cfcr

Follow me in the New Blue Sky in the link bellow:

[cfcr @cfcr9]

@benjamincowen Agora sim foste uma pessoa sensata....

[cfcr @cfcr9]

@benjamincowen @tancredipalmeri @benjamincowen , na tua óptica, após uma primeira má decisão, todas as más decisões seguintes são legítimas, correcto???
Vergonhoso!!!

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Alan Greenspan died. Still remember his 1996 speech about Irrational exuberance. Markets didn’t peak for another 3+ yrs. Maybe applicable to today’s environment.

[B. Ângelo 🇵🇹 @bfsangelo]

A FED manteve as taxas.. mas não é essa a novidade... A novidade é o que Kevin Warsh fez na sua estreia como presidente: matou o forward guidance.

Por outras palavras: Até hoje, a FED dava ao mercado um "mapa" de pistas sobre o que poderia fazer a seguir. Isso reduzia a incerteza e mantinha a volatilidade controlada.

Warsh acabou com isso. E sugeriu que o dot plot (o gráfico onde cada membro mostra onde acha que vão estar as taxas) também poderá desaparecer.

Outros pontos importantes da reunião:
→ 9 de 18 membros esperam pelo menos UMA subida de taxas ainda este ano
→ Inflação (PCE) só regressa aos 2% em 2028 (antes era mais cedo)
→ Projeção de crescimento dos EUA cortada: 2,4% para 2,2%

A reação foi imediata:
→ S&P 500 a cair mais de 1%
→ Ouro em queda
→ As probabilidades de subida de taxas em 2026 saltaram para 49%

A lógica é simples: menos comunicação da FED = mais incerteza = mais volatilidade.

O prémio de risco está a ser reavaliado.

Estamos a entrar numa nova era de política monetária.

[cfcr @cfcr9]

@benjamincowen Muitos parabéns e votos de muito sucesso.

[cfcr @cfcr9]

@benjamincowen @PeterSchiff KING!!

[cfcr @cfcr9]

@benjamincowen não sejas assim!!! 🤣🤣🤣

[cfcr @cfcr9]

@benjamincowen 100% Agree! Thanks Ben.🍻🍻

[Peter Steinberger 🦞 @steipete]

I'm joining @OpenAI to bring agents to everyone. @OpenClaw is becoming a foundation: open, independent, and just getting started.🦞
https://t.co/XOc7X4jOxq

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Published a blog post on my The Financial Tap website covering 2025 and a look into 2026.

It's a public video. Cheers.

Link > https://t.co/AbutBPOZID

[cfcr @cfcr9]

@joao_wedson Ninguém quer saber dessas shitcoins...
Menos cachaça PPPPLLLLEEEEAAASSSSEEE

[Bybit EU @BybitEU]

🚨 Final Reminder — Going Live Tonight! 🚨
🎙 Bybit EU December Livestream Series | Part 2
🗓 Today ⏰ 20:00 CET

Tonight’s the night! Join us for an insightful conversation on crypto and Bybit EU’s journey — reflecting on 2025 and looking ahead to what’s next.

Hosted by @MeyadeCurfs and joined by @cryptogatto_ & @_Bybit_Mel_ with special guests @CryptoJune777 and @AlexCryptoPT.

✨ What’s on the agenda:
• Highlights and lessons from 2025
• Expectations for 2026, including market cycles & altcoin season
• What’s coming up for Bybit EU, including CCCC Dubai

🎮 PS5 Giveaway
Last chance to enter! Entries remain open until the livestream starts.

🔗 Watch here: https://t.co/7HZ4huRQEY

👉 Join PS5 Giveaway
https://t.co/tdLzYzDoOI

[Bybit EU @BybitEU]

Who wants to win a PS5 this Month? 🎁
Follow 3 simple steps and you’re in. Ready?

📌How to participate:
1⃣Follow @BybitEU
2⃣Like & Repost
3⃣Tag 2 friends

That's it 😎

📌Giveaway runs until:
📅 15 December - 20:00 CET
What are you waiting for? 🎁🔥 #giveaway

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

My December macro newsletter is now available.

It discusses the debasement trade, changing macro conditions, and the large dislocation between the economy and markets.
https://t.co/jKRb3SH87p

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

@steve_hanke What value is there in screaming this message anytime Bitcoin dumps?

You have been doing it since 2017.

How can you say "I told you so" when you were saying the same thing when Bitcoin was $3k?

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

We said bitcoin ETFs would grow via two steps fwd and one step back and rn it is back step time. You can see this pattern in IBIT's flows. If anything we due a few steps back given all the steps fwd. Part of process IMO. Only a small child would expect green all day every day.

[cfcr @cfcr9]

@shanaka86 Esse narrativa está errada porque a descentralização vem da participação de nodes no protocolo da rede, na sua segurança e não nos detentores de sats independentemente do volume que detenham. Nada de confusões!!

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

Saying the obvious. Most people “in crypto” know this, most people “not in crypto” may not understand yet.

Tokenizing gold is NOT “on chain” gold.

It’s tokenizing that you trust some third party will give you gold at some later date, even after their management changes, maybe decades later, during a war, etc.

It’s a “trust me bro” token.

This is the reason no “gold coins” have really took off. 🤷‍♂️

[Gracy Chen @Bitget @GracyBitget]

After recent conversations with several leading market makers and VC partners, I’ve gathered some harsh but real takeaways to share with everyone:

1/ Altcoins are fading
A year ago, I mentioned that VCs had largely stopped investing in early-stage Web3 projects—now it’s even more pronounced. The Black Swan event on October 11 dealt a devastating blow to altcoins. Retail investors trading altcoins face a terrible risk-reward ratio.
Let’s be real—the alt season will not come in 2025 or 26.
Exceptions? Infrastructure projects with real-world resources, such as stablecoins, RWA, and payment solutions—but these types of projects likely won’t even issue tokens.

2/ The DAT bubble is deflating
There’s little genuine demand for long-tail Digital Asset Tokens (DATs). Recent deals have mostly been "in-kind" swaps—tokens for equity.
From the perspective of project teams, token holders, and financial advisors, raising DATs makes sense because it helps raise funds. But for investors—whether you're a private participant before a DAT goes live or buying in later in stock market—you’re likely to end up on the losing side.

3/ Current strategy: Know where we stand, proceed with caution
Trading isn’t easy right now. This isn’t like one or two years ago when you could “buy without thinking,” but it’s also not the peak of a bull market where you should “sell without thinking.” The real market top will arrive amid mindless euphoria—not in the current climate of fear. (NFA, DYOR)
▪️ Those holding cash: Some family offices have approached me, planning to allocate 5–20% to BTC. I think that’s reasonable—the BTC/gold ratio is at a relatively low level.
▪️ Those fully invested or using leverage: I’ve said it before—reduce leverage now and shift to a defensive stance.
▪️ Those partially invested: Stay patient, keep your positions steady, and wait for the right opportunities.

4/ Post-October 11 aftermath: The market needs time to heal
Weekly trading volume across CEXs has dropped by 20–40%. Market makers have also taken a hit—some major players even got liquidated after increasing leverage (I won’t name names here). Large capital is generally more risk-averse, and everyone needs some time to regroup and recover.

In summary:
Bull markets are born in despair and mature in doubt. We are currently in the "doubt" phase. Let go of get-rich-quick fantasies, above all - make sure you stay in the game.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

THE $7.4 TRILLION DETONATOR: AMERICA’S HIDDEN LIQUIDITY BOMB ABOUT TO OBLITERATE EVERY MARKET ASSUMPTION

The most dangerous number in financial history is hiding in plain sight.

$7.4 trillion parked in money market funds. Not in stocks. Not in real estate. Not in gold. Not in Bitcoin. In idle Treasury bills earning 5%+, waiting for a single Federal Reserve decision to unleash the largest capital reallocation event in human civilization.

This isn’t cautious investing. This is a civilizational coiled spring with a central bank trigger.

THE DETONATION PHYSICS

When the Fed cuts 150-200 basis points, MMF income collapses by $100-140 billion annually. That lost yield must hunt returns somewhere.

Each 1% MMF reallocation releases $74 billion.
10% rotation unleashes $740 billion … exceeding most nations’ GDP.
20% exodus deploys $1.48 trillion into risk assets.

The flows don’t trickle. They cascade through institutional pipes like a breaking dam.

THE HISTORICAL PATTERN NOBODY REMEMBERS

1998: $1.3T MMF → Fed cuts → Tech bubble ignites
2003: $2.1T MMF → Fed cuts → Housing mania begins
2009: $3.8T MMF → Fed cuts → Everything rallies 300%+
2025: $7.4T MMF → Fed signaling cuts → Unknown territory

Double the 2009 powder keg. But now Bitcoin exists as 24/7 institutional-grade scarcity with ETF rails.

THE FOUR HORSEMEN TRIGGERS

3-month T-Bill drops below 4.0% from 4.8%
Fed confirms sequential cuts beyond one-and-done
High-yield spreads compress below 350bps
Crypto ETF inflows sustain above $2B weekly

All four converging = detonation sequence.

THE BITCOIN MATHEMATICS

MMF pile: $7.4 trillion at 5% yields
Bitcoin supply: 21 million fixed, 96% mined
BlackRock IBIT: $100B AUM in under 10 months

If 5% rotates ($370B): Bitcoin $280-350K
If 10% rotates ($740B): Bitcoin $550-700K
If 15%+ with sovereign buying: Bitcoin $1M+

Not speculation. Thermodynamics. Finite supply meets infinite liquidity in mathematical collision.

THE MECHANISM

MMFs flow through institutional architecture:
Prime brokerages rebalancing
Pension allocation triggers hitting
Corporate treasury deployments
Sovereign wealth hunting uncorrelated returns
ETFs absorbing without selling pressure

Every pipe terminates at scarcity. Only one asset is provably finite, instantly settlable, globally accessible 24/7: Bitcoin.

THE FED’S CHOICE

Keep rates high: Recession, debt spiral
Cut aggressively: $7.4T liquidity tsunami

Bond markets price 150-200bps cuts through 2026. The choice is made. The spring releases.

THE COUNTDOWN

When 3-month yields crater from 5% to 3%, capital doesn’t deliberate. It hunts yield with systemic urgency.

Gold supply: uncertain
Real estate: illiquid
Stocks: expensive
Bonds: debasing

Bitcoin: mathematically provable 21M cap with instant global settlement.

The largest dry powder pile in history aims at civilization’s scarcest asset.

The trigger is Fed policy in motion.
The timing is bond-market priced.
The outcome is thermodynamic inevitability.

When the spring releases, price discovery enters unknown physics.

Choose accordingly.