The four year cycle strikes again.
Bitcoin just had a weekly close below the 200W moving average.
The first time it closed below the 200W moving average in 2022 was also in June.
BITCOIN HAS BROKEN THE TRADITIONAL 4-YEAR CYCLE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 14 YEARS.
For the first time in Bitcoin’s history, the post-halving year has closed in red.
In past cycles, the pattern was consistent:
- Halving year usually closes green
- The year after the halving has historically been even stronger
- Then a cycle top and a deep bear market
This time looks different.
2024 (halving year) closed strong. 2025, instead of continuing higher, closed in red.
That breaks a 14-year pattern.
But this doesn’t automatically mean Bitcoin is weak. What’s changed is what drives Bitcoin now.
Earlier cycles were dominated by:
- Halving supply shocks
- Retail speculation
Today, Bitcoin moves more with:
- Liquidity conditions
- Interest rates
- Institutional flows
- Broader business cycles
The halving still matters, but its impact is smaller. In 2012, daily supply dropped by thousands of BTC. In 2024, the reduction was only a few hundred.
So instead of a clean 4-year rhythm, Bitcoin appears to be shifting into a liquidity driven cycle.
The cycle may not be broken, It may simply be maturing.
Всички се страхуват от бъдещето и нормално там е неизвестното. Но хората сме като една река след като един път е намерила Извора трябва да се влее в океана. Трябва да преминем през всички водопади за да стигнем до целта.
Какво е медитация:
Душевен тюнинг.
Прослушване на честотните канали.
Настройване към дадена честота.
Изчистване на шумовете.
Ако се появи картината, добре.
#Bitcoin will trap you before the next leg up ?🤔
Price consolidates for a few weeks inside a range & then breaks out in the opposite direction than the HTF trend.
Just to trap breakout traders followed by a quick reclaim & aggressive continuation in the direction of the main trend.
- Upside trap before downside move (In Downtrend)
- Downside trap before upside move (In Uptrend)
We have noticed two kinds of traps -
- Body Fakeout : This is what we saw in the downtrend, a Fakeout with Candle Body close out of the range followed by a range reclaim & continuation.
- Wick Fakeout : This is what we have seen so far since the $15,500 bottom. Price breaks down below the range on LTF & trades below the Important Weekly support zones for some time, but quickly reclaims it right before the weekly candle close.
Currently Price is still inside a range, we have already seen a wick fakeout till $38,500.
Nobody can guarantee if we have bottomed out or we are going to see more wicks or a proper body fakeout later but..
-> Fakeouts in Uptrend are for buying
-> Fakeouts in Downtrend are for selling
For better results, wait for Range reclaim or look for some LTF strength in the direction of main trend to confirm your bias.
- Bookmark this tweet so you don't get trapped 😉
- Like & RT Appreciated 🤝
1. We BUY in bottom 1/3 green area.
2. We HOLD & wait in middle 1/3 grey area.
3. We look for SELL signals in top 1/3 red area.
We explained months in advance why we'll buy most of 2023 in green area & now we're in grey area so our team is just HOLDING:
https://t.co/XZwZVT4Kcb
#Altcoins
Did you miss 2017? Then don't miss 2024.
First bullish MACD-Cross in over 3 years for the Altcoinmarketcap.
I don't know how high we will go, but it will be enough.
Things are going to get wild.🌪️🔥
Thought experiment: based on 8 billion world population, there is 0.0025 BTC per person. Not annually: that’s each person’s lifetime allotment.
If actuaries + economists place the productive value of each human life at ~$10mil, then $10m/0.0025BTC = ~$4 billion per #bitcoin 🤯
Commercial Bank Credit declined by more than 2% for only the 3rd time in the last 50 years. The other 2 occasions were at the peak of the Dot Com Bubble and the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis
#Bitcoin x Psychology of Crypto Market
Chart showing psychology of majority of the retail Investors, who mostly end up buying the top & selling the bottom
We are at stage '3' - its still below ATH