M. Chatib Basri

Fmr Minister of Finance Indonesia. Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics Univ of Indonesia. Visiting Scholar Harvard CID; Visiting Prof in Practice LSE CETEx

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

Just out “ Tax Administration versus Tax Rates: Evidence from Corporate Taxation in Indonesia”
American Economic Review Dec 2021.

M. Chatib Basri, Mayara Felix, @rema_nadeem and @Ben_Olken

https://t.co/jf9zcsoQ34

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

A sharp observation, and you’re right about the arithmetic. Bcs the thresholds are defined as multiples of the poverty line, we r effectively deflating by the poverty basket. The poverty line increased from Rp425,250 in March 2019 to Rp582,932 in March 2024 around 37%, compared with cumulative CPI inflation of roughly 16%. So even in CPI real terms, the lower middle class threshold increased by almost 20%. Since food accounts for around 74% of the poverty basket, with rice as the largest component, part of the story is clearly about relative food prices.

BUT INFLATION FOR WHOM? Households near the lower-middle threshold spend a much larger share of their budget on food than the representative household underlying the CPI weights. For them, the poverty line deflator is likely the more appropriate measure of the cost of living. Saying that “real expenditure rose at every percentile” also reflects a choice of deflator. It answers a different question, not necessarily the one most relevant for households near the poverty line.

More importantly, the conclusion does not hinge on the choice of deflator alone. As of 2024, median middleclass expenditure (around Rp2.85 million per month) sits much closer to the lower threshold than to the middle of the band. Bank Indonesia’s consumer survey also shows households allocating a rising share of income to consumption and a declining share to saving over 2022–2024 (makan tabungan). Employment has also become more informal. So the picture is a combination of relative price effects and weak income growth. That’s why we describe our finding as a conditional association rather than a causal claim. Whether one concludes that the middle class has “shrunk” depends partly on the metric. But whichever metric one prefers, the picture is one of a middle class under increasing economic pressure.

[Joshua Walker @joshuawalkersoc]

Puzzle: Why do the World Bank, BPS and Basri + Wihardja claim the middle class has shrunk despite their data showing real gains for every percentile?

Explanation: They're deflating expenditure values using the National Poverty Line, not the CPI (a very unusual thing to do).

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

Kelas menengah yang menyusut membuat kegelisahan bertambah. Namun, kegelisahan tidak selalu berakhir di jalan. Temuan kami menunjukkan bahwa di daerah dengan penetrasi internet yang tinggi dan ruang media sosial yang lebih bebas, demonstrasi justru cenderung lebih sedikit. Mengapa? Tulisan saya bersama Maria Monica Wihardja dan Abror Tegar Pradana di Fulcrum
https://t.co/8fSB0ixumQ

[ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute @ISEAS]

By Muhamad Chatib Basri, Maria Monica Wihardja & Abror Tegar Pradana - Empirical evidence shows that a shrinking middle class in Indonesia has led to a growing number of protests. This is pertinent not only to Indonesia, but for other countries... https://t.co/1KY7Y6N3Mx

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

@yusufaakbar Sukses terus ya

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

Op-ed saya di Kompas dalam bentuk lisan oleh Wakil RedPel @hariankompas @tomytrinugroho

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

Argentina!!!!

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

Ini berita baik. Selamat untuk kerja keras pemerintah Indonesia terutana @KemenkeuRI dan Bank Indonesia @bank_indonesia

[Bloomberg @business]

S&P Global Ratings maintained its stable outlook on Indonesia and affirmed its long-term foreign-currency issuer rating at BBB https://t.co/yfWrwIC6ul

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

Ini berita baik!

[Bloomberg @business]

S&P Global Ratings maintained its stable outlook on Indonesia and affirmed its long-term foreign-currency issuer rating at BBB https://t.co/yfWrwIC6ul

[Bloomberg @business]

S&P Global Ratings maintained its stable outlook on Indonesia and affirmed its long-term foreign-currency issuer rating at BBB https://t.co/yfWrwIC6ul

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

@gitaputrid 😂😂 Km SD Argentina?

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

Argentina vs Inggris di semi final! Bingung dukung siapa. Kalah jadi arang menang jadi abu ini 😂

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

Memang sulit. Ini seperti memilih antara sate kambing Casmadi dan Hanjawar

[Angga @angga__46]

Argentina punya mental juara, tapi secara permainan dan materi pemain, Inggris lebih bagus. Bingung juga sih 😂

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

Saya lebih suka taktik Scaloni. Taktik Milei sudah saya coba pada rambut saya: memangkas habis semuanya, dan hasilnya seperti yang Anda lihat di foto profil 😅

[Oxygen Breathing😤 @Arrazzi9]

@ChatibBasri Bagusan taktik bola scaloni atau taktik ekonomi milei pak dede? 😅

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

Argentina!!!

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

England!!!!!

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

This is such very sad news. I first met Assaf at the NBER East Asia Seminar in Melbourne in 2002. I was immediately struck by how brilliant he was, and by his dedication to his research. It was a privilege to have known him. He will be greatly missed.

[Francesco Bianchi @Francesco_Bia]

I am very sad to learn about the passing of Assaf Razin. Assaf and I overlapped only briefly at Cornell, but he had a lasting impact on me, both professionally and personally. A true scholar, and also an interesting and open minded person

https://t.co/ptJI0WB8St

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

@amrtd_id @mhanzel18 Ya benar. Saya tidak pernah ingin jadi ekonom

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

Terima kasih Matthew

[Matthew Hanzel @mhanzel18]

Tulisan ini sekali lagi mengonfirmasi kenapa saya jadi pengagum Pak @ChatibBasri. Bukan cuma gegara (kebetulan) sesama Kanisian 😀, tapi karena beliau selalu mampu melakukan salah satu tugas terberat dalam dunia komunikasi: menjelaskan dengan sederhana.

[Harvard Kennedy School @Kennedy_School]

“Bolivia could be a green energy powerhouse.” Instead of subsidizing fossil fuels, HKS's @ricardo_hausman says the country should instead be taking advantage of its massive amounts of hydropower & solar energy.

Read about the @HarvardGrwthLab report ➡️ https://t.co/eV3mn8eYX9.

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

Innalillahi wa innailaihi rojiun. Duka cinta yang mendalam atas meninggalnya kawan saya Rachmat Gobel. Selamat jalan kawan 🥲