chassinou

[chassinou @chassinou]

@FrancoisCame l'hubris du type...

[Guillaume Kasbarian @guillaumekasba]

Il est temps de dire LA VÉRITÉ : d’ici 2070, les retraités seront 40% plus nombreux, les actifs 11% de moins.

Vous donnez déjà 28% de votre salaire pour financer les retraites contre 12% en 1970.

Sur 420 milliards, 1/3 est payé par l’État.

NOTRE SYSTÈME DE RETRAITE EST MORT

[chassinou @chassinou]

@BastienParisot @sebastiendelogu Quand on accuse on se justifie.

[Pascal Beuvelet @Pascal_Beuvelet]

"En France les intellectuels détestent le libéralisme, parce que dans un système libéral, ils seraient payés à leur vraie valeur"
Raymond Boudon

[chassinou @chassinou]

@JeanSecours Oui. Restons-nuancés en toutes choses 👌🏼

[chassinou @chassinou]

@Qraaal @VaeVix Merci d’avoir pris le temps d’écrire tout cela, c’est très intéressant.

[Batounet de Poisson 🌐🥐 @Qraaal]

Les robots et l’électronique (Fil 1/?)
Pourquoi on n'en a pas tant que ça en France

[chassinou @chassinou]

@ckikemort Oh c’est beau !

[chassinou @chassinou]

@Monsieur_Yog @meeboi77 @yt_LaMinuteInfo @Wikipedia Il n’y a pas plus aveugle que celui qui ne veut pas voir.

[Hanno Lustig @HannoLustig]

Cancel French debt held by the ECB? Why stop there if there is no cost to canceling ECB-held sovereign debt? The Banque de France could simply buy all of the French outstanding sovereign debt and cancel it.

If the BdF buys the entire €3.5tn stock, it funds the purchase with €3.5tn of reserves.** The debt isn't cancelled. It's been converted from ~8-year fixed-rate debt into overnight floating-rate debt. You haven't retired the liability. You've shortened its duration dramatically.

[**A thought experiment.The BdF can't do this, at least not when France is in the Eurozone.]

If you then canceled the debt, the BdF no longer earns any coupons on all the debt it had bought, but it's still paying interest on all of reserves held at BdF, which it issued to fund the purchases. The BdF isn't just paying the interest on reserves French banks happen to hold. It's also paying interest on that TARGET-2 liability to the Eurosystem. Without any coupon income from its bond holdings. Negative carry on €3.5 tn. That does not seem like a great plan. Maybe this is not a free lunch?

Back to reality. Roughly 90% of the Eurosystem's French government bond holdings currently sit on the Banque de France's own book. Only about 10% was bought by the ECB itself, and that slice is the only part subject to risk sharing .

So take the hypothetical €600bn held by the Eurosystem (illustrative numbers):

~€540bn is BdF's, at BdF's risk. France cancelling it is France forgiving itself. Zero net gain, and BdF's equity absorbs the whole hole. Now, you could recapitalize the Banque de France. That's going to cost French taxpayers. Or, if you don't (risky move), the French Treasury receives no dividend from the BdF for decades. Either way, there is cost to French taxpayers that offsets the benefit of lower coupon payments on the bonds.
~€60bn is the ECB's. Losses there are distributed by capital key. France's key is roughly 20%, so France would bear ~€12bn and the other members ~€48bn.

The only way this cancelation proposal makes any fiscal sense is if the BdF stops paying interest on reserves at BdF, mostly held by French banks. Otherwise you lock in negative carry for the BdF. But if you do that, that's a dramatic tax on French depositors and savers. That's what economists call financial repression. (And you've essentially monetized the debt).

Actually, France no longer even has this instrument because the reserve remuneration is decided by the ECB Governing Council, and it applies to the whole Eurosystem. If France did try to do something like this, banks would move their reserves to the Bundesbank in Frankfurt and France would end up with an even larger Target-2 liability.

During COVID, central banks were running huge balance sheets without articulating the trade-offs that are involved. And ex post they were framing any inflation that resulted as supply shock-driven without compelling evidence. If you do that, people might just believe you. They might really think that there are no trade-offs even if they should know better.

And, of course, this proposal violates a bunch of treaties and rules and regulations and laws. Art. 123 TFEU is the monetary financing prohibition. There is no separable "ECB tranche" to cancel. Those bonds are fungible with every other bond in the same series. So any cancellation would be a restructuring of the debt.

[chassinou @chassinou]

@JeanSecours @ChalussetG J’ai eu la joie d’y aller, c’était superbe. Elle va revenir pleine de très beaux souvenirs.

[chassinou @chassinou]

@BFMTV Pas la peine, il suffit de brûler la dette a-t-il dit.

[chassinou @chassinou]

@Draagonfire2 Je trouve assez glaçante la facilité avec laquelle il prend le public et son interlocuteur pour des cons. Il veut tranquillement mettre le feu au pays pour ramasser la mise avec un rôle politique, et/ou de fees pour son business.

[chassinou @chassinou]

@PierreKharmaz @stertrais @Amiel_David_ Ils s'en fichent. Il n'y a qu'à s'excuser devant une caméra de TV, et l'affaire est réglée.

[chassinou @chassinou]

@philippejeanpr1 @chdevoogd Rien ne nous sera épargné.

[chassinou @chassinou]

@diaz_edwige Il va falloir sabrer dans les charges et les impôts pour rendre l’effort marginal intéressant. Mais cela suppose de couper ailleurs…

[chassinou @chassinou]

@p_brun Appuyer sur le frein et l’accélérateur en même temps. Que pourrait-il se produire ?

[Repo (French nerd, #1 Max Cavalera fan) @MickQuid2202]

Page de publicité @TF1 (28/12/1998)
Extrait d'une VHS de ma collection.

[Ben Cooper @LaunchPhoto]

SUCCESS! Total Solar Eclipse 2026 from just outside the rural town of Duraton, Spain.