@samisosa1234 In the last Arihant Conference I tried to trade an SME. Every thing went well till the promoter gave a guidance of 10-15 percent and the stock quickly went down.
@anupammahor Rightly said. The last time I was hit with a blackswan, i made the mistake of keeping the shares. The stock crashed to penny levels and have not recovered even after a year.
Had read the concall shortly after the company announced a preferential issue. One participant asked how they had arrived at the valuation for the preferential allotment. The promoter seemed completely clueless.
Sometimes, the market gives you rare opportunities to simply stay away.
One angle on #SWSOLAR that I donโt see being discussed much:
-Tata Sons listing could actually help SWSOLAR indirectly.
1. #SWSOLAR still has a fair amount of legacy baggage. At FY26-end, contingent liabilities were around โน535 cr. But hereโs the interesting part, roughly โน503 cr of that is covered by indemnities. So the bigger question has always been: how good is that indemnity really?
2. And thatโs where the SP Groupโs debt situation matters.On paper, SWSOLAR may be protected.
But if the party giving the indemnity itself is stretched financially, the market will naturally put a discount on that protection.That fear has probably been one of the overhangs on the stock.
3. To be fair, SP has honoured these claims earlier.Even the latest indemnity claim of about โน174.5 cr was paid. So itโs not that the indemnity has proved worthless.
The concern is more about what happens if a much larger claim comes up later.
4. Now look at Tata Sons.
SP owns roughly 18.4% of it.
That is an extremely valuable asset, but today it isnโt very liquid.
If Tata Sons gets listed, that changes things quite dramatically.
SP doesnโt even need to sell its entire stake.A listed Tata Sons gives them a much easier route to raise money.That should improve their overall financial flexibility.
5. And that matters to SWSOLAR.
If the market becomes more comfortable that SP can honour future indemnity claims, the perceived risk around SWSOLARโs legacy liabilities comes down.
โน503 cr of indemnified contingent liabilities is almost 12% of SWSOLARโs current market cap.
6. So the way I see it:
Tata Sons listing โ stronger SP liquidity โ more confidence in the indemnity โ lower legacy-risk discount for #SWSOLAR
Not a recommendation.