times:

▫️'15 MTSU 25 (Faulkner), ILL 27 (Banks)
▫️'21 UK 42 (Sumrall/White), Tenn 45 (Golesh)
▫️'22 UK 6 (White), Tenn 44 (Golesh)
▫️'24 Tulane (Sumrall) 45, USF 10 (Golesh/Gordon)

AU Staff is 3-1 w/ a +6 overall MOV

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

have we learned nothing about humility in the face of the football gods? delete this immediately lest our hubris be punished

[Gator Analytics @gatadata88]

Florida currently has the least injured roster heading into this weekend. Thank you @rustywhitt

(I used the official SEC report and other public info where it is not available. Could be slightly off).

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@greg2126 Notre Dame

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

Florida

▫️Top 5 offense through Wk 2
▫️OL crushing: 2% sk/sc rte + 58% rush succ. rte
▫️Expected stuff working well: Mot, 12, PA, Screen, Gap
▫️Killing defenses who blitz
▫️Great start for Buster and co

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@SamOfSaturday @Nathan_Boise Maryland

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@SamOfSaturday @Nathan_Boise Virginia Tech

12 looking sharp

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

What to watch for Florida's Off vs Auburn

▫️12 pers & heavy boxes: Tigers relatively untested vs 12, played worse heavy
▫️AU gashed by Gap and Outside runs (Buster loves both)
▫️Tigers have been strong vs Screens
▫️Deep passing: AU hasn't seen much, performed poorly when tested

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

Florida

▫️Top 5 offense through Wk 2
▫️OL crushing: 2% sk/sc rte + 58% rush succ. rte
▫️Expected stuff working well: Mot, 12, PA, Screen, Gap
▫️Killing defenses who blitz
▫️Great start for Buster and co

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

What to watch for Florida's Def vs Auburn

▫️Light Boxes: can White limit Auburn run game from a lighter box
▫️MOFC/Zone: Auburn has done well here, White loves it
▫️Wide Tgts: can the UF CBs handle the extreme splits
▫️PA and Gap rushing: keep performing well

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

Auburn

▫️Balanced offense
▫️10% sk/sc rte!
▫️Classic V&S: 11, PA, Wide Tgts, & Gap run game
▫️Low motion & RPO
▫️Deep & Screen Tgts pretty ineffective
▫️RB run game fairly strong/QB less so

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@VReddy17 Next week

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

it's way to early to post opponent adjusted stats. there really isn't even an adjustment to make. that'd just be misleading to post

(fires up script anyway)

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@SSharty30072 Michigan State

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@Bsaturno9 Arizona State

(still RPO and Screen kings)

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@TheTexasHomer Texas

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@gabpyyeah TAMU

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@csATLdawg Georgia

[CFBNumbers @CFBNumbers]

Each Power 4 teams consensus power rating heading into this week + the midway point on their estimated roster budget based on the excellent reporting by The Athletic team

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@bstaple12 @Ihartitz FBS Motion vs PA rates

(data viz is my passion)

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@billyosier Cal

(man that is bleak)

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

jags

[Computer Cowboy @benbbaldwin]

Nobody:

Me: HERE IS A THREAD OF NUMBERS FROM ONE WEEK OF NFL GAMES

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@E_3O5_ Miami (FL)

[Bud Davis @JBudDavis]

@C2Cnerd22 Ohio State